I thought it may be interesting to discuss the potential
of who's going to be our next Prime Minister.

My money's on Malcolm Turnbull being re-elected.
However, will he survive the full term or will
he have to be looking over his shoulder at people
like Christopher Pyne, Julie Bishop, or even Mr Dutton
or anyone else?

And if Bill Shorten happens to get in, the same applies
to him. Will he survive his full term or will he need to
worry about someone like Chris Bowen, Tony Burke,
or Tanya Plibersek waiting in the wings?

And what are the chances of One Nation, or the Greens
rocking the boat? When voters are unhappy with the major
parties they are looking to give their vote to someone else.
Will that affect things at the next election?

What are your thoughts? Do you know who you'll be voting
for?

I'll be voting for the local Independent, he hasn't got much of a chance but at least, I won't be voting for a party hack.

My money is on Turnbull to win and if he does, to go the full term.

Dear Is Mise,

Bill Shorten seems to be a rather ruthless factional
player and a former union hack, with an unattrative
record of putting his own political interests ahead of
voters. From what I gather he is not trusted or even
liked by most of his colleagues even though they have
been remarkably disciplined and united in following him.
I don't think many voters believe him when he talks on
matters such as health or education. But whether this
translates into a win for Mr Turnbull I guess we'll have to
wait and see. I'm counting on Mr Turnbull managing to
present a more decisive and stronger image sooner rather
than later.

There is no way I would vote for either of them.

I would not trust Turnbull as far as I could kick him, & Shorten even less, if that is possible. I guess that means I will have to vote informal, or my vote would filter down to one of them. How do you expect your vote not to end up with one of the disgusting clowns Is Mise?

Fortunately with a bit of effort you can exhaust your senate, with out letting any of it go to support either major.

All this would change if Turnbull & Shorten walked under a bus, but looking at the likely replacement I doubt it would make any difference to me.

Dear Hassie,

Isn't there a hard working Independent you could vote
for in your area? It seems like such a shame to pass
up the opportunity to have your say. Or at least try.
I consider it a privilege to be able to vote. As well
as a duty.

My prediction is Turnbull will not even get to the election as the leader, he is so on the nose with voters Dutton or someone will replace him.

Hasbeen,

Locally, I don't expect it to go to preferences, around New England it's pretty sure National Party territory and Barnaby Joyce, despite being currently on the nose, is seen as being an asset to the electorate.

There is no point in voting for independents or minor parties unless you get some perverse satisfaction out of doing so. Take the recent SA election. Three minors put themselves up, and all three bombed out big time. Greens 6%; Australian Conservatives 3.5%; SA Best 13.7%. I admit to putting the AC candidate first because the new Premier is an idiot, and the party put up an unknown Indian woman against the sitting member who was the Attorney General and a good local member who retained the seat for Labor. Most people will continue to vote for one of the two major parties, as they have always done. Protest votes are a waste of time. Australian voters are political naifs who will continue voting as they have always done.

As for who will be the next PM, how the hell would anyone know that.

“........ the Greens have hit a ceiling, their policies, attitudes and hyperbolic rhetoric alienating the vast majority of Australians and, apparently, quite a few of their erstwhile supporters”. (Christopher Carr, 'Quadrant Online’ after the SA election).

The pathetic showing by the Greens in SA, and the result in Batman seem to bear out Carr's opinion. The same could be said for One Nation, whose members seem to think that they would all make better leaders than Hanson, stabbing her in the back at every opportunity. Xenophon is finished; a one trick pony who has worn out his welcome with his childish stunts and with no policies. And, although I support the idea of the Australian Conservatives, they will be scratching to last until the Federal election if 3.5% is all they could manage in Bernadi's home state. Our choice in a clearly between Liberal or Labor, God help us.

It appears that I will be voting for a minor party, most likely PHON, as Greens are out and after the last debacle with Rudd/Gillard, Labor will never get my vote ever. The current Liberal leader should never have been made leader so hes out also. He is further left than Labor and a dill and a republican.

If I were a betting man I would back Shorten, much to my dismay. I do not think much of peoples intellegence.

