Meanwhile SportsBet still lists a Labor victory in the coming election at odds of nine to two against. I think I'll believe them, rather than you, Graham. I know that nobody's yet gone broke underestimating the intelligence of the electorate, but you may well be the first. Readers, if you want to take True Believers' money (and why not, they've taken enough of ours), then back Abbott, at 1.18 to one.

An excellent piece of analysis, Graham, one endorsed by the Channel 7 poll.

Now that we can sing: 'Ding Dong, the witch is gone,' LABOR is back in the game. And the resignations by the immature and the petulant combined with the lessons learned from Rudd's three years in the wilderness will enable Rudd to build a new party.

Abbot's purchase on the leadership is ever more tenuous and the man he narrowly defeated, Malcolm Turnbull, is waiting in the wings.

We live in interesting times!

...It’s not “Just” Rudd…It’s the new team…very refreshing….This new approach launches Labor back into the contest at the very least!

Jon J:

...If your a betting man, you've heard of a "Mud Runner" Jon..! Rudd is definitely on a wet track on the way to the post...!

Graham,

Don't worry, remember that most of the MSM is controlled by Coalition supporters and we have compulsory voting, so the appeal will be to the lowest common denominator, the Liberals can't possibly lose.

Rudd had better go to an election quickly, as the more people see of him, the more they will realize what a no hoper he really was last time. As for changing his spots, you've got to be kidding.

Perhaps he has finally been refused that senior UN job he has been using us to angle for, & decided this is the best he can hope for.

Still the one thing I see as a bit strange is that his lying, [I will not challenge again for leadership] appears to be accepted, but Gillard's was not. Perhaps he is simply a more accomplished liar.

If by Labor, Greens and Coalition voters, Graham means those who voted that way last time, the extraordinarily high disapproval rating for Abbott among Greens and ALP voters suggests he is an extremely hard sell to anyone but existing Coalition supporters.

The real story is not how terrible the ALP is but how the narrative has somehow shifted from how unelectable Abbott is.

If I were the betting type, I would be putting my money on Labor quickly while the odds are so favourable. Down now to 4.5.

I suppose we can all get it wrong, but I am dumbfounded why Rudd has any appeal. For me, overrated and great on selling rhetoric.

I prefer Gillard any day, albeit she could not sell the Labor message for a number of reasons.

The fact that many very competent ministers resigned tells the true story.

Their resignations are a true measure of their immaturity. They were supposed to represent their constituents rather than take sides over leadership and go down with the deeply flawed Gillard ship.

Rudd has changed. They couldn't.

Good riddance to bad rubbish!

Chris Lewis,

It's interesting that those "competent" ministers were heading a government that was fast on its way down the political gurgler.

Obviously competence is overrated when vying for electoral success.

Kevin Rudd is a man beloved by his party, by all public servants, by we the pubic, a Statesman, and a man of vision.

Suspicions that he is a "Hatter in Search of a Tea Party" or a "Duracell Bunny on Speed" are without foundation.

I don't believe Labour can win?
Too much water under the bridge and too many completely disenchanted former Labour supporters?
Even so, I am looking forward to a genuine contest and a subsequent effective opposition?
And perhaps, a gentler kinder parliament!
LOL, ROF!
Rhrosty.

Come on poirot,

Garrett and Combet and Conroy (and Gillard) are indeed amongst Labor's best. Rudd would have had them, but he could not get them because they indeed know what he is like.

Like I said, we can all get it wrong or right, but my observation of Rudd over a long time is that he a great propagandist who seeks to appeal to all, but does not deliver. I predicted it (Quadrant 2007), and he did not let me down. He is overrated, but a great speaker and great on saying what most like to hear.

Labor needs people like Combet any day when compared to Rudd, albeit he had been brought back because he is popular.

There is no way I am going back to Labor with the likes of Rudd around.

I will leave it to others to get excited.

I have $100.00 to say Rudd will lose Griffith. What odds will you give me?

100 to one?

'Our panel consists of people who are more interested in current affairs than the average voter. The results therefore tend to predict what less interested voters will decide to do when they absorb and analyse more of the facts.'

