Yuyutsu

i do not get your argument.

How does anyone form an opinion if they are not aware of the strengths and weaknesses of other opinions?

how does policy evolve without a discussion of diverse opinions?

How can a policy be formulated if it does not take account of a majority of opinions on many issues?

30 years from now? Well there's only one thing you can be sure of and that is that no matter what you think will happen will inevitably be wrong. As Yogi Berra said "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

Think about 30 years ago - 1990. No cell phones - the first iPhone more that 15 years away. No social media. No Wikipedia. Effectively no internet. Windows 3.1 a few years away. Myriad wrong predictions from peak oil to ice free arctic to flooded Manhattan.

Who knows what's just around the corner. What new inventions, not considered now, will pop up to utterly change the world.

So having said that, these are my predictions for what they're worth.

The environment will be much the same as now but somewhat improved. Even though we have more people world wide, there is more food being grown per capita, on less land and using less inputs of fertiliser and water. Current developing nations will have developed to the point where they start to put more effort into improving the environment than increasing the GDP. Peking is no longer an environmental problem.

Forests in most of the world will be increasing and man's foot-print decreasing. Rivers will be cleaner. Most endangered species no longer endangered.

World population will still be increasing but at a decreasing rate and almost all the increase will be in Africa which will be the centre of environmental concerns. Although the point where the world's human population starts declining will be someways off yet, that horizon will be clearly visible.

Somewhere around 2040, battery technology reached a point where solar and wind were competitive with fossil fuels for energy production in many parts of the world. Oil/coal will remain the main fuel for transport and in the colder regions for energy production. Emissions will continue to rise but the great AGW scare will be long gone.

The world as a whole will b twice as rich as now and therefore much better able to afford mitigation measures from any adverse aspects of a climate changes.

Chris,

I think your attempt to encourage meaningful discourse on a serious topic is now being hijacked by The Forum's Class 1 loonies.

mhaze

Brilliant, except how do you factor in political corruption and its influence on positive decision making?

Dan

yes, the issue of corruption and poor status of many nations cannot be ignored, as seen by the latter's high rate of deforestation

Dear Chris Lewis,

Socialism and capitalism are not either/or propositions for most countries and for you to dismiss socialism as a function of decent economic and environmental outcomes is shortsighted.

Arguably the most hyper-capitalistic nations on the planet is the US. It has the highest percentage of its population being bars, some of the worse child mortality rates compared to its PP GDP and it willfully dismantling many of its environmental regulations.

Well I invite you to look at the nation of Costa Rica.

It spends roughly 6.9% of its budget on education, compared to a global average of 4.4%, Australia sits at 5.9.

It abolished its army in 1944 and directed the money toward education and health.

You have told us “I want to offer my opinion about policy possibilities and limitations with regard to the state of the global environment in 2050.”

Costa Rica has an impressive environmental record,

“It is the only country to meet all five UNDP criteria established to measure environmental sustainability. It was ranked 42nd in the world, and third in the Americas, in the 2016 Environmental Performance Index, and was twice ranked the best performing country in the New Economics Foundation's (NEF) Happy Planet Index, which measures environmental sustainability, and was identified by the NEF as the greenest country in the world in 2009. Costa Rica plans to become a carbon-neutral country by 2021. By 2016, 98.1% of its electricity was generated from green sources particularly hydro, solar, geothermal and biomass.”
Wikipedia

“Notably, after decades of deforestation, Costa Rica is one of the very few countries in the world that has more than doubled its forest cover during the past 30 years. Now, in 2019, half of the country's land surface is covered with trees, which are able to absorb a huge amount of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.”
http://www.horizontes.com/blog/costa-rica-doubles-its-forest-cover-and-leads-world-in-climate-emergency-fight

In 1994 it passed an amendment to its constitution which established the right to a healthy and ecologically balanced environment.

Hopefully you will glean something from reading about the efforts of this inspiring country.