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The Forum > General Discussion > Brexit ramifications in Scotland and Ireland

Brexit ramifications in Scotland and Ireland

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Calls for Scottish independence has not been stronger in decades and the desire for it to join the EU has 2:1 support.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-55803103

Strong voices are heard about the climate now being right for a reunification of the two Irelands.

Those who have seemingly played into the hands of Britain's principle enemy, namely the Russian state, look like getting to see a further unraveling after Brexit. Trump has also allowed for an embolden Russia.

"The threats to Europe have not diminished. In recent years, Russia has strengthened its forces facing NATO. In early June, Moscow said that it had reinforced its Western Military District, adding about 3,000 men and 90 tanks to the First Guards Tank Army (which had itself been reactivated in 2014, and already had between 35,000 and 50,000 troops and 500-600 tanks). Trump’s announcement of troop reductions in Germany came soon afterwards."

All going swimmingly to plan thanks a raft of useful idiots.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Saturday, 30 January 2021 7:04:18 PM
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Scotland is a burden on the UK. It should be cut adrift to defend for itself.
Posted by ttbn, Sunday, 31 January 2021 7:42:51 AM
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TTbn,

Presumably Scotland will seek to join the EU as an independent state (for the time being) within minutes of a positive referendum outcome.

And similarly, all of Ireland will become one country within the EU.

So if anything, it may be that England (and perhaps Wales?) will be cut adrift. That will please the EU AND the English: win-win.

Joe
Posted by loudmouth2, Sunday, 31 January 2021 10:06:04 AM
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The Scots would be dumb enough to actually join something that the UK has just rejected, and something other countries are now regretting they signed up to. Now that the Brits have had the courage to give the flick to the Brussels dictatorship, others might do the same and start trading with Australia rather than China.
Posted by ttbn, Sunday, 31 January 2021 10:17:13 AM
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A bit of comedy on a Sunday morning is always welcome.

"Britain's principle enemy, namely the Russian state..."

I think the Obamessiah said it best..." And the 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back. Because the Cold War has been over for 20 years.[now 30 years]"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0IWe11RWOM

" the desire for it to join the EU has 2:1 support..."

Well that's so. But the desire to separate from the UK has DEclined since Brexit was finally implemented.

"Trump’s announcement of troop reductions in Germany came soon afterwards...."

And the decision to INcrease troop levels in Poland, which for the clueless is CLOSER to Russia, was announced at the same time. But let's not complicate the narrative with the facts, eh?

" Trump has also allowed for an embolden Russia."

Despite the fact that there isn't the slightest scintilla of evidence that Trump did anything to help Russia or was enthralled to Russia, those who just want it to be true continue to believe it.
Posted by mhaze, Sunday, 31 January 2021 11:09:03 AM
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Dear mhaze,

As a useful idiot for the Russians you are top notch.

Thankfully the UK Intelligence and Security Commission is not downplaying the threat.

Quote

The committee said Russian influence in the UK was now "the new normal", and the UK was a "top Western intelligence target" for the state, only behind Nato and US.

ISC member, Stewart Hosie, told reporters the government "took its eye off the ball, because of its focus on counterterrorism", adding: "The government had badly underestimated the response required to the Russian threat, and is still playing catch up."

In its report, the group said UK was "clearly a target" for disinformation campaigns around its elections, but that the issue was described as a "hot potato", with no one organisation taking a lead to tackle it.

The report criticised intelligence agencies for not taking action during the EU referendum, despite there being "credible open source commentary" suggesting "influence campaigns" from the Russians during the Scottish independence referendum in 2014.

And it said the government only "belatedly realised the level of threat which Russia could pose" after the so-called "hack and leak" operation against the Democrats in the 2016 US election, calling it a "game changer".

The committee said: "Had the relevant parts of the intelligence community conducted a similar threat assessment prior to the [EU] referendum, it is inconceivable that they would not have reached the same conclusion as to Russian intent, which might then have led them to take action to protect the process."

End Quote

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-53484344
Posted by SteeleRedux, Sunday, 31 January 2021 1:33:06 PM
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Dear loudmouth2,

You said: "Presumably Scotland will seek to join the EU as an independent state (for the time being) within minutes of a positive referendum outcome."

indeed. The mood continues to sour in Scotland and Boris' shambolic response to Covid hasn't earned him any favours.

This gentleman posted in the Sub-Reddit /r/Scotland sums up the mood of many.

http://www.reddit.com/r/Scotland/comments/l765jz/pretty_much_everyone_in_scotland_right_now/
Posted by SteeleRedux, Sunday, 31 January 2021 1:36:07 PM
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Oh, sorry, Russia running a disinformation campaign during the UK elections makes them "Britain's principle enemy"? Well that's a pretty low bar and if that's the worst that "Britain's principle enemy" can do then the UK is in pretty good shape.

Oh but wait....China also runs disinformation campaigns against the UK both during elections and at other times. So by our low bar that means China is "Britain's principle enemy". OMG.

Oh but wait....Iran ran disinformation campaigns against the UK during the elections and at other times. So by our low bar that means Iran is "Britain's principle enemy". OMG.

Oh but wait....there was a report a while back that India has been running disinformation campaigns against the EU in general and the UK in particular. So by our low bar that means India is "Britain's principle enemy". OMG.

