AEMO has warned that we will be paying up to 50% more for power next year, not 'just' the 35% warned by one of the providers; and more than the 30-40% expected to be announced in tonight's budget.

Three days ago, the Treasure was still defending Albanese's $275 off power bills lie, with another 'promise' that prices will be lower by 2025, because unreliables are "cheaper".

The floor prices of hydrocarbons for home, business as well as transport use have been pushed up due the Russia-Ukraine War. This is due to sanction enforced scarcity.

The end of that war (win or lose) should lead to a drop in hydrocarbon prices.

However, a far worse price riser is the eventual war over Taiwan, which could spread to a World War.

I'm talking about Australia, not Europe. The Russia/Ukraine affair has no bearing on Australia, whose problems are caused by Net Zero policies and subsidised wind and solar. It's all inflicted on us by dropkick politicians. We had cheap, reliable coal power, but the dicks are deliberately making it unviable.

Hi ttbn

The price of hydrocarbons in Australia are mainly influenced by the world spot prices for gas, oil, even thermal coal, which are being heavily influenced by Ukraine War induced shortages.

This is because Australia is part of the globalised hydrocarbon energy market.

Basically Australia's local energy companies and its multinational energy companies (eg. Singapore oil refineries where Australia gets its oil) look at the international export markets when they're pricing gas, oil and thermal coal for the Australian market.

Your the expert on renewables.

Cheers Mavs

I don't know where you get your info, Maverick, but I have had mine - that Russia etcetera is a European problem, not ours, - confirmed on the news tonight. Our problems are all down to our own governments, current and the previous one.

Cheers.

Australia's electricity prices have been increasing in real terms since 2008 after several decades of no real increase.

Those increases in prices have only accelerated over the years. They have precisely nothing to do with Putin's war. If you want to work out why prices are increasing, check what happened in 2008 to start the price increase round. If your research doesn't include the word 'Rudd' you've done it wrong.

Pretty much every government since then has tried to reconcile the electorates desire for cheap, reliable, 'green' power, with reality. They've failed. But they keep coming up with ways to kick the reckoning down the road eg Snowy 2.0.

Blaming the increase on 'the war' is just the latest way the governments have tried to deflect the blame from where it actually sits.

Well said mhaze.

Labor's promise to reduce average power prices by $275 p.a. is now looking like just another Labor lie that they never intended to keep.

All politicians lie, but the tag 'Lying Labor' has a nice ring to it, and it could well become a popular descriptor for the party. If it means to go on as it has in its first few months, we ain't seen nothing yet. Wong 'didn't' say that they were going to overturn the Jerusalem affair - then she did. Bugs Bowen is telling lies about EVs and his energy portfolio in general - but the biggest is the one about unreliables being 'cheaper'.

Of course the $275 was nonsense everyone knew it when it was promised.
Renewables can never be cheap. It is the duplication needed to get
100% X 100% electricity that kills it. Depending on the size of the
grid the multiplication varies between 8 an 20 times. That is why small countries like Germany and the UK are in trouble.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgJqk9ZaUAAKnvn?format=jpg&name=medium

Albo has a cunning plan

Mhaze, the 2008 oil price surge was caused by peak crude oil.
The peak crude occurred in December 2005 but really did not have full
effect till 2007 and 2008 when in September it reached US$114.
The upheaval in the financial economy crashed (GFC) caused the oil
companies to resurrect an old technique of fracking.
However even that is now reaching its peak in the US and will have the
usual short life in new countries that try it.
We will have to keep at oil for as long as economic for someone who
can afford it.
Put your money into diesel generator set manufacturers.
A better bet might be steam generators using wood or coal.
The old style steam engines will run forever.

Dear mhaze,

You claim without basis as usual that: "Pretty much every government since then has tried to reconcile the electorates desire for cheap, reliable, 'green' power, with reality. They've failed."

The move to home solar panels and energy smart appliances has reduced the average energy consumption per household be about 20% in the last 15 years. This has been purely as a result of government subsidies.

Leaving aside foreign owned operators of our gas and coal stations rorting the hell out of the energy market it has worked, it continues to work, and will do so into the future.

It looks like we are in for a long high inflation and a period of
very high debt which will restrict the whole infrastructure of our
countries. To add into this regular failures of electrical supply
and its effect on industry could cause a total meltdown of the economy.
It could even get to mimic Lebanon, I do believe it is that serious.

It has been clearly shown that privatising electrical power generation reduces prices and improves reliability.

shadow,
>It has been clearly shown that privatising electrical power generation reduces prices and improves reliability.
That's what was clearly shown in Victoria, yet the exact opposite was clearly shown in SA. So rather than make sweeping statements, isn't it better to look at the circumstances that caused the prices to change?

Aidan,

The opposite was not shown in SA. The closing of the coal generation was the tipping point. It meant that SA was dependent on coal-generated power from Vic.

TTBN demonstrates their complete ignorance of the globalised energy system we live in, and the international trade commitments and contracts we have signed. It's almost too painful to watch - almost. (Winks ha ha!)

Seriously, a DROUGHT of all things in Brazil has increased global gas prices. How? Brazil relies on hydro power, and the lack of water has increased their demand on gas. Australian floods have done something similar - flooding some of our coal mines. Who said climate change can't hurt the economy?

Meanwhile, Europe has finally learned not to rely on Russian gas and is getting more serious about their climate obligations. They're going to massively increase their offshore wind capacity (while also creating and protecting marine parks where there will be no fishing or wind turbines.) Global maps of potential off-river PHES (Pumped Hydro Electric Storage) show that Europe has many orders of magnitude more potential sites for economically storing wind for days when it might be quiet. For bad seasons? Don't store energy - overbuild the renewables to cope! With LCEO of Wind and Solar showing them to be 1/4 the price of nuclear - we can afford to do this!

