On Monday 27th March, Following a nearly 5 fold tax increase on brown coal by Labor, the Hazelwood station starts its shutdown process and by the 31st roughly 1000 employees, contractors and suppliers will be out of work, and Victoria will lose 25% of its generation capacity (roughly equivalent to SA's entire average consumption).

To put this in perspective, if the power spike Last month occurred today (even with SA's new batteries) the odds are that SA would have had a near complete black out and VIC and NSW would have had partial blackouts.

And the drastic drop in reliability is not the worst of it as power prices are set to increase by up to 10%, and major industries will begin to close. With the intermittent nature of renewables making it difficult to match generation to load, and difficult to operate a base load plant, it looks as though Labor is sleep walking us back to the stone age. By the time the electorate wakes up and realises that the labor greens promises were fantasies, it will take years to fix the mess.

SM,

Like an old car - Hazelwood ( -built in the 1960s)
is beyond its use by date.
It is dangerous. Ask the people in Morwell.

The miracle is more that its been able to pump out cheap
and dirty baseload power for a decade longer than anyone
expected.

http://www.abc.net.au/2017-03-24/hazelwood-latrobe-valley-not-the-first-or-the-last-to-close/8380760

cont'd ...

Apologies for mistyping. Here's the link again:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-24/hazelwood-latrobe-valley-not-the-first-or-the-last-to-close/8380760

Foxy,

I spent a some of time in Morwell, and few days at Hazelwood whilst doing a thesis on maintenance management, and the ABC has once again got the wrong end of the stick.

The boilers and turbines while old are perfectly maintainable. The plant itself has an excellent safety record, and I believe that "safety" issue relates to the mine fire of last year, and the $400m price tag combined with Labor tripling coal royalties for the plant and mine upgrades, combined with Labor tripling coal royalties, have made the continued production uneconomic.

What Gregg Borschmann forgets is that as renewables require hefty subsidies, they will never be as cheap as the brown coal generators, and that when the wind isn't blowing at night, Victorians may well be reading by candle light.

Dear Shadow Minister,

These foreign companies have been getting away with stitching up Victorians for too long. The tax rise per gigajoule of energy will rise from 7.6 cents to 22.8 cents bringing the state into line with NSW, WA and QLD which all charge around 23 cents.

Many other states have been benefiting from cheap coal sourced power from Victoria. Should we be expected to subsidise them at the expense of our own budget?

SR,

You do realise that lower taxes are not a subsidy? Or that black coal in NSW or QSL generates nearly 3x the amount of power per GJ, due to the wetness of the brown coal? Tripling the tax is rightly called gouging.

Secondly, if you were consistent, you would also oppose the very heavy subsidies on renewables that customers have to pay for.

The net result Victorians will suffer higher electricity prices, 1000 odd people will be unemployed, the Vic state gov will now get $0 from Hazelwood in tax, and the next hot day with no wind will now lead to a blackout in SA and Victoria.

SM,

You should read the 2014 Report on the Hazelwood Mine
Fire. It had a disastrous effect on people and the
surrounding area. Also Morwell has a higher incidence
of cardiovascular and respiratory disease and the
percentage of people who need assistance due to a
disability is twice the rate of the rest of Victoria.
Do your research on the issues regarding Hazelwood.

Dear Shadow minister,

You wrote;

“black coal in NSW or QSL generates nearly 3x the amount of power per GJ, due to the wetness of the brown coal? Tripling the tax is rightly called gouging.”

You never have been that good at figures have you my friend.

Okay, GJ or gigajoules are a measure of energy. One can not get three times the amount of power out of a GJ of energy, one can only get a GJ. I can explain further if you continue to be confused by this.

It is the wetness which reduces the amount of energy that can be realised from Victorian brown coal. Which is why the royalty is calculated per GJ not per tonne of coal. Would you really rather it be per tonne?