A very dubious assertion.

Mac. The MSM mostly controlled by coalition supporters? Does that include Sydney Morning Herald, the Age, SBS, ABC, Aus Guardian etc etc?
"Duracell Bunny on Speed". This is translated into real people as psychopathic. This guy is reeeely scary.

Labour needs the likes of Combet, Albo and the replacement treasurer much more than the psychopath. As Rhrosty says, we do need a genuine opposition in the future.

A rush to an election, before the 'real Rudder' reappears is in the best interest of Labour. He has so many of his previous policy decision to undo before Australia can recover from this farce.

Pompete

"The MSM mostly controlled by coalition supporters? Does that include Sydney Morning Herald, the Age, SBS, ABC, Aus Guardian etc etc?"

The real measure is the market, and most of that is controlled by (1) the odious Murdoch and his hacks/hackers, (2) commercial radio is mostly the preserve of anti-Labor ranters and (3) commercial TV's scaremongering serves the Coalition very well indeed.

I'd agree that talent on both sides is in extremely short supply, and our politics is a circus--I blame compulsory voting since both sides have to appeal to the dead heads. As to the "real Rudd", I'd rather risk the "real Rudd" than the "real Abbot" any day. Speaking of "real", has anyone seen the real Labor Party, it's been missing for years?

Well thank god we never have to see the real Gillard, or any other Gillard ever again.

Unfortunately, like the similarly competence-challenged Anna Bligh, Julia Gillard will not be content with her large fully indexed superand benefits, she will want to swing from the taxpayers' teat in some guvvy job that has been lined up for her courtesy of the mateship of the Leftie Grrls' Club, Emily's List.

Hasbeen, I don't often agree with you but on this occasion, I completely endorse your comment.

Ah, bliss, no more Gillard!

Yay for that :)

I hear Julia may get a UN job. Her strine accent representing Australia.

Hasbeen,

Agreed, Gillard was an embarrassment, both for the way she gained power and for her performance as PM.

Giddyap, the show pony is back !

There area whole lot of reasons why the Gillard govt was so unpopular, but Rudd being better than Gillard was not one of them.

I'm not all that sure the greens can maintain their increase in the polls.
They have to be associated with the worst parts of the Gillard policy paradigm!
In fact many might conclude they forced her to accept the carbon tax she promised not to introduce, as their pound of flesh price for incumbency!?
Gillard has paid the ultimate price, and if we believe in a fair go, so also should the greens.
And, I'm almost certain Labour's electoral prospects will be further improved, if they move their preferences away from the greens!
Particularly, if they consider the electoral harm done to them by the green intransigence over an ETS; and or, a regional refugee policy.
They would be better served by preferencing a far more pragmatic Katter; and or, an eccentric Palmer?
And Labour will not be hurt by their new attitude towards marriage equality!
And refugees who arrive by irregular means minus any identifying documentation, ought to be denied anything besides automatic repatriation.
We could increase/double our regular refugee intake, if those applying keep their documentation and applied for a visa, where that is possible.
The fact that boat people have destroyed critical identification, which they need to actually transition to Indonesia or Malaysia, also identifies them as economic migrants!? One doesn't destroy information that supports their case!
Rudd would be well advised to continue to call these people economic migrants, rather than genuine asylum seekers; most of who are forced to wait many more years for their turn, courtesy of this trade!
Automatic repatriation would deny the people smugglers any product to ever sell to anybody!
And as the very first consequence, end the terrible drowning of hundreds of men women and children at sea!
Rhrosty.

Chris Lewis,

Rudd is obviously a 'better' choice in regard to Labor's electoral prospects.

mac,

It would seem so.....

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-30/galaxy-poll-results-show-rudd-is-preferred-prime-minister/4789860

The resignations were not due to petulance. These people have worked with Rudd and know his nature. It is a narrow view that sees these resignations as purely some miffed response. Politicians are ambitions, self-interested and driven. They would not resign unless for good reasons.

Mike Seccombe on ABC Insiders this morning stated he doesn't know why people like Rudd more than Gillard but it appears they do. I tend to agree that seems the case.

