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Can renewables meet public and political expectations? : Comments
By Tom Biegler, published 20/5/2016The prospects for renewable energy have been oversold. We need to prepare for the possibility that renewables cannot supply all future energy needs.
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Australian GDP and power sector emissions are both growing about 2% a year so the nexus is not broken. AEMO tells us eastern Australia should worry about gas supply by 2019. In the following decade several big coal baseload stations will have to be retired. To be replaced by Twh scale batteries? A current worry with lithium battery systems is that they haven't paid for themselves by the time the battery needs replacing.
Then there is Australia's parlous dependence on imported oil having been mostly self sufficient in the late 20th century. Electric cars will not only require price reductions to achieve mass uptake but there must be some way of charging millions of them at night when solar is zero and the wind may or may not be blowing.
So that's three energy knockout blows by 2030 ... near total oil vulnerability, gas in short supply and big coal stations needing replacement. Hopefully renewables enthusiasts and their attentive politicians will grasp the difficulty of the problem.