Bringing the royalty per GJ to parity with the other states is perfectly acceptable unless you would rather it go into the pockets of the multinational company who own our highly profitable coal power plants rather than toward ordinary Victorians.

Why do you continue to be so enthralled with these multinational companies at the expense of ordinary Australians?

SR,

I wondered whether you would be dim enough to make that mistake.

The reason that Brown coal emits 2-3 times as much CO2 as black coal is that brown coal is saturated with water (roughly 50%) of which means that 4-5 tonnes of brown coal needs to be burnt to burn off the water before steam and power can be generated which is why 2-3x as many GJ of latent energy is used to produce the same power (thus the 2-3x as much emissions) that a black coal plant generates.

If these multinational owned coal plants were as wildly profitable as you claim, they wouldn't be closing down.

Foxy,

The emissions were from the mine, not the generation plant. Given that the brown coal has the habit of spontaneously combusting, how is the plant closure going to improve matters.

Secondly as most country towns typically have higher levels of heart disease and disability (for a variety of reasons) this is a furphy.

Dear Shadow minister,

You wrote;

“The reason that Brown coal emits 2-3 times as much CO2 as black coal is that brown coal is saturated with water (roughly 50%) of which means that 4-5 tonnes of brown coal needs to be burnt to burn off the water before steam and power can be generated which is why 2-3x as many GJ of latent energy is used to produce the same power (thus the 2-3x as much emissions) that a black coal plant generates.”

Oh don't be so slippery. Your comment was made in conjunction with the tax per GJ of energy produced not with latent energy.

And anyway where does this 'latent energy' come from? It is not GJs being added but rather energy foregone because it is consumed by the process.

Unless you are making the case the tax will be on the forgone energy as well which is ludicrous.

As to profitability;

“AGL Energy has reaped the financial rewards of diverting its focus from green energy investments after the massive Loy Yang A brown coal generator it bought last year underwrote a large increase in earnings in the last six months. The 2,210MW Loy Yang plant – which produces 30 per cent of Victoria’s electricity, and which is the largest single emitter of carbon emissions in the country, although also one of the lowest cost facilities – enabled AGL Energy to treble earnings from its wholesale markets division in the half to $518 million, and lift underlying earnings by more than 20 per cent”
http://reneweconomy.com.au/brown-coal-power-underwrites-agls-clean-profit-boost-17793/

Plants are closing because they are past their use by dates, especially after years of skimping on routine maintenance by their private sector owners.

SM,

The facts speak for themselves.

The miracle is more that Hazelwood has been able to
pump out cheap and dirty baseload power for a
decade longer than anyone expected. However like an
old car Hazelwood is beyond its use by date.
It is dangerous. Also the facts remain that there is a
higher incidence of cardiovascular and respiratory disease
in that particular area and the percentage of people
who need assistance due to a disability is TWICE the rate
of the rest of Victoria.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-24/hazelwood-latrobe-valley-not-the-first-or-the-last-to-close/8380760

SR,

Let me use small words. Mining royalties apply to the properties of the product mined, fuel is measured in GJs, electricity in MWhrs.

If you managed to extract the water from the brown coal before burning it, it would have the same energy content per ton as black coal.

Roughly 2t brown coal - 1t water = 1t black coal equivalent.
So roughly at the same GJ tax rate, 2t brown coal would be taxed at the same rate as 1t black coal.

However, as the extraction process is not feasible the brown coal goes into the boiler with all the water. Where 1t black coal generates roughly 8t steam, to generate 8t of steam from brown coal you would need between 4-6tons.

To summarise, for the same energy input the brown coal plants put out less than half the electricity, but the same CO2.

None of this addresses the elephant in the room that Vic is losing 1/4 of its power generation today, and that avoiding power outages is no longer guaranteed.

Hazelwood was privatised by Kennett in 1996 in the expectation that is was expected to be shut down in 2005.

