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The Forum > General Discussion > James Kunstler's View of the Long Emergency

James Kunstler's View of the Long Emergency

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BIg difference between US and Austalia is that our social services are consistent throughout our states where much more unequal in USA, albeit offices are closing more in some.

I think Aust is ranked near top for reducing city-rural divide.

I live in Albury, so not that much difference from a big city.

In the end, you have no choice but to do the best you can if you choose to live in dying towns. I know some are being revitlaised through immigrants working in local industries where there was a labour shortage.
Posted by Chris Lewis, Sunday, 24 May 2020 12:44:14 PM
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Never mind Paul, sometimes people can learn from others mistakes.
It probably does pay to watch what happens elsewhere.
I think that is what happened to those experimental socialist regimes.
They just watched through dark glasses at the rest of the world.
Posted by Bazz, Sunday, 24 May 2020 12:44:51 PM
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James Kunstler's book was essentially an examination of the consequences of peak oil, the resultant end to cheap oil and the subsequent economic upheaval.

The only problem is:

* peak oil didn't happen
* we currently have more known oil reserves than at any time in history
* oil prices (adjusted for inflation and pre-WuFlu) are the among the lowest ever.

So his prognostications are about as useful as those of the local paper's astrologer.
Posted by mhaze, Sunday, 24 May 2020 2:06:11 PM
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I'm juggling 6 books at the moment. Can't take on another. The poor fella has an unfortunate name. I note that the Long Emergency is 15 years old. How did his predictions go? He is also a novelist. Might get fiction confused with fact?
Posted by ttbn, Sunday, 24 May 2020 6:34:50 PM
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Well Mhaze you make the assumption that many make; peak oil (crude)
did occur in November/December 2005.
The oil industry dug around in history and found fracking.
That has given us and extra 15 years to do something about it.
Well the rate of bankruptcies in the fracking companies and the moves
of the majors to look at ways to exit the oil industry rings a bell.

Yes his fiction books did expect that would be the cause of the hinted
at war that removed Washington from the scene.
As I have said I believe he exaggerates what will happen.
He said the banking & finance would be in dire straights by August
last year, and it did not happen. His description of what is happening
to the towns and small cities seems realistic enough when you see
sone videos of Detroit and othe manufacturing cities in the US.
There is a web site for closed down large Shopping Centres !
However the scenarios he proposes are likely if the current situation
goes on for a year or two.
Posted by Bazz, Sunday, 24 May 2020 6:36:54 PM
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ttbn, as far as what is known as the rust belt pretty much to plan.
There are many small towns around such as Pittsburgh and the car
making cities in Michigan that have basically been abandoned and the
houses just left to rot. They were just used as sources of scrap
copper pipes etc. I have seen some videos a few years back and it was
really a sad sight as they were once somebodies home.
It is these people who voted for Trump.

If we do not get our agricultural business going, get our wool business
ready pushing to replace synthetics for which oil will not be available
we will suffer financially. Agriculture will give us the wherewithal
to finance a return of our manufacturing. As I asked someonelse how
do we do that without tarrifs ?
Under the present free trade arrangements tarrifs are virtually forbidden.
Posted by Bazz, Sunday, 24 May 2020 11:05:41 PM
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