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The Forum > Article Comments > Peak oil and retirement > Comments

Peak oil and retirement : Comments

By Michael Lardelli, published 6/10/2008

When planning for retirement in a post-peak oil world a new attitude is needed.

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There are some dark sub themes here that people may not be ready to think about. For example if summer temperatures hit 50C by 2020 or sooner will the aged baby boomers still get air conditioning? For having demanded a hefty price for entry into home ownership, Gen Y may decide to let the baby boomers do it tough. On the other hand Gen Y has little knowledge of hard times and may respect the wisdom of the elders. By 2020 will anybody have a secure job? Perhaps young and old will be picked up each morning by electric bus and dispatched to work in the fields. No wages, just a bag of vegies to take home. Those who don't see this coming are ignoring the early signs.
Posted by Taswegian, Monday, 6 October 2008 8:28:10 AM
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As everyone points out our civilisation is built upon cheap energy. The best way for us all to save for our retirements is for our society to continue to invest in renewables until they give us cheap energy.

We CAN have cheap renewables if we invest enough money in building capacity.

All engineering systems become more efficient the more of them we build. This is the socalled learning curve and it applies to all engineering system. We find that each doubling of capacity of whatever product we build will drop the unit price between 10% and 50% depending on the type of product. If we take 20% as the reduction then after 3 doublings of capacity the cost per unit is halved. Solar thermal and geothermal are about $5,000 capital cost per continuous kw with running costs of 1 cent per kwh. The best coal plants are about $1500 with running costs of 2 cents per kwh. If we increase our renewable capacity 30 times over existing capacity the capital cost of renewables will be about the same as coal with half the running costs. Seems like a no brainer investment on which to build a retirement to me. I would suggest people 10 years or more out from retirement DEMAND that their super funds invest in renewable energy sources.

Visit http://cscoxk.wordpress.com/2008/09/23/financing-renewables-and-solving-the-financial-crisis/ to see how to reduce emissions and solve the credit crisis at the same time. It really is very simple.
Posted by Fickle Pickle, Monday, 6 October 2008 10:09:11 AM
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The NYMEX has light sweet crude trading at $98 in 2013. That looks like a good investment for the peak oilers! (Brian Matthews' recent post concerning humankind's alarming tendency to millenarianism is probably more relevant, though.)
Posted by OC617, Monday, 6 October 2008 10:33:48 AM
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I turn 65 today but I still ride my bike to work every day and decline to own a car. I was a disciple of Ivan Illich who said suburbia was the curse of western society and we had a duty to live within walking or cycling or public transport distance of our place of work and I followed that dictum all my life.

It's great to see more people on bikes these days, though it's still more blokes than women - maybe more workplaces need to provide women a place to change and shower. No excuse after retirement though, but I reckon I might get one of those electric power assisted bikes after I'm 75 or 80, as Hobart is very hilly.
Posted by Pedr Fardd, Monday, 6 October 2008 11:26:06 AM
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Interesting item Michael,
Further to your thoughts on the life of computers after PO, I have
been looking for information on the telecommunications network after PO.
Some people working directly in the field feel that with the decent in
place, as soon as manufacturing difficulties occur, the network will
become unreliable. The network is basically in a hand to mouth supply
as far as spares are concerned.

The internet of course will descend at the same rate.
So it will be back to copper landlines, if they have not been stolen
for scrap. We will then be relying on HF radio for our long distance
communications.

The sudden discovery by some people that the money in circulation is
less than the amount that actually exists and the demand that extra
cash be inserted into the system to make up for the shortfall will
cause very significant inflation. Perhaps the oil shortage is being
caused by the lubrication of printing presses ?
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 6 October 2008 2:22:38 PM
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A quick check of The Economist of 19 June this year will show that venture capital is already investing in renewable energy technology. Indeed, some argue that current levels of investment resemble the beginnings of the dot com boom. We can expect, then, that renewable energy technologies will get cheaper, mope reliable and more efficient, in much the same way as computer and related technologies have done, as the market and capitalist ingenuity drive them forward.

It is a geological impossibility for the world to run out of oil, but oil will inevitably become more expensive to find and recover over time. In this case, we can expect that our future energy demands will not decrease, indeed it would be an economic disaster if they were to do so, but that they will be met by a much wider mix of technologies than is currently the case.
Posted by Senior Victorian, Monday, 6 October 2008 3:15:19 PM
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