The new owners indeed did invest money in maintenance and upgrades but it was the Bracks Government that realigned Hazelwood's mining licence and granted Environmental Effects Statement approvals to move a river and a road to grant them access to more coal than was previously agreed, so it was Labor's fault that helped it keep working 10 years past it's expected retirement date.

The EES also invoked a total C02 cap of 445 million tons for Hazelwood's lifetimeand the French company that now owns it knew about these restrictions.

If there's an energy problem it's due to the short-sightedness of all governments at all levels to plan effectively and see beyond the window of the next election.

The entire renewable project is founded on BS.

Nothing is renewable!

Just because folk think it's renewable, the energy can be, with impunity, splurged?

It is a fad and a media-oid fiction, from folk who have no idea of the energy world, they were born into.
Arty, farty, 'ring roadside assistance folk'.
Let them pay for the folly.
Why bother with cheaper and better ways?
Yup, burn the mature forest, wood pellets, imported from the US to UK furnaces, to appease folk, who want to think they are, warm, fuzzy and, 'earth safe'.
Nope, let the BS Greenies have their day and learn the hard, hard way, that, their convenient and green lifestyles, are neither green nor convenient, and VERY expensive.
Stop arguing, and let reality speak, through the experiences it dishes out. That is truth.

Get out your candles, and get ready to eat them.

Foxy,

Anyone with even the simplest grasp of statistics knows that correlation is not proof in any way without causation. I lived in Tumut for several years where the statistics on disease and disability far outstripped the national average, and possibly even Morwell, but has crystal clear air and water. On closer investigation the reason was simple. The cost of living in Tumut was a fraction of Sydney or Melbourne. As the disability allowances were not town dependent, a person on disability could live far more comfortably in Tumut. Having also spent time in Morwell, the same low cost of living applies there, and the discount trains ($12 one way) I took there from Melbourne were stocked with pensioners and the disabled.

The link you provided was written by Gregg Borschmann who is technically incompetent and clueless with respect to the concept of industrial maintenance, and repeating this inanity makes it no more valid.

The ironic part of all of this is that while we shut Hazelwood, Japan is building multiple coal fired power stations which will be burning our coal.

Apparently if it's not burned here it's ok. Go figure, we loose a 1000+ jobs so our greenies can feel all warm and fuzzy, while our coal still gets burned.

Have we really become that stupid?

Only some of us Butch.

SM,

The company is convinced the plant is no longer viable
with environmental concerns also a factor. Hazelwood is
old and out of date and has not been maintained.
ENGIE has estimated it would cost $400 million to get
it up to safety standards. The plant's operations faced
scrutiny over a coal mine fire that burned for more than
a month in 2014 blanketing Morwell in smoke. An inquiry
found it was pollution from the fire that had contributed to
deaths in the area. Nine coal power stations have closed
in the last five years in Australia. That should tells
us a great deal.

http://www.environmentvictoria.org.au/hazelwood-faqs/

Foxy. "Nine coal power stations have closed
in the last five years in Australia. That should tells
us a great deal".

Yes Foxy it does tell us a great deal. It tells us that Labor governments will do the most destructive things, like wasting billions on hugely expensive wind power, to buy green preferences.

This is not only disgusting, but has resulted in my first ever over $1000 for a quarter electricity bill. $1214 actually. That is up 240% in just a couple of years.

Thanks ratbag greens, & lefty vote buyers.

Dear Hassie,

I don't know who you're with but we're quite happy with
our provider. Our bills are very reasonable. But then
of course we also have solar panels.

Foxy,

It is complete rubbish that Hazelwood has not been maintained. I have been through their maintenance program in detail, and their plant availability was > 90% which compared to the period of state ownership when availability was 70-80% is vastly superior.

The safety upgrades required were for the existing plant to be modified to meet safety standards for which they were never designed, which for a plant which would cost about $10bn to build today. The plant was profitable, but in the face of arbitrary new design standards and a tripling of the fuel tax, the closure of the plant was inevitable especially since the surge in electricity prices would more than compensate Engie's other generation plants.

