It was a major surprise on, 16 September 2021, that Morrison, Boris Johnson and Biden announced the vision of future nuclear propelled submarine (Aus SSN) for Australia http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AUKUS#Submarines .

Is Election history repeating itself?

First, in April 2016, the Australian Federal Government prematurely, but before the July 2016 Federal Election, chose Naval Group/DCNS to build the Attack class conventionally propelled subs. This was, in part, to gain votes/seats in South Australia (where Australia was to build the subs). But this premature Aus Gov announcement and action led to an unmanageable situation with Naval Group.

Second. Now in 2021, prior to the Federal Election probably in 2022(?), Morrison has announced a very un-nailed down "vision" to build nuclear propelled subs, again in South Australia. Everything is up for consultation with, not one, but two countries, the UK and US.

To be cynical is fully justified that escaping the Naval Group unmanageable situation may lead to something worse. But rest assured votes and seats in South Australia (where these nuclear subs are meant to be built) are (almost) assured for Morrison's Government (which is behind in the polls).

An Australian nuclear submarine (Aus SSN) may become an even more unmanageable situation.

UNCERTAIN VISIONS/OPTIONS

This side of the 2022? Federal Election Morrison merely says Australia will build the SSNs, in Adelaide, South Australia.

It is possible the Aus SSNs will have traits of the UK's Astute class SSN and US Virginia class SSN.

A. If the Aus SSN is tailor-made for the RAN this will be very economically and technically risky, extremely expensive and may only produce a mature SSN by the late 2030s, if not later.

B. If Australia, instead, buys UK made Astutes or US made Virginias one of these SSNs may be delivered to Australia by the late 2020s.

OR

3. An Australian made Astute or Virginia may be ready by the early 2030s.

Note that future Aus SSNs (maybe ready in the 2040s) will make Australia the only nuclear sub nation in the world that does not have nuclear weapons.

plantagenet

Do you have an opinion of your own?
Your opening piece repeating a few news reports, is hardly riddled with opine.

Dan.

Sounds good, but ...

Since WW11, both sides of politics have failed totally in their very first duty, sufficient provision for the defence of Australia. They have ensured that our armed forces are neither large enough, lethal enough nor sustainable enough to defend the country. We rely on America but, as Senator and Major General Jim Molan points out, since the end of the Cold War, US capability has decreased by 30 to 50 per cent, whereas China is "fabulously well armed". And of course, we have only about 30 days of fuel in the country.

Molan recently told David Flint that we could defend ourselves; we (that is the politicians) just elect not to do so.

I'll believe it when I see it. It could be just another make work scheme; and we didn’t make much of a job of the Collins. Australian governments have lost the trust of the people.

Just watched Greg Sheridan reminding us about the number of 'perhaps' sub acquisitions we have heard in the past. Also, the fact that if we do actually get something this time, it won't make any difference to the China situation for at least 20 years. All this crap about a heroic decision by Morrison on dropping the French deal? Rubbish! It should have happened well before this, as everyone man and his dog, not paid as much as Morrison, has always known.

Left wing lunatic, Jacinda Adern, has rushed to say that nuclear submarines will not be visiting NZ. I hope this means that she won't he expecting Australia to render help if her silly little asylum is threatened. They are out of ANZUS because of US nuclear ships. They cannot protect themselves. NZ should be ignored for the shithole it has become.

Why do we want noisy underwater steam ships?
Have nuclear subs improved so much that talented asdic operators cannot now tell individual subs from their noise signatures?

Seems like a desperate election ploy or the small kid wanting to play with the big boys.

It is scandalous that our political class has only just been dragged into the world of modern weaponry. The US Navy had its first nuclear submarine in 1955. Since then, the USN has completed more than 5400 accident-free reactor years in multiple vessels travelling more than 130 million miles.

For decades obsolete nuclear-powered Russian submarines have been leased to provide electricity for such diverse uses as powering remote communities and providing similar services to oil exploration companies.

Domestic nuclear power should come next, and soon.

The economic gurus! Not content with wasting billions on 'Jobkeeper' etc, the Morrison government is happy to throw away $5+ billion plus on some French submarine folly. To cap it off, now there is some ridiculous deal to make the Yanks and Poms $90+ billion plus richer, by Australia going nuclear with their subs. When it comes to warmongering you can't beat the conservatives for wasting money, the sky's the limit, or should I say the bottom of the ocean!

ttbn,
Those nuclear subs that the US have used to be routinely knocked out on exercises with our out of date conventional subs.
One of our outdated subs once penetrated the screen around the “USS ENTERPRISE’, surfaced alongside her and signalled “You’re sunk”.
On another occasion one of our subs penetrated a major Chinese port, remained there unsuspected for some time and gathered valuable intelligence.

Our out of date subs were QUIET,

Defence Minister Dutton's talks in America have revealed that, along with AUKUS, America will be establishing an "enduring military presence" on Australian soil.

More US troops and aircraft, including bombers, will be deployed here.
The US will "stand with Australia against China".

I agree with our Prime Minister. It is in our interests
to go with this deal and go nuclear. The conversation
about nuclear subs has been going on for some time.
Yes we do have a fleet of subs known as Collins Class, but
they're getting old. We've been seeking to upgrade them
and replace them for some time now. We were in a deal with
a French ship builder for 12 new subs but the program
came up with delays and blow outs and it would have
delivered conventional subs like the Collins Class.

Our PM has said it's in our interests to go with this new deal
and go nuclear. The French deal was worth $90 billion.
Apparently we've already spent 24 billion. It's unclear how
much Australia will have to pay to scuttle the deal with
France.