Which of the two current idiots will be prime minister is irrelevant; which party will be elected is the only thing of importance. The PM is only one person, and he cannot just do as he wishes. It's the the party that counts, and there are only two parties in Australia capable of forming a government.

It is believed that only about 5% of all voters actually change governments, and they are not the people who vote for independents or minor parties. All the minor parties who do get elected can do is run interference for a very small minority of voters. Most people do not like minor parties (that's why the parties are 'minor') or independents. Count up how many of them are in the lower house, and try to make a list of the things that they achieved which are beneficial to Australia and majority Australians.

Independents and minor parties in the Senate are the reason governments can't enact the legislation they were mandated to enact. The idea of the Senate as the 'states house' is a joke - major parties stick with the party line - so we need whatever government that gets elected to have control of it until there is enough support to get rid of it. The Greens, the Xenephons and single interest ratbags in the Senate are an insult to voters who take the governing of Australia seriously.

If you are really pissed off with the Coalition and Labor, as many, many of us are, voting for a minor party or an independent will not keep one or the other out of office. If one party cannot form a majority government, they will be relying on one of more of these weirdos to get legislation through, and the price demanded by the weirdos might just be too high for middle of the road Australians. Instead, make your views known to the individual politician who will be looking for your vote BEFORE THE ELECTIONS.

Voters need a new agenda and a sorely-needed
sense of direction. The Government has not won
a Newspoll since it scraped home with a one seat
majority and currently its base is splintering.
The Government is not doing as well at the polls
as any of us would like and the next election is
due in 2019. The electorate is desperate to see
strong leadership from the man who's always shown
promise but he's never really delivered. It's time
for that to change.

If Mr Turnbull wins the next election - I'm not sure
what would happen next. I don't think that the Liberal
Party would want to replace another PM. But who knows?
Scott Morrison could grab the job. Peter Dutton may be
an outside chance, although he seems to be poorly equipped
to communicate beyond his base. He's not one of the world's
great thinkers. Then of course Anthony Albanese could
challenge Bill Shorten for the leadership. Shorten is not
well liked. What a conundrum is our political scenario.
Making predictions at any time is a risky business, but
especially now. Let's also not forget about the breakaway
movement by Cory Bernardi - is it gathering more membership?
And there's also One Nation, and The Greens - will they
influence anything?

Watch this space.

My husband has pointed out the fact that Mr Turnbull
has always tried to maintain a balance within his
party. That's what he said he would do when he was
first elected leader of the party. He's got the ultra
conservatives on the one hand and the moderates on the
other, and he's had to try to appease both sides - and
as we know that is actually the job (or it should be)
of a democratically elected party leader.

What Mr Turnbull needs to do now is to study public opinion
and to cater to what the majority of voters expect of the
government and put in policies that will deliver the
desired agenda. Sound simple right? But as we know - not
an easy task for anyone, especially a party that needs to
re-unite and stop the infighting if it wants to win the
next election. As history has shown - disunity is a major
turn-off for voters. Labor learned that the hard way.

30 newspolls
times almost up caymal

It'll be Shorten.

Although there is a chance that, as we get closer to the election and the Libs realise they're headed for a massacre, they'll panic and install someone like Bishop in the hopes of saving the furniture. Think Rudd the second time around.

But they'll still lose.

As to voting, a vote for a minor party or independent isn't wasted. It sends messages about where your heart truly lies. But in terms of hard politics, the only real issue is which of Lib/Lab you preference higher. (this applies to all electorates except those where a independent stands a fighting chance).

So even if there's 12 candidates, the only really important decision is who you preference first out of Lib/Lab because all the others will be eliminated as preferences are distributed.

Voting for minors tells the big two where your heart really lays. Last time around I voted for one of the right of centre minor parties and then preferenced Lab over Lib. To me that sends the message that I'm a right of centre voter but am prepared to punish the Libs for abandoning that demographic. Voting, for example, Australian Conservative and then preferencing Libs means nothing and simply confirms, in their mind, what Pyne once said...that you have no other choice.

