This is all going to look rather daft if the coming summer is a scorcher. True this southern winter has been cold but remember it was only in March that Adelaide had 13 straight days over 100F. GW deniers are spoilt for choice on variations to the theme 'CO2 is not the problem'. If not sunspots it could be cosmic rays or planetary wobbles. Compounding the problem is the happy news that China is running out of coal. Emissions driving warming might slow or perhaps the melting ice and tundra will take over where humans left off. These intricacies need real scientists to decipher, not backyarders.

Good article, Mark. The whole greenhouse debate would benefit from a lot more focus on the actual empirical evidence, as you have assembled it here.

The litmus test for "settled" science, in any physical science, is not consensus; it is the existence of models that can predict accurately. On that test climate science is not yet settled. That's not to say that the AGW theory has been proved wrong, but it is to say that no theory has yet been proved right.

I thought the IPCC report producers had eliminated the sun from having any bearing on the earth's climate .. have they reconsidered?

The models that have been used for years have now been shown to be rather too simplistic as none of them predicted the cooling, or lack of warming for the past or so years, I note that there are plenty of edits to the IPCC and other reports with the benefit of hindsight, but we're told that now we should believe the new predictions .. rather a loss of credibility there I think.

The bottom line is, we can't tell what the climate will do, nor can we tell what will or will not affect it. I know that will hurt some feelings and challenge some belief systems, but look at the evidence, not the rantings of prophets .. you know they used to stone "false prophets" ? Maybe that would make some people more circumspect in their headlong desire for attention to consider the damage they do when alarming the public.

Nickisname: "Good article, Mark. The whole greenhouse debate would benefit from a lot more focus on the actual empirical evidence, as you have assembled it here."

What rot. What about hearing from some actual active climate scientists, instead of journalists? Online Opinion is really exposing is biases by giving so many of these twits so much air time. Online democracy indeed - who chooses these authors?

It is clear from his conclusion from his "graphs" that he really doesn't have a clue: "However, none of the centres can point to anything but failure for the IPCC.". Completely unsubstantiated rubbish. Show me such conclusions in the research reflected by climate science journals. There are no such conclusions.

Arguing about short-term temperature ups and downs and predictions thereof is akin to looking at the tide going in and out, seeing a low tide and saying "well I guess the sea can't be rising". Its just childishly stupid.

"well I guess the sea can't be rising".

"The arctic sea ice isn't melting and the world's glaciers are not retreating either" I suppose.

Perhaps the deniers should be looking at what is actually happening instead of theorising as to to what might not be happening.

David

It's tiring to see deniers trying to make something of a short-term trend rather than the long term temperature record. It smacks of clutching at straws. Take the last hundred years as a trend, do some research on what is driving climate change and find out that an incremental increase is unlikley - it will probably come in pulses, and try to understand that scientific bodies themselves rarely rely on short-term forecasting as they accept the variability from year to year may blur the long-term trend.

Just because there is very little patience and an inability to look long-term in the denial camp (they're all looking for the next bandwagon to jump on to) doesn't mean that long-term change is not taking place and that, at this stage is doesn't appear that we are likely see the dramatic and rapid changes they seem to think that should be happening to prove the warming trend. It won't happen overnight, but it will happen!