All this is a big deal in more ways than one. We don't have
much domestic nuclear capability and the US and the UK
are willing to work over the next months to determine
how the plan will be delivered and how the subs will be
fuelled.

Also the disposal of waste and the disposal of the subs
at the end of their lives are all issues that will have to
be engaged with.

However, I don't think that Australia has much of a choice
in this. If two super powers like the US and the UK are
willing to help Australia build 8 underwater vessels as
part of an alliance to combat China's naval dominance
in the South China Sea - we need to take advantage of the
offer. It's in all our interests to do so.

Not to do so could come at an even heavier price.

Meanwhile there are homeless people on our streets and charities have to contest for the spare dollars.
The 24 billion down the drain of French subs would have done a lot for cancer research for instance.

Two of the basic requirements for a submarine are first that it be submersible and second that it be quiet, if these two criteria are not met then all other attributes are useless.

"Meanwhile there are homeless people on our streets and charities have to contest for the spare dollars."

And, if we don’t stand up to China there will be fewer homeless people that the CCP will deal with using "Chinese characteristics".

There will always be homeless people. Not defending ourselves would not change that.

Issy! I've always had my suspicions about you, that's why i like you.

You, you, you, COMMUNISTS! What's more important, a bunch of homeless losers or Captain Scotty arse licking the Yanks, and defending truth, justice and the American way, and paying their bills at the same time? Boy, the next thing you'll be telling us you like dim sum and spring rolls.

Captain Scotty has just released his theme song for the occasion.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2uTFF_3MaA&ab_channel=TheBeatlesVEVO

BTW we will need those subs soon, like next week, the Frogs are livid and war is imminent, they called us a bunch of meat pies or something. Scotty gave the Frogs the traditional two finger salute and $10 billion to shut em' up, but they're not happy campers. BBTW, how do you say "I surrender" in French?

Umm, how does China treat its most vulnerable people with basic rights and welfare?

I think Australia has good reasons to support the US against the CCP.

Lots of comment but not one on this point;
A diesel submarine based in Perth, would have to have a lot of fuel on
board to get to the North of Indonesia perform a task or two and then
get back to base, perhaps Darwin to refuel.
If the fuel in Darwin was bombed, then back to Perth if it had enough fuel.
I can see its a nightmare to manage that sort of thing.
Anyone have real knowledge on that subject ?
Obviously only food is the limiting factor on a nuclear submarine.

I heard on news that a nuclear fuelled sub would last a lifetime in terms of energy, I am not sure if that is right.

Yes, I heard that. Fuel lasts until the boat is scrapped.

So does the noise when it’s running.

No one got a comment on the noise factor?

As far as fuelling of conventional subs, the Germans refuelled in mid Atlantic from surface mother ships, today refuelling could be done from large submarine tank subs and with far less danger than is experienced by those engaged in aerial refuelling.

Hi ttbn and diver

Even Australian goverments cannot predict and react to sometiomes far off future possibilities that may amount to nothing.

Even your luminary ex-Generaal Molan may be living down suspicions that he worked for the Americans ("wasting" Iraqi civilians) for too long.

When the $300 Billion cost of Aus future nuclear subs becomes public even you might have problems paying the extra tax for the necessary doubling of Australia's Defence Budget.
_________________

However you're right that building nuclear subs in Adelaide will double their cost - taking 20 years until the first is delivered to the RAN. Instead of a much cheaper US or UK build in half the time.

Between 2025 and 2040 Australia will continue to be stuck with aging, defective Collins subs - giving CHINA extra time to get at us.
__________________

The "USN has completed more than 5400 accident-free reactor years" because they have higher safety standards (with more damage control crew in their subs) than Australia will ever have.

This is especially considering the only place on Australia's East Coast that can forward base our future nuclear subs is SYDNEY HARBOUR.

Hi Is Mise

Times change. The need to run Diesel engines every 2 days in conventional subs like ours is 4 times as loud as reactors - contacts admit.

The Chinese increasingly have seafloor acoustic sensors that are fairly defened by the sound of our Collins subs running their diesel engines.
___________

But very true "Seems like a desperate election ploy or the small kid wanting to play with the big boys."

Scottie's timing is curious. Only a few months or less to the next Election. South Australia is happy to receive 3 times more to build nuclear subs than conventional (diesel) subs.

Still, the CHINA THREAT is rapidly rising and uber expensive large diesel subs increasingly didn't make sense.
__________________

"USS ENTERPRISE"

Subs of any type can penetrate carrier groups 10% of the time but may get sunk 90% of the time.

If Chin’a ever decides to attack Australia it will be by conventional means, they would not want to harm their current investments by using nuclear weapons.

What good are submarines, whatever their power source against a conventional attack; especially if that attack comes by air?

It's good that at least some nuclear action is being taken in response to the Chinese threat. It opens up a number of opportunities whatever implementation they choose.

Paul 05

Or should I say Manuel? Despite your Fawlty Towers heritage I shall soothsay to you that:

Money wasted on the failed Attack class project is a mere pittance of $2.4 Billion (so far). That's nothing for Defence - just TAX-PAYERS hard earned money!

Oh yes, and, there will be Breach of Contract Penalties of $500 millions going to the French.

But its like a Fart in a Fan Factory for the Federal Fudge-it.
_______________________

And your "$90+ billion" for the failed submarine deal has blown out to $300 Billion for the nuke sub deal.
___________________________

"Issy! I've always had my suspicions about you"

Well said, me to. But Issy is related to Royalty. We should recognise our betters.
__________________

The Frogs EAT Frogs and horsemeat.

And who lost the Napoleonic Wars anyway!?