As for the deaths to which the Morwell fire "contributed" these patients were in the last stages of respiratory collapse, their deaths were inevitable, and no direct link has been established.

SM,

It appears that Environment Victoria in the
link I cited earlier gives a different story
to your spin.

Remember there is a fire burning underground for the past thirty years or more in the brown coal belt.
They know it's there because the ground continually subsides.
I have no trouble with power also I put solar panels on in 2008.

I remember when people were getting all worked up about China commissioning new coal-fired power stations "every 3 minutes".

Maybe they brought several on-line within the same hour or so but the media deliberately didn't make that clear, otherwise there must be tens-of-thousands of them by now!

Meanwhile they've scrapped plans for 104 new plants because of over-capacity so Australian coal miners are going all-out to promote local coal use.

The defence of Hazelwood (along with deliberately promoting fear over potential shortages and blackouts) is part of a public softening-up strategy by the Federal Government to allow the construction of new domestic coal-fired plants.

Meanwhile the Snowy Mountains 2 announcement seems to have fallen flat and I suspect there will be great public resistance to a return to coal.

Hasbeen,

When it comes to rising electricity costs -

Which party classified electricity as "non-essential" and imposed a GST on it?

Which party told electricity suppliers they should not only charge consumers for the cost of upgrading their networks instead of internally funding it plus add an additional 10% on top? (This is how they planned to build up the network for future sale - make the consumer pay).

Which party has been promoting the ongoing privatisation of all electricity generation and opened up the market to phony resellers who take an extra premium on top of their costs? Gas companies selling electricity - electricity companies selling gas, paper-shuffling money-takers treating energy supply like mobile phone contracts.

Which party actively promoted the installation of roof-top solar cells only to later renege on the price paid by suppliers?

Which party has always treated important public utilities as something to be exploited for financial gain?

Which party not only strongly resisted the initial construction of the Snowy Scheme but actually boycotted it's opening - only to later claim it as a national icon?

Foxy,

What a shocker, a blog run by environmental activists containing unchecked statements and fact free assertions doesn't agree with me.

The proof of the efficacy of the maintenance is plant availability statistics, and given that the plant availability and safety record at Hazelwood met world benchmarks, I need a little more than the word of activists who have not done a single minute of plant maintenance in their lives.

SM,

Hazelwood is closing.

Despite your rhetoric.

Move on.

Foxy,

I have never claimed that Hazelwood wouldn't close, or that the federal government should try and rescue it. What I did highlight was:

The actions of the Victorian labor government that pushed it to close, The consequences on electricity prices,
The consequences on system reliability,
The left whinge lie about the maintenance of the plant.

SA has experienced the consequences of labor's ideologically based incompetence and I guess Victoria will too. There is nothing like a black out before elections.

SM,

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coal-station-closure-inevitable-start-planning-labor-and-greens-20161128-gsz8k9.html

Looks Like JW was lying to us. For $25m he could have kept Alinta coal fired power station available, providing more back up than his $550m admission of guilt

"Energy Minister Josh Frydenberg has labelled Jay Weatherill the “premier with no clothes” after it emerged the South Australian government knocked back a $25 million offer to keep the Northern coal-fired power station open.

Details of the previously secret offer from Alinta Energy to keep South Australia’s last coal-fired power station operational in return for just $25 million from the Weatherill government have today been revealed, a fortnight after the Premier flatly denied it and accused The Australian of promoting false information.

Hitting out at the SA Labor leader for preventing the release of the letter outlining the rescue bid, Mr Frydenberg said the deal would have provided more energy security than the $550m energy plan the state has since unveiled.

“Just five weeks ago announcing his $550m sorry note to the South Australian people, he (Weatherill) was asked five times whether it would be cheaper to keep open the Port Augusta coal-fired power plant, he said no. Today we find out that the answer is yes — twenty-two times cheaper than his $550m admission of failure,” Mr Frydenberg said.