Oh but wait....there have been reports....

Struth, Britain's got a sh!tload of principle enemies. Either that or SR's talking through his hat. Tough choice!!

BTW "The mood continues to sour in Scotland ..." But the article SR originally linked said the exact opposite of that and that less people would support leaving the UK now as compared to last year. I guess he got bamboozled by the figures...happens alot.
Posted by mhaze, Sunday, 31 January 2021 5:05:51 PM
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Dear mhaze,

My my you do flail around when you don't have an argument don't you.

This is from the report:

“Despite its economic weakness, it nonetheless heavily resources its intelligence services and armed forces, which are disproportionately large and powerful. Moreover, Russia is adept at using its apparent weaknesses to its advantage: for example, its poor national brand and lack of long-term global friends appear to feed its enormous risk appetite – perhaps on the basis that it thinks it has nothing to lose; its lack of democracy and rule of law allows its intelligence agencies to act quickly, without constraint or consideration; and its lack of strong independent public bodies and the fusion of government and business allow it to leverage all its intelligence, military and economic power at the same time to pose an all-encompassing security threat.”

And,

“The security threat posed by Russia is difficult for the West to manage as, in our view and that of many others, it appears fundamentally nihilistic. Russia seems to see foreign policy as a zero-sum game: any actions it can take which damage the West are fundamentally good for Russia. It is also seemingly fed by paranoia, believing that Western institutions such as NATO and the EU have a far more aggressive posture towards it than they do in reality. There is also a sense that Russia believes that an undemocratic ‘might is right’ world order plays to its strengths, which leads it to seek to undermine the Rules Based International Order – whilst nonetheless benefitting from its membership of international political and economic institutions.”
http://docs.google.com/a/independent.gov.uk/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=aW5kZXBlbmRlbnQuZ292LnVrfGlzY3xneDo1Y2RhMGEyN2Y3NjM0OWFl

So a the Poms view Russia as a "fundamentally nihilistic", "all-encompassing threat" and you sit there making vapid statements about the Cold War being over and others are doing it too so Putin can't be all bad. Useful idiot status confirmed old chap.

Look I know you make every effort to try and get one over on me and I'm not complaining as you can be a nice diversion but dishing up this 3rd grade rubbish needs to stop.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Sunday, 31 January 2021 6:04:39 PM
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Dear mhaze,

Oh and on a Scottish independence vote here this compilation of polls show that for the last year the Scots have been quite firmly in favour of independence from the start of last year.

So when you mince in and say: “But the article SR originally linked said the exact opposite of that and that less people would support leaving the UK now as compared to last year. I guess he got bamboozled by the figures...happens alot.”

You once again are talking out of your backside.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence#:~:text=In%20the%20referendum%2C%20on%2018,an%20overall%20turnout%20of%2084.6%25.

In 5 years they will be gone and will join the EU.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Sunday, 31 January 2021 6:20:10 PM
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Your problem SR is that you make these wild yet quite specific claims which are little more than assertions you hope are true and then try to back them up with increasingly less relevant factoids.

Case in point: you assert that Putin interfered in the Brexit vote so as to help the Leave case because it would advantage Russia.

Now that Russia monkeyed about with the vote is undoubtedly true. The rest is rubbish. There's no reason to think that the UK leaving the EU helps Russia one iota except in your fevered mind.

But then to try to justify your assertions you find something about disinformation and pretend that's decisive. Until the notion is mocked.

Then its on to some report from a decade ago that is more about how Russia is a menace to the EU.

Its all bonkers. If you thought more about your wild assertions from the outset you wouldn't look such a fool and you wouldn't have to double-down with increasingly foolish factoids.

Russia is a menace to the West although these days it more of a nuisance. It doesn't have the wherewithal to seriously threaten eastern Europe let alone the UK unless it went full nuclear. That it meddles in elections and votes is clear. But it unclear that it has a clear aim each time other than to make the west more factitious. When they meddled in the 2016 election they offered clandestine support to both sides - more to Trump before the vote, more to Hilary after the vote.

As to Scotland and leaving...you originally claimed that they were more likely to leave because of Johnson's leadership. But the polls you originally quoted said the opposite although that probably went over your head. Since then you've been trying to find a form of words to extricate you from that from that self-imposed mess.

You seems to spend half your time here doing that.
Posted by mhaze, Monday, 1 February 2021 12:35:54 PM
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SR,

I don't know why you are banging on about Scottish independence. The latest poll indicates a preference of 52% pro-independence which would most probably evaporate once a real referendum takes place (not due until 2034) when the Scots face the reality of losing the nearly $4000 p.a. subsidy per person from the rest of the UK and a border between Scotland and 80% of its export market.

The Scottish National socialist party AKA the SNP is whipping up Nationalist fervour to cover-up its policy failures. The bubble is sure to break at some point.
Posted by shadowminister, Tuesday, 2 February 2021 2:37:50 AM
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Dear mhaze,

Bloody hell mate another low grade effort typified by the fact you dribble out stuff like this:

"Then its on to some report from a decade ago that is more about how Russia is a menace to the EU."

It was from last year you dolt.

It is okay to come out of your Trump fog now and check the reality. Russia is not your friend and it isn't up to you to convince others of how benign they supposedly are any more.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 2 February 2021 8:19:40 AM
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