I've already explained a lot of this, but yes I fully grant batteries are up in price (but not 5 times! You must have got ripped off - if what you say is true.)

But the Tesla powerwall is up an extra 50% on last year. That's in one year!

It's easy. It's market driven demand. Demand is too high at the moment for lithium suppliers to keep up.

BUT:
There are new Lithium extraction technologies coming. Lithium sits in cooling ponds for 18 months - but that is about to change in the next year or so. There are pump and filter routines coming that could radically speed up the production of lithium and maybe halve the cost.
http://youtu.be/xWpLFUUDTiM

But basically there are also just too many alternative chemistries being cooked up out there for lithium ion to remain the king. It's going to be dethroned soon enough.

This is the Undecided battery playlist - there are 31 episodes. He's great - one of my favourite future-tech Youtubers.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8FEyaZxqAU&list=PLnTSM-ORSgi51JjqvxlP0JTYSU0-910Ks

Just Have A Think is also FANTASTIC - I really like this guy.
This is his energy storage playlist - and some of these ideas could mean we don't have to build pumped hydro storage systems ever again! But the particular one I'm interested in could take 5 to 10 years to come to market.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbkhXAP1EQE&list=PLaB0XtT-WMEODwZxpgzvNholOp43GD0t2

Until then, I'm just happy that today's OFF-RIVER PHES (Pumped Hydro Electricity Storage) can do the job. Combine this Water storage technology with Wind and Solar, and you get WWS for 100% clean electricity - and as we begin to electrify everything - including transport - it will give Australia some independence from some oil producing countries that don't like us very much!

Seriously - any patriotic Australian concerned about our national security should be DEMANDING 100% WWS.

Hi Max,

I appreciate your efforts in taking time to explain things. Very complicated, using battery storage for transportation, but interesting. You would still have some excess capacity given seasonal variation, and there is also the question of whether all the batteries could be made, how long they would last, and what cost they would be, but if it can make energy cheaper then it might have something to offer. I would still prefer to see such a system demonstrated on a small scale first.

Thanks again for your patience.

Max wrote: "Hooray! You used the right word! You said the RESERVES were increasing,"

The very first time I wrote on this I wrote..."In 1990 the world had 1.0275 trillion barrels of crude oil reserves."

The fact is I used the correct word from beginning to end.
The fact is you initially agreed with my point.
The fact is you only created this imaginary misuse of terms because you were trying to find a way of getting out of the corner you talked yourself into.

The fact is oil reserves have been growing for decades despite growing demand.

The fact is you'd prefer that wasn't true because it invalidates your renewable fantasies.

The fact is there is no reason to think that will end soon.

The fact is oil (and fossil fuels in general) remain and will continue to remain the main source of global power well into this century.

The fact is that by the time declining fossil fuel availability becomes an issue, other sources of power will have long since taken over.

This is the only bit you got right! “The fact is that by the time declining fossil fuel availability becomes an issue, other sources of power will have long since taken over.” Renewables + EV’s will take over in the next 15 to 20 years. DONE!

I’m sick of talking about the difference between RESOURCES and RESERVES. If you want to try to understand it, here’s a team from the University of Calgary. http://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Reserve

But what I still really object to is this outright LIE!
“…the fact remains, as you've already admitted, we are discovering more than we're using.” http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=9984#340823

This is a fantasy, out there will “The Aliens at area 51 will save us!” We are most categorically NOT DISCOVERING more oil than we use. Oil discovery peaked in the 1960’s and again in the 80’s. In a good year discovery might replace a quarter of that year. Mostly, we’re eating into oil our grandparents discovered. This is a fact.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#/media/File:World_crude_discovery_production_U-2200Gb_LaherrereMar2015.jpg

The BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019 already accounts for all today’s reserves growth and on page 15 STILL says we run out in 50 years. At current rates!
http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/business-sites/en/global/corporate/pdfs/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2019-full-report.pdf

Also, your 'solution' of reserves growth is also the problem. Peak oil isn't about when oil runs out - it's when it can no longer meet market demand economically.

You're so busy chanting "Reserves growth FOREVER!" like some Marvel fan shouting "Wakanda FOREVER!" that you've forgotten what that means. You should be shouting “Inflation FOREVER!”
Everyone wants to live the American dream at 900 gallons per capita per year.

EXTRA DEMAND FROM:-

1. DEVELOPING NATIONS: China only uses 138 gallons, India at 51 gallons, and many African nations are under 10! What happens when they want their fair share? They’re industrialising - fast! http://www.worldometers.info/oil/oil-consumption-by-country/

2. BILLIONS MORE! Add 2 billion people by 2050.
If the EV’s and renewables you hate DON’T take over, demand for oil will double and double again.

Depending on the speed of demand growth - BP’s 50 years will HALVE and HALVE again!

WAKANDA FOREVER!

"I’m sick of talking about the difference between RESOURCES and RESERVES."

So stop. After all you're only talking about it and you're only using it as a means of deflecting from your previous errors.

"This is the only bit you got right! "

The only thing? So when I said global reserves were increasing each decade that was wrong? If so why did you agree with the numbers at the time? Indeed why don't you agree with those numbers now? Just to be clear, do you now deny you agreed that those numbers were correct?

The data is right or wrong. It can't magically become wrong just because you realise the data upends your renewable fantasies.

"So when I said global reserves were increasing each decade that was wrong?"

Yes and no. One moment you are discussing reserves - the next moment you mentioned DISCOVERIES (which is about new resource that eventually get categorised into reserves!)

But if you can't be bothered to learn the difference between the two categories then we can't have this discussion because your Dunning-Kruger's keeps getting in the way.

I tried to help you. If you don't want to read a fairly easy piece by Calgary - that's your business but don't complain if I correct your terminology now and then.

OK - now onto your "Reserve Growth FOR-EVER!"
Oooh dear oh dear.
Look what's slowing down!
http://www.statista.com/statistics/236657/global-crude-oil-reserves-since-1990/

Even your famous Reserve Growth - which HAS been remarkable in previous decades - slowed down last decade. Why, it's barely keeping up with replacing the 35.4 BILLION barrels we burn each year. (No wonder - that's over a 1000 bathtubs of oil PER SECOND!) It's maxing out!
"If so why did you agree with the numbers at the time? Indeed why don't you agree with those numbers now? Just to be clear, do you now deny you agreed that those numbers were correct?"

RESERVES Growth is plateauing as I've shown in the graph above.

New DISCOVERY of RESOURCES peaked in the 1960's and 1980's. As I have said - apart from the Reserves Growth we've already discussed at length - we’re eating into oil our grandparents discovered. This is a fact.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil#/media/File:World_crude_discovery_production_U-2200Gb_LaherrereMar2015.jpg

If you can't be be arsed to learn the difference between the two, then that's on you.

WAKANDA FOREVER!