"Meanwhile, Europe has finally learned not to rely on Russian gas and is getting more serious about their climate obligations."

What, by burning garbage? Lol
They really showed them hey!!

http://www.wired.com/story/in-europe-backlash-heats-up-over-garbage-incinerators/
Whatever it takes to stay warm.

Actually there were mass protests building in Germany demanding Nordstream 2 be opened in the days prior to sabotage of the pipeline.

I think the winner of todays award for complete ignorance goes to Penny Wong.

"Australia stands with Ukraine in condemning Russia’s deadly missile attacks.
Reports these missiles have also struck Polish territory are deeply concerning.
We again call on Russia to withdraw its forces and end its illegal, immoral war."
http://twitter.com/SenatorWong/status/1592634653323980800

Poland blast caused by missile fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian missile - AP
http://www.reuters.com/world/poland-blast-caused-by-missile-fired-by-ukrainian-forces-incoming-russian-2022-11-16/

'Never let the truth get in the way of a good story'

Some of our leaders just may belong on the Muppet Show.

Trade Commitments?

Like Oz Waffe?

http://www.contactairlandandsea.com/2022/08/04/rheinmetall-nioa-munitions-queensland-factory-starts-producing/

http://www.rheinmetall-defence.com/en/rheinmetall_defence/company/divisions_and_subsidiaries/rheinmetall_waffe_munition/index.php

Fancy Australians in partnership with Germans to make weapons for export...
Truth is definitely stranger than fiction I tell you.

90 million dollar plant, gets 36million dollars in funding from the Federal and Queensland Governments,
- What a bargain, no wonder they came here to build their factory.

Will eventually hire UP TO [drumroll] 100 workers.

“Maryborough will become the number one regional manufacturing hub”

Wow! NATO standard 155mm.

But don't worry, Penny and Albo have gone hat in hand to the Chinese to beg for our exports back.

What about these trade commitments

Australian gas 40% cheaper in Japan than in Australia despite export costs
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/aug/16/australian-gas-40-cheaper-japan-than-australia-despite-export-costs

"Australian gas is being shipped and sold to wholesale customers in Japan for 40% less than it is sold to Australian customers, despite the extra costs of liquefying and shipping the gas there.

The commitment to exporting Australian gas has left fewer companies selling gas to the Australian market, meaning both retail and wholesale gas prices have risen sharply, pushing up local electricity prices up too."

That was based on 2016 prices, wonder how much of a bargain they're getting now since the price has increased by 4 to 10 times in the last year...

It feels so good to be winning...

DIESEL COSTS RISING DUE TO UKRAINE WAR

Not that long ago, the old van was the most economical vehicle in the family fleet of two (three if you include the motorcycle but that doesn't carry surfboards, groceries and the dog). You'd fill it for less than $100. A full tank might cost a little more but would provide many more kilometres than the petrol-powered car. Now, a full tank of diesel costs an eye-watering amount - almost $200 - so the van rarely goes out. How the tables have turned.

In 2019, when Scott Morrison accused Labor of wanting to end the weekend with its more ambitious electric vehicle policy, he had no idea the biggest threat to the diesel ute would end up being Vladimir Putin.

His invasion of UKRAINE has put a premium on diesel as demand has soared - not just for vehicles but for power generation as well. And because we import some refined petroleum products including diesel from India, which hasn't signed up to sanctions against Russia and buys its crude from there, our utes might be indirectly bankrolling Moscow's war. We'd never know.

In recent years, Australia has lost half of its oil refining capacity. Local refineries have closed, we're told by the oil majors, because they simply can't compete with the giant Asian facilities. With just two refineries remaining operational in Australia, warnings were sounded just last year about this dependence on imported fuel, especially if there were disruptions to supply chains.

Those disruptions have arrived in the form of demand spikes, driven by the UKRAINE war. Even as the price of crude and regular petrol comes off the boil, diesel remains costly, adding to the price of everyday products which require transport, in turn fuelling inflation.

Hi Maverick,
this is what you're looking for.

https://electricvehiclecouncil.com.au/cost-calculator/

Then add some solar to your roof (or buy into a Solar Garden co-op) and it's like having your own oil refinery!

Thanks Max

As I'm just a few years into a CX-5

and where I live has no public electricity charge stations for about 200 km

and my little single story roof is wedged between 2 x 2 story "sun blocker" houses on either side

paying the odd $60,000 (minimum?) for an EV is not a good investment this side of 2027

and that's After I've moved to a house that can take solar cells.

Cheers Mavs

P.S. Max

More like a very efficient Hybrid in 2027 for me

more flexible for rural living.

eg. a Toyota Corolla Cross.

Cheers Mavs

Hi Maverick,
I hear you on having just bought a car. I'm not saying everyone's got to switch straight away - but I do imagine Australia ending up with an end of life for oil cars date like other countries. Eventually. We're still getting over the legacy of the Denier government we just sacked - otherwise we might already have an oil exit date beyond which new Internal Combustion Engines cannot be bought in Australia.

But don't give up on your own solar! Apparently renters or others without roof space can buy into a 'solar garden'. It’s out somewhere with cheap real estate. Your panels sit there pumping solar energy into the grid, and they measure the amount and deduct it from your bill. It transfers with you if you move. I haven't read through all the legal details and what admin fees there are, but basically:-
”1. Become a member of Haystacks Solar Garden Co-operative.
2. Apply for a solar garden plot and transfer the plot fee
3. Switch your electricity retailer to the participating retailer – Energy Locals
4. Once the solar panels are generating electricity, receive credit on your electricity bill.”
http://haystacks.solargarden.org.au/

Thanks Max

Cheers Mavs