Installing Bishop would be as bad as keeping Turnbull; she was Turnbull's main ally in the backstabbing of Abbott. She is a truly nasty little piece of work.

To have a chance at re-election, the Liberals have to get rid of Turnbull, Pyne and Bishop; and in the Senate, Birmingham.

There seems to be every chance that the worst leader that Labor has ever had,with his class war and union corruption from the bad old days, will be able to form another socialist government worse than we have ever known. And you will not stop that with your sending messages about what your heart feels, mhaze. The non-Liberal/Labor 'protest' vote is getting smaller as people realise that minor parties and independents are as useful to us as tits on a bull. Do, it; waste your vote, but you will get either a Coalition government or a Labor government. There is nothing else. These nuisance candidates are easily bought, the most recent example being the bribing of Hanson to OK the big business tax reduction for a few apprentice places, which might or might not eventuate.

You would be much better off voting informally, and politely writing why your are doing so. Ah, hang on: no reason to be polite.

It will be interesting to see whether the PM can get
the company tax cuts through the Senate this week.
And how that will or will not affect his standing
with the voters.

Good luck with the voting season. I've lost my resolve for voting for awhile due to some ongoing pre-voting ugliness, and then actual post voting protests and vandalism that occured in the US. The last vote I say through these forums with regard to SSM showed that you guys might be in a simular spot as us that voting might bring out the worst in your country. I hope not, and wish ya all good luck in backing a good leader.

Turnbull has just failed his 29th poll. I don't expect that we will see him stabbed in the back after by he fails the next one, as he stabbed Abbott; there are too many Leftist rats in the ranks now.

Australia has arrived at a really dark place when the only way we can rid ourselves or the worst Liberal leader since Malcolm (could be the name?) Fraser is to vote for the unspeakable Shorten-led Labor party. James Allan has always said that we have to endure Labor again to get the Liberals to sort themselves out. But, can we do that, with the inevitable opening up of our borders to illegal arrivals again and the economic ruin that will follow a Labor victory.

Malcolm Turnbull doesn't feel the pressure to hide his
intellect beneath a facade of blokiness or to manufacture
a false common touch. It's not demanded of him. His party
has given him the job because it knows the population
wants the Prime Ministership restored to a place of genuine
intellectual standing. Mr Turnbull is capable of honest and
open conversations and won't settle for turgid mantras.
He's a leader who could be described as an optimistic moderate
and surely for most people that's a welcome change.

Bill Shorten on the other hand has nothing good to say about
anything. Mr Abbott was a sloganeer, "We have stopped the
boats," "We have stopped the boats," " We have stopped the boats."
This became grating and hard to bear. People stopped listening.
Also his obsession with Britain got a bit much - and the Prince
Philip fiasco - was the final straw. Voters saw that this was
not a leader for the 21st Century. He was taking us backwards.

Malcolm Turnbull was a successful lawyer and businessman - voters
had no doubts about his economic management abilities. He scored
the keys to the lodge. However its now substance that will keep
him there.

However lets not forget that John Howard and Robert Menzies
resurrected their political career and took the Liberals to
victory after being ousted. We shall have to wait and see whether
Mr Turnbull can do the same.

As you know FOXY I'm no student of Oz politics - moreover I loath 'backstabbers' the police force were full of 'em. However I'm now wondering whether Malcolm TURNBULL Is in fact a breath of fresh air, with his intellectual application to his Office. Yet education alone doesn't confer intellectualism neither? Tony ABBOTT is well educated. My problem being I suppose, is (still) how he attained that office, that's my worry? In a word 'trust'?

Dear O Sung Wu,

Just a reminder. It was Turnbull who won the leadership of
the Liberal Party in September 2008 and became Leader of the
then Opposition. It was Tony Abbott (in 2009) who led a
leadership challenge and defeated Turnbull by a single vote.

Then on 14 September 2015 when there was consistently poor
opinion polling for the Government - Turnbull resigned from
the Cabinet and decided to challenge Abbott - thereby
RECLAIMING the leadership of the party by 10 votes.

Turnbull was sworn in as PM the following day.

The rest as the say is history.