The greatest Chinese threat that Australia faces is short zippered flys in men’s trousers; that to me is more of a worry than any ‘threat’, it’s actual.

First of all there is no new submarine contract whatsoever.

It is simply an agreement for the USA and the UK to share in information and the provision of nuclear propulsion technology. Any new submarines themselves are yet to be designed, contracted and built and nothing is expected to be delivered until up to 2040 and instead of 12 of the French ones we will get only 8 nuclear ones and at greater cost.

Meanwhile China will have completely modernised it's military by 2027 and a lot can happen in the next 20 years.

This announcement is little more than political theatre with two countries getting to announce big financial contracts and Australia moving the current political narrative away from it's problems with more sabre-rattling while paving the way for a bigger US military presence on our shores.

However I doubt that it will hold voters' attention beyond a couple of weeks or so before reality returns and maybe a bit more economic retaliation from China.

I forgot to add that nuclear fuel does not last "until the sub is scrapped". It has to be periodically replaced and the matter of secure waste storage is yet to be discussed.

Before the diesel/battery era, the original submarines were coal powered. I'm surprised we haven't gone back down that road.

Is Mise- I'm not sure about the Chinese short fly situation.

I was reading about the issues and weight of the British SA-80 and was considering that we have been doing somewhat better with the Steyr despite a few IUD's. Presumably credit to Australian procurement systems.

I found your comments on the Collin's Class interesting and expected that they would stay around for a while.

I am surprised, not one of our fairy right posters has reacted to the grievous insult from those Frogs! This cannot be tolerated, Australian honour is at steak, this is not chicken feed. I suggest our fearless leader Captain Scotty, throw down the gauntlet, and at the same time slap the fact of Frog insulter President Meatybong. Then we shall board our new nuk flag submarine, S.S. Potato Head under the command of Captain Scotty and sail across land and sea to Froggy where we will capture their Eyefull Tower and storm the Bassteel. There we shall take President Meatybong prisoner and demand a ransom of 90 billion bucks in good old Aussie jumbuck, none of that Froggy Frank rubbish! If the Frogs don't pay up, we shall take their Eyefull Tower and other good stuff on board our flag sub and sail back to Aussie where we will put our prizes on display ay Lunar Park in Sydney! That will teach the Frogs to mess with Aussie!

Issy, the fly problem is mostly with gear from Bangladesh, their tracky-daks have no fly. I think a pre-emptive nuclear strike against the Bangoes capital Ulaanbaatar is warranted for such an insult to Australia! What do you think? If the Chows keep giving us lip we can sail one of our new nuclear powered gun boats up the Yahtzee River and the thrust of cold steel from Captain Scotty will teach those red devils a lesson.

Australia is going completely nuclear, I bought a new nuclear powered toaster from K-mart yesterday, I plan to go complete nuk at my house very soon. Do you know anywhere I can buy cheap plutonium? BTW spent plutonium, does it go in the red bin with the other garbage, or in the yellow bin for recycling on council bin night?

One of the sillier posts on this thread, apart from Paul's pathetic attempt at humour, was the refrain about the cost of this deal when there are homeless people. It is extremely naive to think that money NOT spent on defence would be spent on homeless people or any other charity. Life is not like that.

The best and smartest thing to happen within the Coalition - the only good thing really - has been announced, yet the negative ranters and idiots still rush in to demonstrate what we already know - that they are stupid.

Another positive from the Coalition.

Communist China has formally (and gobsmackingly given its inability to abide by agreements) applied to join with Australia and 10 others the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact. Acceptance must be unaminous.

Australia has blocked the Communists! Hip, hip .....

Communist China has the same lack of integrity and lack of self-awareness as toddlers in their "terrible twos"; and they must be dealt with the same way toddlers are dealt with.

ttbn,
I agree the Coalition are stupid, yet I’m surprised that you think so.

I do not think that the money would be spent on research etc., but I think that it should be.
————

The quietest nuclear sub would use the technology of the diesel electric ones, batteries and electric motors for underwater propulsion and shut down the steam engine when submerged in sensitive areas.

The first submarines were man powered, sweat and guts turned the propellor.
The only steam powered subs ever previously built, the British ‘K’ boats, used oil fired boilers.
The ‘K’s were not a success.

NUCLEAR SUB AGREEMENT is WEDGING and WEAKENING THE ALP, PRE-ELECTION

While Australia's improved strategic response to China from AUKUS, and the nuke sub portion of it, are the chief virtues:

Australia to build and use nuke subs is already Wedging the Labor Party.

Specifically Albanese, of the traditionally anti-nuclear Labor Left, has been compromised by agreeing to Morrison's major nuke sub initiative.

Meanwhile the more pro-jobs centre/right, Shorten and Joel Fitzgibbon who have already been destabilising Albanese, may well show greater enthusiasm for nuke subs.

The nuke subs mean more money and jobs for Unions and Aus industry.

All this compromising and wedging will divide Labor, weaken its credibility and lose Leftwing voter support going into the next Federal Election by May 2022.

Steam powered subs, now there is an idea that would be seized upon
by Malcolm Turnbull. Why didn't someone suggest that to him ?
That the Brits tried it does not surprise me.
Did it have a funnel poking up through the water ? Have a feeling I
saw a black & white picture of one once.

Now on a positive note
The Nuclear sub deal was inevitable. A possible way to calm things
down all round and get submarines earlier would be to award contracts
to the US and UK companies for two each submarines and to build the
remaining four in Adelaide to which design looks the best.
Then to alleviate France's disappointment award contracts for two
nuclear power stations.
By the time that all comes to fruition the power stations will be a
dire necessity.