Labor does have a better chance at the election with Rudd of that there is no doubt. It is a shame the electorate does not have his measure and that the undermining of Gillard's leadership was made easier by the anti-Gillard brigade including elements of the media. This is not to say that Gillard's leadership was not flawed in some ways but her positive achievements are being ignored. Maybe history will be kinder.

People may argue that Howard had haters (and he did) but the vitriole towards Gillard was ever-present and of greater intensity. The use of phrases like 'ding dong the witch has gone' is one such indication spurred on by the Conservative Right wing media.

What does it say about us as a nation where a leader like Rudd is so admired. Surely the public can see through the U.S. style charisma and manipulation? The answer is by all accounts No.

I hope Kerry-Ann Walsh's new book will be an honest account of Rudd and not the kinder and sanitised version by James Button's 'Speechless'.

yes, I realise he is back because he is popular, but that does not mean that he is any good; I share the opinion of the many that resigned.

Rudd is overrated and I wish the ALP was not in this situation where they rely on him for a victory. Sad state of affairs for me.

As for me, I will vote independent in the electorate of Indi. I hope that more independents now get up to improve the state of public debate in this country. Listening to Tony Windsor today, who has always impressed me greatly, was enough for me.

Well, everyone loves a winner, at least someone with a chance, rather than a lame duck. For 25 years Labor leaders were 'sound' loyal team players, unfortunately they were also an electoral liability---the party has become more pragmatic.

I'd agree that Oz politics has become 'presidential', a significant percentage of the voters think that we elect prime ministers, so obviously, to those voters, Gillard was not legit.

I like Rudd. I like him more because so many of the factional appointees hate him. I like his intelligence and his commitment to the values I think are important. I like his family and their obvious love for each other.

I like his positivity and the way he judged his moment so that there was no time for the threats and intimidation of the crooks who put Gillard in place to be effective before the election. Crean deseerves praise for his courage in making them show their hand earlier to his own detriment.

I like that he put Wong in charge of the Senate. She is a very smart cookie and she is committed to her costituency, not to the Gillard-created Emily's List, despite being a mamber. I like that he has put homelessness and housing into the same portfolio as status of women and given it a cabinet seat. For far too long the plight of seriously disadvantaged people of both sexes has been ignored while femocrats get fat on the Government teat. Many homeless and unemployed men exist because of those femocrats and so do many unhappy and over-worked women.

I only hope he has a vision for the future that doesn't rely on the pretence of wealth enabled by consumerism and debt, while sabotaging the means to pay for it that the productive industries provide.

I'm optimistic. I live in Rudd's electorate and I was going to vote minor parties, but I'll give the ALP one more shot now. That relieves me, because I've never voted against the party.

Chris Lewis,

Can I take it that you don't consider Australian politics to be richer now that we have a more robust contest this coming election?

Poirot, it is certainly much more robust now; it would not be good if Coalition smashed it and dominated both houses. I want to see a plularity of voices, always have.

I also like some of the topics raised by Rudd in recent days, I just don't have any faith in him to deliver or to negotiate. It is either his way, or the highway.

I'm glad Rudd has made it possible for me to vote LABOR at the next election.

I would've voted for Abbot instead of Gillard but now I don't have to.

It is unlikely that I'm alone!

Chris Lewis,

I suppose if Rudd has sufficient wisdom, then he will have learned from his failure to consult the first time around.

I think he'd be mindful that not many get a second bite of cherry in his position.

If he's wise, he'll succeed.

If he falls back into old habits, he won't.

If the new polls are declaring that Labor and the Coalition are neck-and-neck, I would suggest that, for all that, Labor has to win twelve seats to stay in the game - nine to replace ministers who have retired, two to replace the two Independents Oakeshott and Windsor, and one to replace Thomson, then we should be thinking of a current notional distribution of 60 to 84 or so.

And this may be as good as it gets for Rudd, unless the Coalition makes some monumentally stupid mistakes. But, very roughly, for every mistake Rudd makes, let's imagine that Labor loses one more seat.