Talking about "Trust" Mr Abbott initially promised that he'd
not wreck things for the Government. As we know he hasn't
kept his promise and has done everything in his power to
undermine both his party, the government and certainly Mr
Turnbull. Hopefully this man will get kicked out of his
electorate at the next election. He's the one who can't be
trusted!

tbbn,

"And you will not stop that with your sending messages about what your heart feels, mhaze."

I've never been a big fan of voting for the least worst candidate. That thinking just leads us to getting charismatic incompetence like Rudd and Turnbull.

I agree that we're headed for a deep hole under Shorten. But we're headed there under the current Lib leadership as well, just more slowly. My view is the quicker we get in the hole the quicker we can start to work our way out. But that will only happen under a truly conservative Liberal party, not the Labor-lite party we are currently saddled with.

So give the Libs a thorough thrashing and force them to return to their conservative roots. In the meantime let Shorten and his mates wreak havoc that'll remind all of what Labor really is about. Then by the mid 2020s we can start to rebuild the nation that bequeathed by the Hawke/Howard years.

Reporters are not doing their jobs. Today, on 'The World Today' they allowed the PM to laugh off the reference to his 29th straight poll loss with a wild claim that he had created 420,000 jobs. They didn't ask him what these jobs were or why unemployment figures are not coming down, thanks to all the jobs he claims to have created. There is something seriously wrong with a man who cannot see that he would be winning polls, not losing them hand over fist, if he was as good as he thinks he is.

Clear for all to see ttbn. The only ones that the abc hold real accountability to are those they hate. That is why Turnbull does not get the scrutiny from their abc.

Dear runner,

Perhaps you should actually watch the ABC and see for yourself
that Mr Turnbull gets a great deal of scrutiny especially on programs
like - "The Insiders," "Q and A," "Media Watch," "Parliament
Question Time," "The Drum," "7.30 Report," "Lateline," to name just
a few.

IS anyone worthy of the Prime Ministership?

Malcolm "tax cuts for the rich" Turnbull may not make it to the next election because he is approaching the dreaded 30 losing polls number that he used to out Tony "I'm a religious nutter" Abbott.

Surely if they have a leadership spill the Liberals won't give Peter "island camps for kids" Dutton to the top job... That would be laughable!

On the other side of the sensible people line...the middle unbiased line in political thinking or in layman's terms "the correct line,"we have Billy "Trust me if you dare" Shorten who I suspect will win.

The big problem is the Kim Beazley affect.

When big Kim was leader the Labor party won the polls continually but Aussies preferred Johnny "let me take us to war with lies" Howard over Big Kim.

Elections are a bit like Christmas...We usually get a turkey!

Labor should win.

The tax cuts to the rich issue,whilst ignoring struggling families doing it tough, should result in hatred for the Libs... But alas right wingers only look after their own people.

REMEMBER PEOPLE THE SINGLE POLLIES PENSION IS AT LEAST $118,125 (75% of their salary) paid by us and a single person pension for us is around $21,500. Bronny "Free helicopters for all" Bishop gets around $255,000.

$118,000 vs $21,500

The hypocritical right winger pollies hate socialism until they get plenty of something from it...then it is just fine and dandy!

The left winger Pollies are pro a bit of socialism for them also.

http://twitter.com/endentitlement

The truth is society needs to be capitalist in nature with strong underlying socialist systems to assist people who need that assistance in tough times.

I doubt living on $118,000 is a tough time but maybe for pollies it is with all their other lurks and perks...lmao

We need to cut expenses because we are living beyond our means the pollies crow - give the pollies what the workers get $21,500

Hey this budget cutting stuff isn't all that hard now is it...lmao

Yep I am sure we will get a turkey!

Sorry... I ran out of characters...lol

One of the most crucial series of events during this past year was the ineligibility of so many members of parliament to have accepted benefits paid by the tax payers when they weren't entitled due to citizenship issues...

There was a whole thread on it here....

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=7990&page=0

Our much loved Barnaby double standards Joyce said that people who got benefits they were not entitled have to pay it back and I agree with that position.

