I have been a reader of James Kunstlers book for some years now.
His theme is that America is heading for a long disaster.
First it was due to the peaking of oil production which he always said
was no more than a symbolic start to the problem.
His main argument is that America's building of suburban America was
unsustainable and together with buying everything from other countries
will ultimately fail and would result in "The Long Emergency" the title
of one of his books.
Note of course he writes only about the US but I can see the
similarities to Australia but the lucky country will be somewhat better off.
This link is to his latest blog which may enable us to see their future
and take it as a warning.

http://tinyurl.com/y7u68ovm

Try your local library for a copy of World Made by Hand his novel
about America after the collapse. A very interesting insight how
American small towns survive. If it is not there, search his name
and they can borrow from other libraries.
Very current, in view of Targets closing.
ps if any of you are readers of Kunstler I would like to hear your comment.

To be honest Bazz, some might want to discuss Mr Kunsttler and his book about Yanks, but for me its just another big yawn. Is this book in the 50 cent bargain bin at Target? Good luck with it anyway.

Good thread idea Bazz.

I think a lot of western countries are in a similar boat.

I would like to think it is not a decline, but more of an era where we need to think about the strengths and weaknesses of our past, and how we can apply our best aspects to future needs.

I don't see Australia in disrepair, but I do think we will need a dramatic change to ensure we remain a fair and decent society.

Of course, this is hard for western countries, as our economies face much greater pressure from the advantages evident in developing countries.

If the challenges prove beyond repair, then it may well be that Australia will have to reverse some of the policy norms they have accepted in recent times.

If not, then our way of life may be decimated with many who will lose out (and already are).

"Living in The Long Emergency" is Kunstler's
latest book. And its a unique and timely
expose of how the lives of everyday Americans
are being transformed for better or worse.

An interesting read for those interested in
American affairs.

Yes Foxy, I think Kunstler is very pessimistic but probably accurate
if that is not a contradiction.
I would think the US would go part way towards Kunstler's vision but
the story around the small town doctor trying to treat his patients
with 20th cent knowledge and 19th century facilities would be of
interest to doctors, and their patients.
The way that various trades and shops in the town made do one way or
another as much manufacturing had disappeared and the US government
had largely ceased to function.
The point of the book, is not why it happened but how the people were
able to still live and work around it all.

Chris, perhaps this whole Carrona virus problem may cause a rethink but
if the startup is smooth I don't think much will change.
There should be a rearrangement of our trading connections but I would
not bet on it.
Might cause a war if we were to ban the export of baby formula tins.
You never know what a uprising by mothers in China might trigger.

Still seriously, there must be a lot of room for expansion in India
of their high tech manufacturing at good prices.
However that would just be changing from one unfriendly source to
another perhaps unreliable source.
How do we return to our own manufacturing without a major regime of tarrifs ?

BIg difference between US and Austalia is that our social services are consistent throughout our states where much more unequal in USA, albeit offices are closing more in some.

I think Aust is ranked near top for reducing city-rural divide.

I live in Albury, so not that much difference from a big city.

In the end, you have no choice but to do the best you can if you choose to live in dying towns. I know some are being revitlaised through immigrants working in local industries where there was a labour shortage.

Never mind Paul, sometimes people can learn from others mistakes.
It probably does pay to watch what happens elsewhere.
I think that is what happened to those experimental socialist regimes.
They just watched through dark glasses at the rest of the world.

James Kunstler's book was essentially an examination of the consequences of peak oil, the resultant end to cheap oil and the subsequent economic upheaval.

The only problem is:

* peak oil didn't happen
* we currently have more known oil reserves than at any time in history
* oil prices (adjusted for inflation and pre-WuFlu) are the among the lowest ever.

So his prognostications are about as useful as those of the local paper's astrologer.

I'm juggling 6 books at the moment. Can't take on another. The poor fella has an unfortunate name. I note that the Long Emergency is 15 years old. How did his predictions go? He is also a novelist. Might get fiction confused with fact?

Well Mhaze you make the assumption that many make; peak oil (crude)
did occur in November/December 2005.
The oil industry dug around in history and found fracking.
That has given us and extra 15 years to do something about it.
Well the rate of bankruptcies in the fracking companies and the moves
of the majors to look at ways to exit the oil industry rings a bell.

Yes his fiction books did expect that would be the cause of the hinted
at war that removed Washington from the scene.
As I have said I believe he exaggerates what will happen.
He said the banking & finance would be in dire straights by August
last year, and it did not happen. His description of what is happening
to the towns and small cities seems realistic enough when you see
sone videos of Detroit and othe manufacturing cities in the US.
There is a web site for closed down large Shopping Centres !
However the scenarios he proposes are likely if the current situation
goes on for a year or two.

ttbn, as far as what is known as the rust belt pretty much to plan.
There are many small towns around such as Pittsburgh and the car
making cities in Michigan that have basically been abandoned and the
houses just left to rot. They were just used as sources of scrap
copper pipes etc. I have seen some videos a few years back and it was
really a sad sight as they were once somebodies home.
It is these people who voted for Trump.

If we do not get our agricultural business going, get our wool business
ready pushing to replace synthetics for which oil will not be available
we will suffer financially. Agriculture will give us the wherewithal
to finance a return of our manufacturing. As I asked someonelse how
do we do that without tarrifs ?
Under the present free trade arrangements tarrifs are virtually forbidden.

"Well Mhaze you make the assumption that many make; peak oil (crude)
did occur in November/December 2005."

1. Prior to 2005 the peak oil scaremongers weren't talking about just conventional oil but oil overall. They/you have just inserted that crude oil descriptor to hide the fact that they/you were wrong.

2. Even then 2005 wasn't the peak for conventional since its now been exceed in the late 2010's as Opec + Russia tried to destroy the US frackers through overwhelming production.

3. The fracking industry isn't dying and didn't just find an extra decade or two of oil. they found centuries of new oil.

Even after all that the original assertions by Kunstler and the peak oil cultists was that oil will become more expensive and therefore western civilisation will wither. Irrespective of whether conventional oil peaked, even the cultists can't hide the fact that oil is now more plentiful and cheaper than ever before. Therefore their scarenonger remains invalid.

Mhaze you got it totally wrong.
Conventional oil IS CRUDE oil.
The use of crude is to differentiate with fracking oil, or to use the
correct term "Tight Oil".
If you think the Fracking industry is thriving you need to research
it rather more. The wells in operation have fallen from 1400 to about
500 the last I remember. Bankruptcy management is their main news.
Even Chesapeake is on the way out and why do you think BHP got out ?

"Mhaze you got it totally wrong.
Conventional oil IS CRUDE oil."

Yes. I used the words 'conventional' and 'crude' as synonyms. Re-read what I wrote and substitute your favoured word 'crude' when you see me writing 'conventional' and you'll see your error.

"The wells in operation have fallen from 1400 to about
500 the last I remember."

Fracking wells - Feb2019 ....776
Fracking wells - Feb2020 ....807

If you are right that the USA fracking industry is on its last legs, why did Russia feel the need back in Feb to pull out its OPEC deals and force the price of oil down to put pressure on the US frackers. If you are right, they could have just let the industry die.

But its not dying. Its thriving.

The malthusian doomsayers of the peak oil cultists were wrong. Malthusian doomsayers are always wrong.

Irrespective, its undoubtedly a fact that oil prices are at historic lows, even before the WuFlu hit. So the whole premise of Kunstler's prognostications is invalidated.