If the Greens have their way all of our energy requirements will be nuclear derived, so Paul may be right.

Hi Foxy

In support of your points the Collins class are old in years/immersion cycles, and old in technology,

hence have overly noisy hulls.
_________________

In the 2020s upgrades, the Collins' inefficient, reduced performance, low selling Swedish Hedemora diesels will not likely be replaced with far better German MTU diesels.

The Collins Hedemora diesels are so maintenance intensive that they need to be removed from Collins subs every few years.

This involves major cutting of the Collins' pressure hulls, which weakens those hulls, which reduces the Collins maximum diving depths, making the Collins obsolete, already.
___________________

In short, from 2020-2040 (when our nuke subs appear) the Collins may be a match for Indonesia but not against China.
_______________________

No, we've haven't spent "24 billion" on the Attack class, only a pittance, around 3 Billion, of taxpayers money.

"It's unclear how much Australia will have to pay to scuttle the deal with France." Maybe around 500 million.

LETS NOT FORGET - breach/termination of contract penalties to LOCKHEED MARTIN

who are handling the COMBAT SYSTEM third or quarter of the Attack class contracts.
_______________________

Yes, it usually costs more in "disposal of waste and the disposal [DECOMMISSIONING] of [NUCLEAR] subs at the end of their lives"

than actually building them.

Bazz,
Just Google ‘steam submarines’ for a good laugh; they indeed had funnels, two and they folded down, sometimes the sea would break over the funnels and put the fires out.

As a saga of stupidity the’K’ class subs take some beating.

desperate election ploy or the small kid wanting to play with the big boys
is Mise,
It's called being realistic in the approach to a realistic scenario !
Nothing to do with conspiracy crowd electioneering !

Meanwhile there are homeless people on our streets and charities have to contest for the spare dollars
is Mise,
How about backing my calls to reduce undeserving senior Bureaucrats' salaries to fund Welfare & tax the high profit businesses ?
Back the call for Flat Tax or Transaction Tax for that matter. That would buy us new submarines AND help the poor !
Homelessness could also be eliminated by a National Service !

If you are worried about homelessness Individual, you had best start lobbying for a stop of refugees coming in taking all the public housing.

Totally irrelevant to the subject, but I have to say that all this fuss about the homeless and poor is as futile as "reconciliation" and tossing money at aborigines. A waste of money. Millions, maybe even billions, have been spent on these people, and it hasn't made a bit of difference. With very few exceptions, poverty is self-inflicted. Give them money, and they will blow in no time flat, and still be poor. They are people who would have been in the 'poorhouse' in previous centuries - fed, clothed and sheltered because of complete inability to look after themselves. The other thing that needs to be taken into account is the totally unrealistic definitions of 'poverty' put about these days.

I think you'll find that submarines are in fact still steam powered including the nuclear ones. The heat from the reactor creates steam to drive turbines for propulsion as well as to generate electricity for systems and oxygen creation. That's also nuclear and coal power stations work - by making steam, while hydro ones use falling water to turn the turbines

Also, despite the hype, nuclear subs tend to be noisier than conventional ones because the reactor cannot be shut down in order to create total silence.

It turns out that the French also make nuclear subs and there was even an option to convert the ones we ordered to nuclear, but that wasn't part of the current political strategy and posturing that was the basis of this entire event.

rache,
My gut feeling tells me that the cancellation of the French subs has nothing whatsoever to do with technology !
When one looks at France now what do you see ?

Glad to see the Poms are on board with this sub stuff, after all they did build the worlds biggest steam powered submarine the RMS Titanic. Its been underwater since 1912, now that's Pommy technology. Several Asian countries have expressed concerns about Australia going nuclear, given our belligerent track record in the region. I can understand why.

Indy, if we cut out that wasteful aged welfare we could save $25 billon/year. Get a new nuk sub every year, and a couple of battle ships as well.

I could never fathom why even Turnbull got us involved with France, a stale Old World country and one of the first to fall to multiculturalism and Islamic terror. France means nothing to us. The withdrawal of their ambassador is a childish hissy fit. We share no history, apart from a couple of names of explorers who got lost in the 18th. Century, and their language is an effeminate gabble. They are down at number 17 on trade.

We will survive

Paul, and several Asian countries expressed support.

ttbn,
We owe France for much of our language words, cooked sheep meat, mutton, being but one of the many.

The very successful HMAS “SUCCESS” was a French design built at Cockatoo Island Dockyard and was in commission for 33 years.

Add to the above, some 30% of our words come directly from the French.

Ever used RSVP?

Short for “Repondez s’il vous plait”

and this response .

cut out that wasteful aged welfare
Paul1405,
That shows how little regard you have for your indigenous "brothers' !

ttbn,
Do you live in an avenue, parade or cul de sac?

All of French derivation.

Notable Frenchman who aided all of us and is thus part of our history and culture, Louis Pasteur.

Your milk is pasteurised before it is allowed to be sold.

When you have dinner, think of the French, it’s originally their word.

Bon appertite.

Perhaps the current situation with the French
could have been better handled if more notice
had been given. However none of us as privy to
how it all went down. Nevertheless, our Prime
Minister is looking after our interests first
and foremost and that is a good thing. He is
looking to the future and deserves our support.
It's also sending a clear message to China -
that Australia is not the push over they thought
we were.

Foxy,
Paul is the resident humorist.

ttbn,
I forgot Louis Braille, he is part of our history and culture as well, think what it would be like to be part or totally blind without his system.

Now there’s another French word, from.’systeme’

Ah! Issy, reminds me of the Jolly Roger, warms the salty veins in me.

