To reiterate Max, for any 24/7 power demand, be it transportation or more traditional uses of an electrical grid, you need a multiple of supply to account for the capacity factor. For solar, that figure can be below 20%, hence the six to eight times supply multiple. Do you see the problem Max? What I see is that the cost of 24/7 renewables is as much as twice the cost of nuclear for the solar panels and wind turbines alone. So why are you are so enthusiastic about renewables when they would supply 24/7 power at over twice the cost of nuclear power which you dismiss as being too expensive?

Fester,
well - if you've been *thinking* about it I hope your 20 page PDF can be submitted to the ANU's CSIRO team led by Blakers etc.

In the meantime, did you factor in your *thinking* about it that EV's are much more efficient? They get 2 to 3 times more transport per unit energy.
http://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/evs-are-they-really-more-efficient/

Also, in this *particular* Blakers CSIRO model focused just on a 100% electricity grid they make the following interesting comment:

"NEM demand remains stable at 205 TWh per year (including roof-mounted PV). NEM demand has changed little since 2008 [11], with energy efficiency offsetting growth in demand (driven mostly by population growth). Electrification of land transport (which could add 30–35% to electricity demand in the future [12]) is excluded in order to focus on the current electricity system."
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217309568

Not much more electricity.

I'll have to check which studies recommend which amount of over-build - as I quoted the 5-6 times from my last email chat with Mathew Stocks of the Blakers team.

Did you factor in how flexible this can be? Most domestic cars sit in a driveway or at work for 95% of the day. They can be charging that whole time - or in future versions even selling some of that power back to the grid.

Did you factor in energy density in batteries is still increasing and the price decreasing - so that we'll soon have cars that can drive from Sydney to Melbourne in one charge?

That these batteries now have 8 times more power than a home Tesla Powerwall, and will soon have 9 or 10 times more?

Did you factor in that "the grid" will often not be charging these cars at all - but home users will charge them DIRECTLY from solar on their rooftops? Much more efficient than driving fuel around.

One thing we don't want to fall for is huge hydrogen exports. That may just not happen - as Japan can make all their own power from renewables.

http://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/2022/04/04/australia-plans-hydrogen-exporter/

Hi Max,

I appreciate your efforts in answering my questions, but your answers don't make sense to me. The question I ask is what is the minimum capacity factor used for renewable generation? My understanding is that solar generation has an average capacity factor of about twenty-five percent. Minimum capacity is lower, so making nuclear cheaper than the cost of solar generation alone. My interest is more simple than just assuming that Blakers is a smart guy and must be correct.

What depth of water can an EV negotiate compared to an IC vehicle?

We do know that diesel electric locomotives are severely limited in this regard to steam locomotives which can go through much deeper water.

Hi Fester,
It sounds like you might be double counting?

Generally speaking Capacity Factor is a MAJOR part of establishing the LCOE - and without it it's not a true LCOE.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levelized_cost_of_electricity

This next article is from 2 years ago!

"That is - even though solar only works about a quarter of the time (a third of the day - any cloudy days etc) it is STILL vastly cheaper than nukes. The down time has already been included in that calculation. Solar is 4 times cheaper than nukes - and getting cheaper!

Further cost reductions in both large scale solar PV and onshore wind projects mean that these two technologies are now the cheapest form of new build energy generation in areas that count for two thirds of the world’s population, and 85 per cent of the globe’s electricity generation.

The latest benchmark report from research company BloombergNEF show that in just the last six months the levellised cost of electricity (LCOE) for onshore wind has fallen a further nine per cent, its most significant drop in five year.

The cost of utility scale PV, already down 90 per cent over the past decade, has fallen a further 4 per cent. The takes their respective benchmark, or global average costs taking into account the varied wind and solar resources, to an average of $US44/MWh for wind and $US50/MWh for utility scale solar."
http://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-wind-and-battery-storage-now-cheapest-energy-options-just-about-everywhere-95748/

Have a look at the regional studies. (Geography really affects the output!) It's now MUCH cheaper than coal! (Check 2021 data.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#Regional_studies

There is one form of transport that beats EVs hands down except for speed, being limited to 50 kph for short trips.
More fuel efficient, cheaper fuel, low environment impact, fully recyclable and the byproducts of fuel are reusable.