Suddenly Barnaby and many other pollies were in the same exact position receiving entitlements that they were not entitled to and the rules & position changed immediately.

We can't forget these things!

An unemployed person or pensioner gets a few bucks too much and the wrath of Centrelink and Barnaby comes upon them but when a politician is in exactly the same position, receiving moneys that they weren't entitled to, no wrath just love and kisses and a "she'll be right mate" from the finance department and other pollies.

Every Centrelink recipient should have this burnt into their memory banks.

When Turnbull got caught out he had to pay moneys back forover claiming expenses wrongly

https://tinyurl.com/ybj5c77q

How the multi millionaire leader of the country with staff coming out his wazoo gets his expenses wrong one can only guess, but he sort of did the right thing after getting caught.

I thought claiming something falsely in writing was fraud but alas not in Politics and not with Pollies.

Elections are the only time that we get to hold politicians accountable because they won't hold themselves accountable.

Remember the expenses scandal - Of course you don't!

https://tinyurl.com/yajhhs3p

Double standards for all - get your double standards here at the Australian Parliament! We specialise in them!

Vote 1 a flock of turkeys... You'll get them anyway...lmao

Dear OP2,

You most certainly summed it up in a nutshell.

Very entertaining or perhaps instead of laughing,
we should all be crying?

Well foremost it wont really matter because short of some serious ass kicking, we will never recover from where we are and, the have shown voters wont stand for that.

However, the only one I see with balls ATM is Dutton. Julie WASTEFUL Bishop has done her dash, Turnbul is beyond repair and as for Shorten, well there's a laugh.

So short answer is, it doesn't really matter. Perhaps the time has come for a new candidate, None of the above.

rechtub,

"... because short of some serious ass kicking,"

Why pick on the poor donkeys?

I may live to regret it - but I really can't currently see any
other option than Malcolm Turnbull.

Still I guess anything can happen prior to 2019.

I really don't like Shorten!

Foxy...TY for your kind words...We should be crying...

Our system is so corrupt that we can't trust anyone or anything...

Watch this video if you have the time regarding the tax cuts to the rich in the USA. Exactly the same will happen here with no real benefit to the lower and middle class.

Now if they lowered the taxes to the low income and families the money would IMMEDIATELY benefit the economy because it always flows back up through the economy to their rich mates because they own all the businesses where the money ends up... It's simple stuff!

The only way to change the system is to ban all political donations and make the parties only use the moneys earnt through our system and supplied by us taxpayers to fund their advertising.

The current rate from 1 January 2018 to 30 June 2018 is 270.479 cents per eligible vote.

To get this you have to get at least 4% formal first preference votes.
This should be changed to 0% but the moneys must be held in a trust account and ONLY used on advertising in the next election or repaid to the Electoral commission, to better accommodate small parties and independents.

What happens in the USA and here is simply WRONG!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R2zpJuCKCWo

There is a real bonus in only allowing the parties to use the allotted funding...

Less political advertising and lies completely.

No individual handout sheets at polling boths.. Each booth would have your choices pinned to the wall behind glass or plastic...

No more harassment when entering polling booths.

Less buying of votes by people with money.

We can't lose except we still would get a turkey...lmao

Dear OP2,

I'm more optimistic about our political system.

Take a look at the recent Batman By-Election. That could
be a template for how to hold inner-city seats.
Pre-select a strong progressive candidate and focus on
local issues like schools, health, and public transport.
Run a smart campaign.

Curb corporate power by new laws abolishing the
primacy of the profit motive by boards of directors.
Ordinary citizens need a decent livelihood.

I don't
think that Mr Turnbull's company tax cuts are going to be held
in high esteem by most voters. And they could have bad
results for him and the party. More time, effort, and
concentration is needed - with more appropriate
policies put into place. Also disunity is death - and that
needs to be fixed within the party.

Optimism where pollies are concerned is a very brave option...I hope you are correct :)

You will note that the right always attacks the Unions for donating to Labor. What would be the outcome if only businesses and private people were allowed to donate?

Continual Government for the right...It is that simple.

The ONLY solution is to ban all political donations! The American buying of votes system is already well entrenched here I'm afraid.