The good old 'HMS Success' I remember it well, sailed around for 33 years without as much as a leak in a bilge pump, until one day it hit some rocks and sank. They renamed it 'HMS Failure'. Oh! the good old barnacle days, when men were men, and the cabin boy had to watch his backside on a long voyage! BTW, where is our resident Admiral Bilgewater? He sailed with Captain Ahab in pursuit of Moby Dick don't you know, across the Roaring 40's, and down around The Horn, gales with 50 footers crashed upon his deck, never slowed Admiral Bilgewater!

A selection from one of my favourites

The ship was cheered, the harbour cleared,
Merrily did we drop
Below the kirk, below the hill,
Below the lighthouse top.

The Sun came up upon the left,
Out of the sea came he!
And he shone bright, and on the right
Went down into the sea.

The Sun now rose upon the right:
Out of the sea came he,
Still hid in mist, and on the left
Went down into the sea.

The fair breeze blew, the white foam flew,
The furrow followed free;
We were the first that ever burst
Into that silent sea.

Water, water, every where,
And all the boards did shrink;
Water, water, every where,
Nor any drop to drink.

There is an historical French connection with the grave of the first known Frenchman to be buried in Australia, Friar Receveur, at La Perouse.
Then there are the thousands of Australian soldiers buried in France, now there’s some shared history.

I'm sure that this latest display by the French
will pass and they will get over it. Just as
Australia did with the French nuclear testing
in the Pacific.

Hi Issy,

Seen that grave at Lapa many times. Got an invite from the French Consulate General Sydney one year, July 14th, out to Lapa representing a Greens MP. A service at the French memorial, then into the big marquee for a real French nosh-up. Everything French champagne, wines, beers etc, and all kinds of yum yum.

Paul,
Been to one myself, with Alliance Francaise de Sydney, as you say, a real nosh up to finish off; you can’t beat French cuisine (another French word in the local language).

What strikes me about this deal is the time frame, most are saying about 20 years for the delivery of the first sub. So I'm sitting here wondering that given the current staggering rate of improvements in robotics and AI autonomous machines whether or not in 20 years having a diving tube of metal full of humans is going to be much use in future defense scenarios.

It seems to me that Biden is trying to get the old "Coalition of the Willing" band back together as a gesture of political strength as their empire continues to weaken.

That worked so well for us last time. Time to break out the old "Freedom Fries" mentality too?

As well as annoying the Chinese, chances are we've damaged our European Free Trade agreement as well.
Remember that we earlier shafted the Japanese to get the deal with the French too.

With the abandoning of the Kurds in Syria and now the Afghans being handed back to the Taliban, America is proving to be an unreliable ally and likewise we're now not so good at living up to international commercial (or climate) agreements.

Hopefully the subs will work OK, unlike the Sea Sprite helicopters we bought that couldn't fly at night or in bad weather or the trouble-plagued F111s and F35s, or our tanks that were too heavy for the bridges in Iraq.

As a parting gift to the Afghan people the American war criminals murdered ten civilians, including seven children. These guys are on our side?

Is Mise,

Now that you have settled down and have and hopefully, dragged out everything you can think of to throw up, you might reflect on the fact that the French 'influence' you got so excited about was on the English language, not on Australia. So, I repeat, Australia owes France sweet FA, and we will survive with without them, as have the English despite warring with them over the ages. There is animosity even today.

ttbn,
Of course, how remiss of me, the English language has nowt to do with Australia.

I comprehend, (from ‘comprehender’ Old French).

Poor, miffed France, eh?

1940. France capitulated to Germany
WW2. Vichy France collaborated with Germany
1958. DeGaulle established a nuclear force, and to hell with "allies"
1966. De Gaulle took France from Nato operational command
1979. Spat on Australia, NZ, Pacific Islands and did nuclear tests
1985. Bombed Rainbow Warrior in NZ.

Is Mise,

What are ya? Mr. Foxy - nonstop yapping and determined to have last say? It's all yours.

Nah,

Is Mise's just ruffling a few feathers.
(smile).

Well done ttbn

For your "Tuesday, 21 September 2021 9:28:07 AM"

ie:

"1940. France capitulated to Germany
WW2. Vichy France collaborated with Germany
1958. DeGaulle established a nuclear force, and to hell with "allies"
1966. De Gaulle took France from Nato operational command
1979. Spat on Australia, NZ, Pacific Islands and did nuclear tests
1985. Bombed Rainbow Warrior in NZ."

And I add that Vichy French troops were killing Australian troops in the Syria-Lebanon Campaign in WW2 http://www.awm.gov.au/collection/E84669

Is Mise just because a few French words have weaseled their way into our language is no reason to but subs, or anything else from them.

The last people you would want to be aligned with, or need to supply parts for your subs, [or cars] is the french.

American traitors were killing our dear English relatives at Valley Forge. Our English relatives were killing our American friends at the Battle of Brandywine. So ttbn what's your point, get over it.

Plantagenet,
Add to ttbn’ s list, Nancy Wake, aka ‘The White Mouse’ who with loyal French men and women was killing Germans in Occupied Franc, and with the aid of the French was supplying vital intelligence to Britain.
Anything derogatory to say about Braille and Pasteur?

Ex-RAN man, Tom Lewis, is all for nuclear submarines, but we should have had them by now. He deplores the defence acquisition system. "Government after government wants to build too many defence platforms here." This should be reserved for minor weapons systems such as patrol boats. "Major builds run late and over-budget", and we "insist on fiddling with the design". We need to simply copy what is already in the water.

Buying new boats for immediate use might not be possible, but apparently the US has vessels in storage, six of which we should "buy or lease now". Not in a decade or even five years. We could have several nuclear boats operating out of Perth within a year, according to Lewis.