So let's see - in four days, Rudd has:

* slightly irritated Indonesia;

* called a colleague 'anally-retentive', not guaranteed to win votes;

* you get the picture.

October 12 or 26 ?

Plenty of time to make some real beauties !

Coalition by 96 to 48.

Loudmouth,

"*slightly irritated Indonesia"

I think you'll find that the main party who was "slightly irritated" was Julie Bishop.

(You get the picture:)

If Rudd were a genuine, rather than a Sunday Christian, he could do worse than “forgive those who trespass against him”.
He should invite, even insist, on Gillard staying (hers, is after all, a relatively safe seat, and they need all they can get).
Getting past the misogyny, the nasal twang and the looks (if only she were as handsome as John Howard...) Gillard was an excellent performer in Parliament, and a great negotiator. The general consensus of those in the know appears to be that neither Rudd nor Abbott could have handled a hung parliament as well.
In fact, Rudd's weaknesses are Gillard's strengths, and vice versa. If they weren't so ego driven, they could play to each other's strengths, instead of highlighting each other's weaknesses.

Grim,

So you don't think it was in the best interests of Labor's re-election chances to arrest the slide into political oblivion?

I agree that Gillard was a powerful parliamentary performer. However, it's something that didn't translate into electoral appeal.

The opposite, in fact.

Poirot, I think you can be both.

I believe Howard was. When working in a factory in early 1990s, and then a fanatical ALP supporter, I always said Howard should be leader. Articulate and effective, often putting the smart ... Keating in his place through intellect and decency.

and I know the left will not agree, but satisfaction to polies actually went up under Howard as he addressed some of majority's concerns

G'day Poirot,
Absolutely. I think Gillard should have stood down months ago, for the good of the party. It seems Australia just isn't ready for a female PM yet -particularly one who got the top spot by less than noble means.
I'm merely suggesting if Rudd wants to unite the Labor Party, he should start by giving Gillard a cabinet position. And, let her do the negotiating.
I hardly think she'll ever be a threat to him again.

how labor voters are so fickle. they got rid of Rudd after the polls showed he was not popular with labor voters. now he says hes a changed man. thats after most of his own party hated him and were saying things like he is dysfunctional and a narcissist. he had dismantled the refugee policy which started this influx of boats now over 17,000 a year. his NBN is in turmoil with delays and costs blowing out. his insulation bat scheme has cost 4 lives and many house fires. the school hall bundle has cost millions and still mounting. his emissions trading scheme was a failure and the mining tax has been a joke. his green loan scheme is being audited amongst concerns of rorting by energy assessors.
the hand outs for floods was rorted and cost millions. Schools stimulus program waste. Plan for 260 new childcare centers axed - Nurses recruiting scheme failed - Computers to every senior student failed. GP Super clinics failed, Trades training centers failed.
he has been in the shadows as a smiling assassin making hell for his own party as revenge for being dumped and he says he has now changed and wants everyone to be kinder. then in the next breath says the LNP will cause a conflict with Indonesia with their stopping the boats. he struts around saying he has installed the most women to the front bench thats because there wasn't many left after most of them refused to work with him because they know what hes really like. it seems the labor voters are basing their support on personality and not competence. well on both counts he fails miserably.

it seems labor has developed a split personality complex. first we had Kevin 07. then it was egotistical Kevin and dysfunctional Kevin. then we had back stabbing Julia, then julialiar. next we had slush fund Julia and women's right Julia, hypocritical Julia then the new Julia. the warm Julia, the spectacle wearing Julia and finally the knitting Julia. now we have the new Kevin, the all inclusive and changed Kevin and the lets be kinder to each other Kevin. as opposed to the smiling assassin Kevin and the disruptive vengeful Kevin. so really there are lots of candidates to choose from. which one do you trust.

Graham Young
Any idea as to how many voters might not vote-go informal?

From talking to a number of old time labor friends a lot have said things like- I cannot vote for Rudd ..I will not vote at all.
In some marginal seats could this be a factor?

I vote that Chris Lewis be elected Tony's right-hand man.