And who can change the system?

Only pollies... so it will never change!

I am not a political animal because I really hate them all. I sit in the middle because I want to remain rational and not tainted by right or left wing biases.

Most people who are political don't even check the facts these days... They have better tools available to research issues better but still usually debate along party lines.

Recently whilst on a cruise I met some lovely USAian people who were Hillary voters. After allowing them to waffle on against Trump and for Hillary I threw a few spanners into the works regarding Clinton and the Clintons.

Boy did they suddenly become more moderate in their views when I knew much more than they had assumed...lmao

I can't stand the Clintons, or Trump, or the Bushes etc. so we broadened the discussion to cover many things American.

They travel the world and couldn't believe we knew so much about USAian politics.

We really had so much more fun once I silenced the political crap and had lots of laughs.

Politics is corrupt all over the world but I wish you well with your optimism.

I enjoy reading your posts...

Dear OP2,

We lived and worked in the United States for close to
ten years. I understand your experience with Americans.
I guess, as with many people, you have to be careful
discussing politics - but especially with Americans.
I mean, they have little kids at kinder having to take
the "Pledge of Allegiance" first thing in the morning
before class.

My views aren't set in concrete. That's one of the reasons
I keep coming back to this forum. I do enjoy reading
the various posts. There's such a wide variety of opinions
here - many of whom are challenging, which is not a bad thing.
They have often made me re-think things or at least view
things from a different perspective. Keeps my mind active,
at least, that's what I rationalise.

Now Foxy can you ever imagine that I would stay away from Religion and Poiltics in real life?...lol

I only have a short time on the planet and I have to rattle as many cages as I can...

I used to have a minister from a Church, who lived up the road try to convert me a couple of times a month. Boy did he get a hiding every time he rang the doorbell.

My best line to him was "I understand why idiot men believe this Bible rubbish but with all the oppression how can your wife believe it" - Not a very subtle line but he doesn't visit any more...lmao

I only respond to people when they come across as mad right or mad left in real life because they think they know stuff but when tested with my usual bluntness they fall apart and back off quickly...lol

I'm lucky I am not very hittable because Of my size and propensity to bleed on them easily...lol

AS I said I am middle in politics BUT I actually have lived a complex and interesting life that has taught me many things. Polite arguing with idiots isn't one of them...lol

I want change for the better always... Pollies because of their allegiances generally want change for the worst. Look at how weak they were in the SSM debate. Look at how they took us to war based on lies in Iraq. Look at the pathetic answers given by Pollies in the various enquiries.

What are the things they say you should never talk about in company? Oh that's right Money, Religion, Politics, Relationships & sex.

I'm pretty good on the topic of money also and our friends think I am a scream when I talk about sex.

They enjoy listening to someone who has absolutely no idea...lmao

Maybe I was wrong about getting a turkey as the next PM... I suspect we might get a goose and his gaggle...lol

'Who is going to be Australia's next Prime Minister?'

Right now I'd vote for the Dingo

Dear OP2,

I was raised to dream big. I believe in humanity and I like
to remind people to dream without limits.

Many people are low-information voters, who make decisions based on first impressions. Just as Hillary Clinton was criticized for lacking warmth, I find Bill Shorten almost robotic. He sounds like he is giving a speech every time he opens his mouth. I am sure this will count against him. I don't know much about all of the alternatives, but Penny Wong generally seems warm, intelligent and relateable.

Dear benk,

I also like Penny Wong. However I'm not sure that her party
would select another woman for the top job, and that includes
Tanya Plibersek. Still I guess we can never know what goes
on in the minds of politicians. And perhaps times will change
in this country for women in positions of power. How about
Julie Bishop?

It looks like this discussion has now run its course.
I'd like to Thank everyone for their contributions
and wish you all a Very Happy Easter!
Enjoy Your Day!

All The Best.

None of those women have the morals, principles, ability to make good policies or Australia's best interests at heart to be trusted or even expected to do a good job.

That said, I'm not sure there are any male candidates that fit those requirements either.

Vote 1 None of the above

Happy Easter everyone