Stop and ask the question, why do we need nuclear subs?

Has been,
I’ll second that on cars; all the French cars that I’ve had experience with were very good.
Mostly Renault and I possibly owe my life to the superb handling of a Renault12 when a number of cars went awry on the Sydney Newcastle Expressway and I was able to steer my way through the sudden chaos.

"Stop and ask the question, why do we need nuclear subs?"

Issy, is the Pope a Catholic? What if there is a unprovoked attack on Tasmania by the Ethiopian Navy! What if we want to invade Swaziland by sea? How would Admiral Brassbottom do that unless we have a nuclear powered submarine or battleship or some such thing. These are troubling times, Tuvalu is fast becoming a super power with close ties to the belligerent nation of Niue. We must be ever vigilant and be prepared for a surprise attack at any moment. Recently there were provocative navel exercises involving nuclear powered canoes from both the Tuvalu and Niue navies only 10,000 km from Australia, just outside our territorial waters.

BTW, just the other day an Australian gun boat intercepted Ethiopians fishing in our territorial waters, they had an illegal canoe on our Zambezi River.

Yes Is Mise, we had great service from a Renault 12.

However more recently a company supplied Peugeot spent 3 of it's first 20 months at Zups, waiting for first a new front subframe, then a rear subframe, & finally pistons & a cylinder head, all to come from France, obviously by that original slow boat to china.

A replacement of the same make had the front subframe falling out again in 4 months, when we handed it back, & switched to a car allowance.

Hasbeen,
Not a good experience!!
The only other modern French car that I had much to do with was a Citroen Light 15 all the others were vintage cars, notably a Delarge.
Never managed to have a drive of a Bug though.

ttbn,
You mentioned French words ‘weaselling’’ into the English language, I presume you mean all the approximately 80,000 words that come directly from the French .

Let us not forget our measuring system which is, basically, a French system.

Still no response (Fr.) on what we owe to Braille and Pasteur.

Then there are the links to France through our Scottish heritage, from the Royal Scots Regiment of the French army to the Clan relationships with France, e.g. the MacLeod’s have a Clan MacLeod Society of France which caters for the Maclot, de Leon and Von Leod and other variants of the name.

Do you buy liquids in litres, travel kilometres, buy solids in grams?
Pay for kilowatts of electricity?

Better stick to some other system an avoid that French Connection.

Hi ttbn

Re your "but apparently the US has vessels in storage, six of which we should "buy or lease now""

Are these Virginia class SSN submarines?

Old Los Angeles SSNs, in the USN "boneyard", are no good as they suffer metal fatigue and have old reactors needing years to refuel. Subs over 35 years old (especially nuke subs) are dangerous for their crews and the general public.

AND it will take 10-15 years before the necessary 100s of Aussie submariners and maintainers can be trained up to safely operate nuke subs.

plantagenet says, "AND it will take 10-15 years before the necessary 100s of Aussie submariners and maintainers can be trained up to safely operate nuke subs."

As I commented above, this is what I question about this sub deal: the long time frame. In 15+ years, when these subs are finally delivered and we have staff trained, will they be state-of-the-art? I'm not an expert by any means on navel matters, but the current rate of of automation and AI improvements in the general commercial world is astounding. Mobile robots and other AI controlled autonomous machines are set to explode in numbers into our lives and I expect that will also be the case in the naval world. Indeed, some ports in Europe have been autonomous for quite a while and in Finland they already have an autonomous ferry. In fact the world's first fully autonomous cargo ship is currently going through trials and should be in operation in just a few months: http://edition.cnn.com/2021/08/25/world/yara-birkeland-norway-crewless-container-ship-spc-intl/index.html.

So I question whether in 20 years time whether the world's most advanced Navies will be anything at all like they are now. I will not be surprised at all if in twenty years time these subs are obsolete because some countries have gone down the path of replacing their human crewed vessels with an AI enabled autonomous navy.

thinkabit,
And as China goes down that path, if they are not already well and truly on it, they will make soldiers faster than we ever will; they already do it with humans!!
China has the World’s largest army, 2,185,000.
Australia has 59,000 active and 28,000 reserve.
There are probably more Chinese soldiers having a beer at the moment than we have soldiers in our army.

Is Mise,

The world's most nimble bipedal robots:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tF4DML7FIWk

These are from Boston Dynamics which was originally USA (you probably guessed that from the name) and was then bought by Google and then sold to a Japanese company and is now mainly owned by Korean Hyundai.

It's obvious to anyone who thinks about it that the defence forces of technologically advanced countries in the coming decades are going to be very, very different from what there are today.

ttbn,
Just a reminder that the next time you are buying a new ensemble (Fr.) from St Vinnies, that Australian charity is known as La Societe Saint-Vincent-Paul-par (St.Vincent de Paul Society) in most of the World.
It’s founder was a Frenchman.
They have helped countless Australians over the years since it first started as an Australian institution in 1854.
Current annual assistance in this country is to some 1,900,000 people.

Hope you get something smart.

Hi Issy,

Isn't an ensemble (Fr.) some kind of French cake with cream on top? We Aussies are not so fizz-is-d-cated on those kinds of things. Vinnies great mob do terrific work. Just on the French, I lost my wallet once in Noumea, and it was a Frenchman who returned it, including all the cash and cards. Viva La France! And I think they have a very spoofy national anthem as well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIQSEq6tEVs&ab_channel=BlueMarbleNations

BTW, Its been a week and the election winning nuke subs seems to have been forgotten by most, now its cakes, cars and ensembles.

get over it.
Paul1405,
That's rich coming from the git with the biggest of all chips on his shoulders !

