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The Forum > General Discussion > Are we or the world headed for a debt crisis

Are we or the world headed for a debt crisis

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Calem Malem nothing in that I do not totally agree with
But we can not control interest rates, world trade foreign debt, personal debt [of others]
We have no real control over oil prices or other country,s debt
Stock markets fell today on fears about the America China trade war
History warns us markets are not forever good investments
personally? reduce our own debt, buy only in cash, go without until you can
Posted by Belly, Friday, 30 November 2018 11:00:29 AM
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Canem,
Australia's still at the stage of the economic cycle where there's too little consumption.

_____________________________________________________________________________________

Belly,
When our interest rates were 17%, inflation was a lot higher and the economy was booming, driven by a highly speculative private sector after a substantial cut to the corporate tax rate. Treasurer Keating chose to raise interest rates to kill off the boom, but he went much too far (and even he admits he was far too slow to cut them again afterwards). And in hindsight it seems pretty clear that rather than killing off the boom (which resulted in enormous economic collateral damage) he should have just dampened it by temporarily raising the corporate tax rate. (I've heard claims election promises effectively ruled out this option; I don't know whether that's true or not)

Nowadays, inflation is very low, Australia's economy is almost stagnant, the private sector's far less speculative, and in the unlikely event that corporate taxes are cut, it will be gradual rather than sudden. Because of the low interest rates, Australians do borrow more - but that means the economy is more sensitive to interest rate movements. Double digit inflation rates are consigned to the dustbin of history. Right now inflation's BELOW the RBA's target band. If it gets above the band, the RBA will raise interest rates, but importantly they won't raise them MUCH.

Banks are now a lot more cautious than before the GFC, the capital requirements are higher, the risk of CDSs are better understood, and there isn't the misevaluation of securitised assets that there used to be. So the events that caused the GFC won't be replicated.

And now at last the US government's running a more expansionary fiscal policy, the US economy can withstand higher interest rates.

There are many things that could cause a downturn, but not a catastrophic downturn. And in nearly all cases they're easy to recover from. The one exception is if conflict arose preventing us from trading with China.
Posted by Aidan, Friday, 30 November 2018 12:34:04 PM
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Rache, Belly, if you want to have any credibility, you have to stop lying by inference.

Everyone knows, even you pair, that Gillard designed & left a number of time bombs for any government that followed her. She knew she was for the high jump, even if Labor held government, so set up some very costly, to get back at us for being disgusted by her.

NDIS & Gonski are just 2 better known of dozens of programs she got through parliament, which required little spending immediately, but had exponential growth of spending locked in.

What you can blame on the libs is not having the guts to get rid of these ridiculous spending programs. They should have bitten the bullet, & chucked the lot out. Yes their ABC would have screamed blue murder, but so what. No one with a brain listens to the ABC today, & the dills that do are going to vote Labor/green anyway. They would have cemented their credibility with all seriously thinking people, & kept the budget deficit down.

Of course, if they had real guts, they would have defunded the ABC & got some truth into the debate.

So kiddies, if you want to be taken seriously in this game, try not telling a host of porkies. As soon as the porkies start we know you have no legitimate argument to use.
Posted by Hasbeen, Friday, 30 November 2018 12:50:51 PM
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Comment- But we can not control interest rates, world trade foreign debt, personal debt [of others]

Answer-
Bank Interest Rates are influenced by the Reserve Bank but there are advantages and disadvantages.
Foreign Debt is influenced by foreign spending- there are a few ways of managing these but again advantages and disadvantages- some consider it inapproapriate to adopt policy contradicting Free Trade. We need to be prepared to accept that other nations won't buy our product if we restrict theirs. One way to manage this might be with natural resources- If we demand that nations manufacture goods here from the raw materials then we get greater value for our scarce resources.
Personal Debt- Influenced by interest rate. I'm sure that there are other measures such as reducing accessibility to credit cards. Changing bank risk loan criteria and duty of care. This is an example of Tough Love/ Responsible Freedom policies where freedom is reduced to increase manageability. Those that have bank shares would be unhappy.

Comment- We have no real control over oil prices or other country,s debt. Stock markets fell today on fears about the America China trade war. History warns us markets are not forever good investments
personally? reduce our own debt, buy only in cash, go without until you can

Answer- We can insulate ourselves against Global forces to a point by being selective about participation. Oil prices are an issue due to the fact that cars are designed to use oil- cars and road vehicles are critical parts of modern infrastructure- we need to find solutions to this. Given nations have large populations new solutions become more difficult to implement. There are people working on this difficult problem many of the potential solutions have issues- these solutions need to satisfy the following criteria- comparable weight/ energy density/ safety, compatible with fleet and distribution capacity. Some solutions comprise "engine/ fuel" replacement some just "fuels". Cars are one of the main items that hook countries into the Global Economy another is computers. To much influence by the Globalisation is undesirable as it is un-democratic.
Posted by Canem Malum, Friday, 30 November 2018 1:19:15 PM
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Aiden and Hasbeen appear to be advocating Free Trade/ Industrialist/ Capitalist policies. My position is "Conservative" both Socially and Economically. I agree with many of the business principles but it comes down to degree and balance. Free Traders appear to be more "risk-philic" than the average "risk-phobic" Australian- but then again they are in a better position to get the benefits of the risks. Business is about Risk verses Reward- in macro-economics often the risks can be passed to other parties- sadly this can only be done for so long before there is a correction. The Australian Liberal Party (Business Party) is made up of "Free Traders" and "Conservatives" sadly the Free Traders dominate.
Posted by Canem Malum, Friday, 30 November 2018 1:31:23 PM
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Sorry Aiden appears to be advocating Free Trade policies. Not Hasbeen as I previously indicated.
Posted by Canem Malum, Friday, 30 November 2018 1:33:00 PM
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