He has expressed so many contradictory views about Rudd that his real position is confused, perhaps deliberately so.

Does Tony give you your writing points each day, Chris? Do you have his photograph hanging over your bed? Do you get excited when you see a photo of Tony wearing his budgie-smugglers?

I predict that Rudd will be elected in a landslide!

The electorate is too smart to elect Abbott!

David G
Mr Rudd is not sane.

No contradiction whatsoever.

I am voting independent in Indi, because I am not happy with Mirabella and I believe that more independents will improve debate.

I still have to order my vote though, so issue of who I put ahead (ALP or Coalition remains). I have weighed it up, and it will be Coalition. This is despite me having much more affinity with issues such as a nations's industrial prowess and adequate standard of livings and opportunity for all. That is my judgment call.

As for barracking for Abbott, I am hoping that signs I have seen are good enough, but would not be surprised if he des not deliver should he be elected. I, for one, who does not salivate over tossers like Rudd, know that governance today is a very hard game

There is much the same feeling about as when Gough puffed himself up and his supporters though that his star could rise again.

This is a lot of superficial stuff going on. But with the pencil stubs in their hands voters will remember Labor's train wrecks and the union scandals.

Labor will be trashed. The misfortune is that thanks to the Roman Candle, Kevin Rudd, manipulators like this fellow will be returned,

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2012/apr/27/australian-minister-video

more typos: 'though' should be 'thought'

Oh well..

Simon Crean's going ?

85 to 59.

onthebeach,

"Labor will be trashed...."

Don't count your chickens......

http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2013/calculator/?mode=overall&overall=0.9&nsw=0&vic=0&qld=0&wa=0&sa=0&tas=0&act=0&nt=0&retiringmps=false&melb=alp

Kim Carr and Joel Fitzgibbon are back ?

83 to 61.

Hi Poirot,

I moved that little red pointer thing to give Labor a 2.5 % swing and clearly Labor will win by 86 to 62 ! Even my local member will get back in !

And if you move it to a swing of 5 %, Labor comes out ahead with 95 to 53 ! The Coalition are going to be decimated !

Sweet !

Poirot, "Don't count your chickens"

True.

However it does have that weird feeling of unreality and a parallel with 1975, when we all believed that Gough would romp it home. For nostalgia,

http://whitlamdismissal.com/1975/11/24/whitlam-1975-election-policy-speech.html

Totally different circumstances of course.

Rudd's biggest threat is being whiteanted by the media, just as it was previously.

I remember 1975 as a youngster. I remember all the hype about Whitlam to win, but he got smashed. The people voted alright and judged Labor no longer competent.

Loudmouth,

I believe that was Antony Green's rendering of the results of the latest Morgan Poll.

(Which is why it was as it was)

In your dreams, Poirot :)

A record number of women in the Ministry ?

81 Coalition to 63 Labor. Rudd only has to get a dozen more things right, and nothing wrong, and they might be in the game.

Wow, and I had a defeated Gillard team on 110 Coalition to 34 Labor.

A week sure is a long time in politics.

Loudmouth,

Sorry to pop you bubble (and yes, I realise you'll put it down to the "bounce")....but Antony Green was going by this:

http://www.roymorgan.com/findings/morgan-poll-july1-2013-201307010635

Seen any substance from Tony yet?

If you do, be sure to post a link.

Seen any action yet by Labor to deal with the corruption that festers in the party and in the unions?

That is why the Greens/Gillard government was on the nose with voters. That and the cold hard fact that many in the community have less spending power - a fact that spin cannot gloss over. How can large increases in government taxes and charges be forgotten on polling day?

Kevin Rudd is magic for a short time. But voters will react on polling day just as they did with Whitlam. Apparent support for Whitlam skyrocketed after the dismissal and supporters believed he might even gain seats! But Whitlam never could get over the stink of past scandals, one being the Khemlani loans affair.

Who has enough front or is it stupidity to say that the present Labor government's scandals are lesser to Whitlam's? Back then, Labor strategists believed that the 'punters' (a tag that shows just what some politicians and commentators think of voters!) had the memory of a gnat and spin could paper over rot. They thought that rhetoric of fear waged against Malcolm Fraser would work its magic. However, voters are not stupid as thought, just patient, and patience over-stretched does not return.