Hi thinkabit

[your Wednesday, 22 September 2021 8:45:08 PM post]

The main problems with underwater drones (unlike aerial drones) are they:

- cannot deliver weapons (like torpedoes and missiles) on the remote orders of weapons/sensor analysts back in Australia. This is part because radio waves or satellite downlinks to underwater vehicles often don't work. Also underwater drones can rarely transmit by satellite uplink to base back in Australia.

- would give away thier posiition even if they could transmit back to Australia.

- are prone to being electronically highjacked by high-tech China who could order Aus underwater drones to torpedo passenger ships/ferries.

- cannot operate autonomously in unexpected situations

- cannot move fast enough ie: too slow, don't have the energy to move at a nuclear submarine's 30 knots underwater over the 1,000s of kms required in an unforeseen emergency

ttbn,
Let us not forget that invention that has helped mankind and womankind to a happier and healthier lifestyle.
Maybe the French didn’t invent it but they have it named after them, at least in English.
The well known and appreciated “French Letter”; rarely does it fail to do the job for which it is intended and many of them helped in WWII by being streatched over the muzzles of artillery pieces to keep out sand and water.

Vive Le Franger Francaise!!

plantagenet: I don't think we've the same idea about autonomous vessels in mind. I not discussing something like a remote controlled machine, but one directed/operated by an onboard artificial intelligence.

So what I've in mind is a hypothetical AI autonomous vessel which is basically a submarine but with no human crew (and as a bonus consequence they can be a lot smaller since they don't need a great void in them for humans to work and live in and also need none of the human life support infrastructure like the oxygen and temperature regulation, etc.). So the tasks they perform are very similar to whatever it is that submarines do now- eg: Note that here I know next to nothing about submarines so I'm just speculating but I imagine the a human captain receives orders for higher up to do things like track a particular ship, or harass/attack any enemy vessel that enters a particular area. And for the sub AI, just as for a human captain, once given a mission it is up to it implement the details without the need for further control/communication from those that gave the orders.

This is currently technically possible with planes and other machines so I don't see how it is impossible to implement it on a submarine. Here is an aircraft that is available to today (in fact these have been around for years) that operates autonomously: http://www.iai.co.il/p/harpy . Basically you give this thing the command to go over to the enemy's side and loiter/wait in the air there scanning the battlefield below and if it detects a worthwhile target it will destroy it (the targets it's interested in are enemy radar- it is not specifically designed to kill people). So you just set it, then forget it and leave it to do its thing, ie: once launched it acts by itself.

The previous example is designed not specifically for killing people, but there do exist autonomous drones that are (in addition to doing other stuff as well). And they're available for purchase today, they're not just prototypes/concept aircraft.

--continued below --

--from above --
Indeed there is speculation that such a drone has already conducted a fully autonomous kill in battle: http://www.newscientist.com/article/2278852-drones-may-have-attacked-humans-fully-autonomously-for-the-first-time (the drone in this article is the Turkish made Kargu-2).

Now, in these examples given I don't think the AI onboard is very advanced. In the first case, from what I understand, the Harpy more-or-less just flies around and listens for enemy radar signals and attacks its source. For the case of the Kargu-2, because it is such a small drone I don't think it could have much in the way of processing power on board so it couldn't be a very advanced AI.

A few years ago AI technology in general was still quite primitive. However, over the last 5 or so years AI (especially neural network based stuff) has really started to rocket ahead. It is truly amazing what current AI can manage to do. One of the best known astounding examples is autonomous driving: cars are rapidly improving and are becoming proficient at self-driving. In some respects and circumstances they are already better than human drivers. There is no reason to not believe that they won't be able to surpass the average driver in terms of safe, smooth and efficient driving in just mere years. So it seems plain to me that given the current rate of general AI improvements that in 20 years it will be mind-blowing what machines can do by themselves. And one very obvious application of this will be in defence. And this is why I suspect a human-crewed sub that will take 15-20 years to become operational will not be in-use for very long before it is obsolete. It may even be obsolete before it is even deployed.

Hi thinkabit

Thanks for advising:

"Note that here I know next to nothing about submarines so I'm just speculating but I imagine the a human captain receives orders for higher up to do things like track a particular ship, or harass/attack any enemy vessel that enters a particular area."

So basically you don't know enough about the inter-action of human crewed submarines with (alaways only partial) IA drones in operational situations.

Cheers

Pete
Of "Submarine Matters" after more than 10 years talking to submariners.
http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/

plantagenet:

/"So basically you don't know enough about the inter-action of human crewed submarines ..."

Why would you say this? The whole point of an autonomous machine is to remove the human element! So it's not at all important what the interaction between the humans on existing crewed submarines is because on an autonomous vessel there are no humans. An example of this is the Norwegian cargo ship that I linked to in a previous post: in just a few months this will operate COMPLETELY autonomously, there will be NO CREW on board! So the fact that current human crewed ships have a Captains, Chief Mates, Second Mates, Boatswains, Able seamen, First Engineers, Second Engineers, Stewards, Cooks, etc. is irrelevant. An autonomous ship simply doesn't need to be designed and operated around the current fixed notions of what people in these positions are responsible for and what they do. All this cargo ship has to be able to do is complete its overall objective: which is to safely and in accordance with the law/customs move cargo from one dock to another. Ie: dock, be unloaded any cargo for delivery, reload with any new cargo, undock, sail to the next destination and then repeat this process (with incidentals like refuel which in this particular case is be plugged in since it's electric, monitor and report on problems, etc.).

