The last few months have seen a dramatic change in the war. With the delivery of nearly 200 super accurate Nato style howitzers, 20 odd HIMARS systems and US HARM missiles the heavy losses of the Russian forces as they attack heavily fortified positions for tiny gains and the destruction of their armour, their air defences and their logistic systems have essentially bled the Russian army strength away.

All this time the Ukrainians have been building their forces to the point where they can deliver massive attacks on two fronts. In Kherson, the 35000 Russians have been trapped between the river and their enemy, with little to no chance of resupply or reinforcement and are being constantly battered with artillery, drones and tanks while low on ammunition and food they are unable to mount a sufficient defence.

Meanwhile, in Kharkiv, the huge force that was built up in secret has torn through the Russian lines like wolves through a hen house gaining about 6000 sq km and capturing vast numbers of vehicles, artillery and ammunition.

The Russians are now facing the possibility that Russia is going to lose this war and with it the illegally occupied Donbas and Crimea.

What the Ukrainians have done to date is impressive. Equally the mess the Russian leadership have made of what should have been an easy win is spectacular.

By constantly talking about how they were going to attack the Russian invaders in the south of the country, the Ukrainians convinced the Russians to relocate their troop and equipment strength to that part of the conflict. Then the Ukrainians delivered the sucker punch by attacking in the north-east and overwhelming the now depleted Russian forces. That the Russians fell for this shows just how hopeless their leadership has become.

If nothing else comes out of the conflict, the abiding lesson is that Russia is no longer a threat to NATO or any NAATO country.

There have been stories that some senior Russian politicians are calling for Putin to resign and that some of these have been arrested. But remember that Putin still has some cards to play. Only a portion of his forces have been unleashed thus far although it is unclear as to the quality of those in reserve and how well they are equipped.

But the biggest worry are the Russian nukes. If the current leadership is cornered and see no way out, they may decide to escalate the conflict by using tactical nukes against their foe.

The war still has a way to go.

Dear Shadow Minister,

We must thank God for this good news.

Alternatively, their fellow Communists, the PRC, might step in and lend the Russians a hand to produce an altogether different end.

So sad for the Ukrainians, but the RF has suffered heavy losses and been shown up as incompetent criminals. It is great that the Ukrainian army now has the capacity to deal with RF artillery. Would anyone like to take a stab at how much longer the RF can last in Ukraine? AC? Mox? I believe the Russians are desperate to call a ceasefire, but I doubt they will get much peace.

Hi there SHADOWMINISTER...Thank you for a great topic.

What concerns me most - The massive Russian military in toto, being under the precarious and volatile aegis of Mr PUTIN; Is he the sort of bloke that if he can see he's losing the war; but worse, losing 'face' as a consequence of that loss. Do you believe he's sufficiently disturbed to employ nuclear weapons in the Ukraine, if for no other reason but to strengthen & fortify his image of being a tough leader?

In my humble opinion, I believe Mr PUTIN to be the most dangerous man in Europe today, due ostensibly to his capricious and mercurial behaviour.

I totally agree with O Sung Wu.

He is unpredictable and dangerous and he may well be
tempted to go nuclear. Let's hope not.

The man has for more than two decades has enjoyed a
reputation in Russia as being a winner. That changed
24 February 2022. The last six months has shown his
decision to invade Ukraine was a major miscalculation.
He's been unable to secure a quick victory.

Instead Russia has got bogged down in a long, bloody,
offensive and has suffered a series of embarrassing
defeats. What is concerning is that the man does not
admit his making mistakes.

What happens next? We can only hope and pray that
the Russian people will themselves take care of this
authoritarian leader now that his invincibility is
fading. When we look at Russian history - it hasn't
ended well for Russian leaders who fought wars
and didn't win them.

Sorry - I forgot to mention the "he" I'm
referring to is of course Putin.

Here's a link that's relevant:

http://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/vladimir-putin-war-russia-ukraine

If you want unbiased and detailed analysis of the war, go here....
http://www.understandingwar.org/

It carries daily (mostly) updates.

Putin is in a corner.