The Left really truly have very little regard for the intelligence of voters and the Left always come believe their own spin. Then when the electorate does what was entirely expected and justified and tosses out corrupt, self-seeking politicians the Left learns nothing, blaming the electorate for being too 'stupid' and not 'progressive'to see the 'light'.

The majority of people are too busy working and taking responsibility themselves for their shelter and keep to engage in the Leftie faux outrage, internet polls and protests. Keep complaining though and the taxpayers will be reminded of the cost of welfare and how some of it is ill-spent.

Pedestrian, my panel is very committed, so they are definitely not representative of the public when it comes to issues like an informal vote. However, it might pick up your disillusioned Labor voter. If it does there's not that many of them. I give respondents the option of voting informal and only 1% took that option.

However, before the leadership change, I had spoken to a few Labor voters who had switched to Liberal for the sole purpose of tearing the party down so it could be rebuilt.

I haven't checked to see where they stand on that issue now that the leadership has changed, but after seeing Rudd's performance on the 7.30 Report tonight I can see despair just around the corner again. Abbott is on tomorrow, so I might change my view when I see him, but hard to think of a worse performance from someone who is allegedly mature enough to run the country.

Graham Young
Re last nights performance, I felt like I was watching south-park, only it was not at all funny.

At the last election I think I was not the only liberal who was so uneasy about Abbott's Liberalism, that I did not put pencil to ballot paper. I asked about informals because I intuit that this time around, labor centrists who are very uneasy about Mr Rudds sanity may be a factor, no?

They could be, I just don't have any data that would support that position, so my speculation is just as good as anyone else's. An interesting experiment would be to look at the informal votes in the last NSW and Queensland elections to see whether they are higher or lower than previous elections, and whether they vary depending on the original security of the Labor or LNP incumbents.

The situation in both states in terms of public despair about Labor is probably similar to what it is federally, so if you could find that a. there was an increase in the informal vote over the average of the previous few elections and b. the informal vote was higher in electorates that have a proportionately larger Labor vote, then I think you have a working hypothesis with some data behind it.

The sooner voters realise that Rudd is a dud, the better.
It was he who got us into this unholy mess in the first place.
Watched him waffling on about what he is going to do on TV this morning, plenty of mouth and just nothing to back it up with.
I do wonder if he retain even his own seat at the election and the longer he leaves it into announcing a date for the election the more he will lose.

I find it passing strange that the timing of the election hasn't received more comment, or factored more into the gurus assessment of Labor's chances.
by September, a lot of low income earners are going to get a nice tax return present, compliments of Julia.
Perhaps not so strange; The Powers That Be have a long history of ignoring, or taking for granted the silent majority.
The "average" wage may be up around $70k, but the median is still closer to $40k; 18k of which is now tax free.
That's 50% of the voting public, who probably don't bother with polls, don't write letters to the editor much less their local MP and would be happier if they didn't even have to vote, much less enter into long arguments about bloody politicians.
They may not show up in the polls, but they still have to show up on polling day.

I suspect that the torrent of words from Mr Rudd over these past few days has been building up for three years, that on that back-bench, he's been rehearsing and honing speeches on every topic under the sun, in preparation for this moment.

On the other hand, if he does get stuck into the NSW Labor 'Party', he has the chance to boost the electoral chances of a dozen sitting members. Certainly, at least three.

So Labor can pick up maybe 66 to the Coalition's 78, and maybe save a Senate seat in NSW. Just so long as the honeymoon lasts and Rudd doesn't make any mistakes.

For all that, that first episode of Wednesday Night Fever had him down pat. Beautiful. And that sheila does Julia better than Julia does. Brilliant.

Joe

If Rudd's only achievement is to clean up NSW Labor he will have been worth while. I'd like to be able to bottle his inexplicable appeal, I could make a fortune selling it to political hopefuls. I'd also like to have a week without polls sometime before the election.