/"... IA drones needs to be only partial IA"

Again, why do you say this? The whole point of an completely AUTONOMOUS AI war machine is to be just that, ie: autonomous! There is no fundamental law of physics or computation that says that AI enabled machines need to have a human involved with its operation. It's perfectly plausible to speculate that AI is will one day soonish (almost certainly with two decades) be smart enough to operate a killing machine completely autonomously at a comparable level of proficiency to that of humans. Once we're at this level, you just give the machine an appropriate overall objective and then it goes off on its mission and tries to accomplish this objective.

--continued--

-- from above --

How it goes about this business is up to it, according the standards that its been designed to. Now (hopefully), because Australia is a country that respects human rights and is a signatory to several conventions (esp: the Geneva conventions) any killing machine that we deploy will have very high standards, eg: not killing non-combants, not deliberately destroying civil property, etc. However, other countries (eg: most of Africa and the Middle East) where they just don't give a f!ck about human rights then their killer robots/machines will most likely be allowed to be more cavalier in their methods. But an the end of the day there is no fundamental technological reason why an autonomous killing machine needs a human to be involved in its operation.

In general, from reading what you written, I'm willing to bet that you're not up-to-speed about how advanced current AI technology is. But here's something for you to think about: today I drove my car about 80 km's on an outing. On that drive I passed, within just mere meters, at least 100's of other cars driving the opposite direction at deadly speeds. Also I navigated passed cyclists, over pedestrian crossings, through roundabouts and intersections (some with lights / some not) and dodged debris and potholes. This is an incredibly complicated task that requires me to be capable of operating the car, know the road rules and understand how other people behave so that I can anticipate their actions. And I do all this within a tolerance of just seconds or less of response time and within the tight spatial bounds of the driveable road/lane width. And the most amazing thing is that TODAY CARS CAN DO THIS almost as well as a humans!! After thinking about this, hopefully you can acknowledge just how vastly complicated safely driving a car is* and how astounding it is that we are currently of the cusp of full-self driving cars

-- continued below --

-- from above --

(in fact in some parts of the world they are already deployed but these are special cases where the speed limits are low and on specific routes- such as a shuttle services between two parts of an airport). And this should give you some impression of just how advanced AI currently is.

Lastly, if after reading all this you really do believe that an AI couldn't possibly operate a sub then I challenge you to provide, from your knowledge of having talked to submariners, just three examples of something that you believe a captain of a sub can do that an AI in twenty years time won't be able to do.

*(I should point out here that driving a car is something that obviously requires way more concentration and continual hands-on-control than safely sailing a vessel in an ocean. When sailing the open ocean, about the only thing you can hit are other vessels. Since the other vessels are typically km's away and moving at slow/moderate speeds (compared to a car) you have plenty of time and space to manoeuvre in. And these days almost all large vessels are equipped with an array of instruments and automatic guidance/warning systems to tell you exactly where every other vessel is and where they're heading to and whether there is any chance of a collision. Automating a ship for sailing is a piece of cake compared to automating car driving. Again, as I've said, ships are now capable of being COMPLETELY automated- that cargo ship in Norway will be operating with NO crew on board in just a few months.)

thinkabit,

All of which confirms, in my mind, that the Govt has had that advice from it’s thinkers and that the French subs were going to be worse than obsolete and that the nuclear subs are only a hopefully vote getting smoke screen designed to fool the voters and the workers in SA..
One thing that the human controlled subs can do that an AI controlled one won’t, is run aground by accident.

Issy, one thing that appealed to me about the French subs was the open air Promenade Deck one could take advantage off whilst cruising under water.

BTW, at the end of 'Soylent Green', Edward G Robinson was given a bowl of strawberries as his final wish.

Paul1405

Your unfunny flippancy continues to waste everyone's time.

Your standards have dropped badly to pathetic Tweet point scoring.

Hi thinkabit

It may be useful to combine you AI future viewing with the most advanced large undersea drone which is Echo Voyager

- in my 2016 article http://gentleseas.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-echo-voyager-lduuv-great-for.html it was already advanced - useful for towing sonars, reconnaissance, particularly in shallow waters too dangerous for manned submarines.

and

- its still improving rapidly

See http://www.boeing.com/defense/autonomous-systems/echo-voyager/

"Echo Voyager’s advanced autonomy allows it to operate effectively in clear and congested waters without physical human contact.

Endurance: Echo Voyager’s range covers 6,500 nm (1 fuel module) allowing the vehicle to perform long endurance operations.

Host ship independent: Echo Voyager is not launched from or recovered to a support vessel, nor does it require a support vessel for operation.

Modular: The 51-foot-long [Echo Voyager] is designed to incorporate a modular payload section for multiple uses up to 34 feet in length and 2000 cubic feet in volume, and can include payloads extending outside of its envelope.

Navigation: The [Extra Large Unmanned Undersea Vehicle's [XLUUV’s] navigation system features a proven Kalman filtered Inertial Navigation Unit supported by Doppler Velocity Logs and depth sensors offering superior directional accuracy.

Powered by a hybrid combination of battery technology and marine diesel generators, Echo Voyager is truly a game-changing platform, capable of performing as a multi-mission system and playing a pivotal role in future force structure."

plantagenet,

And there is the future writ large, aircraft are almost autonomous and can take off, journey and land without human hands being on the controls.
All the technology is there and twenty years from now will be well nigh out of sight.

Twenty years ago if someone had told me that I could sit in my lounge room and have a face to face conversation with my son in Ireland, in real time, and he could walk around his garden and shew me how his veggies were doing, then I probably would have considered it a joke, if not a serious delusion.

Times are ever changing.

Anyone remember Dick Tracy’s wrist radio?