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The Forum > General Discussion > Is the world truly in trouble?

Is the world truly in trouble?

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Mr Opinion,

Would a big soothing hug help?
Posted by Foxy, Monday, 22 July 2019 11:55:46 AM
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Might pass on the offer. Just a good old fashioned discussion is what I'm looking for.
Posted by Mr Opinion, Monday, 22 July 2019 12:06:43 PM
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"very few people
would deny that the planet has a finite amount
of resources ….. If world population
continues to grow rapidly, if industrialisation
spreads around the world, and if pollution and
resource depletion continues at an increasing
rate - and all these things are happening - where
is human society headed?"

Short answer...human society is headed for a bright future.

The fact is there is no resource depletion. As I've said here many times, humankind have never, ever, run out of any resource. Never have, never will. Equally pollution is not get worse but in fact getting better. All first-world economies have seen dramatic reductions in pollution over the last 50 years. Many developing economies still have high levels of pollution but as they become richer and better able to afford mitigation measures, those levels of pollution fall. And they have the benefit of knowing how to mitigate pollution by copying from the first-world nations.

There are many ways to understand these issues. But it needs to be noted that all predictions of decline have always been proven wrong, from Malthus to Ehrlich. We didn't run out of oil when we were supposed to. Peak oil didn't happen. Predictions of exhaustion of copper, aluminium, coal, food etc etc etc have all been shown to be wrong.

One the best examinations of this that I've seen over the past decade is the calculations toward the Simon Abundance Index (SAI) which found that as the population increases the availability of resources increases and real price decreases. ( http://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/simon-abundance-index-new-way-measure-availability-resources#full ). The notion and calculations are complex particularly for those without a statistical bent, so a summary of the conclusions is here... http://humanprogress.org/article.php?p=1603&fbclid=IwAR3qbgn4mOJcqzFSU19A74HgQ18wd54Uje-ofVNLdX8nsfYE7Jx0Xn6TsJ0

/cont
Posted by mhaze, Monday, 22 July 2019 12:07:41 PM
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/cont

I know that the notion of increasing population resulting in increasing resources is counter-intuitive and that for many that equates to the notion being wrong. Its difficult to think outside the box when you don't even realise you're inside a box. As Simon said...“As population increases, the time-price of most commodities will get cheaper for most people, most of the time. Unfortunately, most people will assume the opposite.”

Further on that idea..."The world is a closed system in the way that a piano is a closed system. The instrument has only 88 notes, but those notes can be played in a nearly infinite variety of ways. The same applies to our planet. The Earth’s atoms may be fixed, but the possible combinations of those atoms are infinite. " . While theoretically, each resource is finite, the greatest resource on the planet, the human brain, is infinite. And there are a lot more of that resource today than in the past.

________________________________________________________________

It seems that humankind has an instinctive apocalyptic bent. Generations as far back as we know, have believed in the end-of-times that is near. No matter the increase in scientific knowledge, people revert to that instinct. In 1000 AD Y1K, like Y2K, elicited mass hysteria, which like Y2K had no basis in fact. Over the millennia, this fear of impending doom was satisfied by religion. Most religions have an end-times scenario. But as religion declines its been replaced by other end-times myths, from nuclear Armageddon to AGW to mass starvation to asteroid impact to Trump.
And while the world and our place in it have improved dramatically in the past 300 years (eg average life epectancy has gone from 29 to 72 years), people want to, need to, beleive the opposite. Its both sad and entirely to be expected. So fear not Belly, the world isn't truly in trouble.

The very opposite in fact.
Posted by mhaze, Monday, 22 July 2019 12:07:47 PM
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Foxy,
Came across this. It is original from Jan 1 1988

Arranged by Tommy Tycho and sung by Julie Anthony. The orchestra is Sydney Sympathy, I think the Government one is with a military band.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x_4JTxzWFFg
Posted by HenryL, Monday, 22 July 2019 12:34:33 PM
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First mhaze opinions, everyone has them, and every one has a right to them
Telling what one is the right one is endlessly imposable
We, mankind, have seen the extinction of many life forms in our time, contributed to or actually been the reason
Population, maybe, in my view for sure, we are right now in places on this world overpopulated
In fact have been for at least half a century, the famines in Southern Africa is proof
Water restrictions,not just there but even here, are not just drought, but recurring droughts, maybe the new reality droughts
Are a reason for emerging, but to grow much much worse, refugee flows
We do not do refugees well in this country, but it will get worse, world wide
Posted by Belly, Monday, 22 July 2019 1:06:49 PM
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