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Are the Climate Commission's claims of a hot summer correct? : Comments
By Anthony Cox, published 12/3/2013How can there be a continent wide summer record when no part of the continent had a record?
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http://depts.washington.edu/amath/research/articles/Tung/journals/Tung_and_Zhou_2013_PNAS.pdf
"In fact, the net anthropogenic warming trend has been remarkably steady for the past 100 y at 0.07–0.08 °C/decade."
That is, 0.8 °C/century.
I.e., Nothing to worry about. All upside, no downside.
Here is another extract from the paper:
"If this conclusion is correct, then the following interpretation follows: The anthropogenic warming started after the mid-19th century of Industrial Revolution. After a slow start, the smoothed version of the warming trend has stayed almost constant since 1910 at 0.07–0.08 °C/decade. Superimposed on the secular trend is a natural multidecadal oscillation of an average period of 70 y with significant amplitude of 0.3–0.4 °C peak to peak, which can explain many historical episodes of warming and cooling and accounts for 40% of the observed warming since the mid-20th century and for 50% of the previously attributed anthropogenic warming trend (55). Be- cause this large multidecadal variability is not random, but likely recurrent based on its past behavior, it has predictive value. Not taking the AMO into account in predictions of future warming under various forcing scenarios may run the risk of over- estimating the warming for the next two to three decades, when the AMO is likely in its down phase."