The war has gone really badly for him. His army has lost nearly 50 000 dead and 100 000 wounded. He has conscripted nearly every male in the previously captured area and is now scouring the prisons for those desperate enough to join his army.

His armoured vehicles and artillery are being destroyed or captured at a rate that he cannot replace, all the while facing a reinvigorated partisan action in the areas it has occupied.

General mobilization could help, but the new conscripts won't be ready for 6-12 months and there is little to no heavy equipment for them to use other than antiques.

Putin and Xi are currently meeting in Uzbekistan. Ukraine might get a mention. The fat lady won't be singing for a while yet, and only fools are writing off Russia.

It is reported that Russian troops are fleeing in panic in the Kharkiv rout. Ukraine, it is said, has obtained more abandoned equipment from the Russians than all the equipment supplied by the west in the past 6 months. Ukrainian troops are of course very familiar with Russian equipment and so are able to, and have been, simply taking over the abandoned equipment and pointing it in the other direction.

Russia can ill-afford to lose this hardware. Already they have withdrawn equipment from Syria and have been reduced to buying munitions from North Korea!!

Whatever happens in Ukraine, it is clear that the days of Russia as a global power or even a dominant regional power are over. Some of the regions that have relied on Russian support are now up for grabs. Belorussian leadership, for example, which relied on Russian support is now at the mercy of external forces. One would expect Lukashenko's days are numbered. Look also to Transnistria, the nominally independent portion of Moldova to be quickly dissolved now that it is clear Russia is unable to support or defend it.

On a wider scale, Syria's Assad grew increasingly reliant on Russian arms. That is now over. Expect Israel to take full advantage of that fact.

In the longer term, it is now apparent that NATO is no longer needed. The next Republican leader is likely to begin the process of pulling the US out of Europe.

Russia is now a client state of the Chinese Empire. This sort of, kinda, strengthens China but gives it a series of problems that it may come to rue.

Mhaze,

I agree with most of what you said except that I don't see the US pulling out of Europe with the great success of the Ukraine campaign.

It must be humiliating for Putin having to go cap in hand to China.

From the ABC:

"Russian forces likely left behind dozens of tanks, armoured personnel carriers and other heavy weaponry as they fled Ukraine's advance in the east of the country, a Ukrainian think tank said Wednesday.

The Center for Defense Strategies said one single Russian unit that was around Izium left behind 39 T-80 tanks and 35 infantry fighting vehicles.

Another unit left behind 47 tanks and 27 armoured vehicles.

The think tank said Russian forces tried to destroy some of the abandoned vehicles through artillery strikes as they fell back.

Typically, armed forces destroy equipment left behind so their opponent cannot use it.

However, the chaos of the Russian withdrawal apparently saw them leave untouched ammunition and weapons behind."

I am amazed at how the left is so accepting of all the war crimes being committed by the Russian army in Ukraine. e.g.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3572525-new-mass-grave-discovered-in-izium-zelensky.html

I wonder what Jules thinks of all the crimes being committed by his Russian chums? I think that he should be pardoned if he serves six months on the front line for the RF. He could be part of a tank crew and will hopefully get blown up by a Javelin with a full compliment of incendiary shells on board.

Yes, Julian Assange and the left seem to be willfully ignorant of the crimes that Russia is committing in Ukraine.

https://socialistworker.co.uk/comment/ukraine-war-entering-a-deadly-new-phase/

Unlike Vietnam, the war crimes in Ukraine are endorsed from the top, making Russia the equivalent of Nazi Germany. KIA wise, Russia looks like exceeding the US inside a year, making Ukraine a Vietnam on steroids.

What's also hurting Russia is that the oil price is dropping as is now even lower than before the invasion and still heading south. Russia is now running a heavy deficit to pay for the war and to keep the unemployed (on furlough) from starving.

Russia confiscated all leased aircraft, and as such will never be able to buy or lease western aircraft again until this is all paid off. Also the oil refineries, gas plants etc owned by Russia in the EU are being confiscated and the $Trillions of assets purchased by oligarchs are also being taken. Putin and his cronies are now a whole lot poorer.

Even China who a few months ago pledged friendship without limits won't risk western sanctions to lift a finger.