“Jay Weatherill has tried to prevent the release of this letter … now the letter has come to light and it has exposed Jay Weatherill and his government for the mistakes they have made and for the trouble they have put their state in."

And where would SA get the coal from. Leigh creek was doomed 10 years ago.

Foxy,

Another uncritical review of a labor green environmental report, with all the technical know how of year 6 science class.

Doog,

The power station had sufficient coal for nearly a decade.

SM,

A Senate inquiry into the retirement of coal plants
heard that many energy companies, unions,
community and environment groups agreed that the
closures of Australian coal-fired power stations were
inevitable and they want the federal government to
introduce policies to help manage the shift. There are
also businesses making the case including AGL.

Consistently blaming Labor and the Greens is such
a tired tactic. Labor is not the
problem here nor the Greens. Both are asking for planning
and policies for the future of this country.
If you can't see that then you have some serious problems.

Keith creek was depleted years ago and they have been exploiting remote pockets for years. With a dwindling workforce because of uncertainty they could not continue any more. Trucking back to the rail line also killed any further efforts to whip a dead horse.

Foxy,

In this case the blame is squarely on labor and the greens.

All power plants will close eventually that is an oxymoron. And we already have a body with the appropriate know how to supervise the generation and networks, it is called the AEMO. However, as the power infrastructure within the states are entirely the responsibility of the states, the AEMO does the calculations and makes sound recommendations (which in the case of SA was ignored).

There is no need for another government organisation unless the nations networks are all nationalised.

The calls by the Labor Green senate are effectively trying to deflect blame from the incompetent state governments. The

SM,

We need to take politics out of energy security.
Why are we so lacking in vision in Australia?
We could have been well on our way to a clean
energy future instead we are stuck with visionless
politicians.

Foxy

That's exactly the problem, the engineers at the AEMO give solid advice and the douche bag visionless labor politicians ignore it.

That's how you cock up a network.

SM,

You would achieve much more if you somehow managed
to keep politics out of our energy security.
Both sides of politics have a lot to answer.
Blaming just the one side consistently does you
no credit. It actually discourages further
communication.

Dear Shadow Minister,

You wrote;

“That's exactly the problem, the engineers at the AEMO give solid advice and the douche bag visionless labor politicians ignore it.”

Well let's see what douche bag visionless OLO posters do with solid AEMO advice.

The government did seek the “advice of the independent Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), which manages the National Electricity Market, on how this closure (of Hazelwood) will affect the secure supply of electricity.”

AEMO “advised the electricity market will continue to operate reliably after the closure of Hazelwood.”

Your response?

Foxy,

Unfortunately, the problem is precisely that the networks and generation in some states has been managed according to ideology and not engineering, and in SA's case directly contrary to the advice of the AEMO engineers, with predictable consequences, with damage to the SA economy far exceeding the cost of the new interconnector, gas generator and batteries combined.

That Vic is now doing the same now puts the whole network in jeopardy, and lo and behold, the offenders are always labor.

SR,

If certain douche bag posters read the statement properly they would know the difference between reliable day to day operation of the electricity market, and total network "reliability" in extreme conditions, which the AEMO warned of with respect to Hazelwood.

Perhaps AEMO was privey to

http://www.bing.com/news/search?q=Billion+Battery&qpvt=billion+battery&FORM=EWRE

Sure hope it helps, but it's another step towards the black-hole that is renewables.

From the ABC

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-31/victorians-warned-to-brace-for-blackout-risk-as-hazelwood-closes/8402446

"The shutdown of Hazelwood coal-fired power station in Victoria removed 1,600 megawatts of power from the system, or more than 20 per cent of the state's energy supply.

Without Hazelwood, the national grid has become more vulnerable and the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) said on hot days with high demand there would be a shortfall of between 200 and 500 megawatts."

So even the most left leaning news organisation recognises that there will be problems.

SM,

From the ABC:

http://www.abc.net.au/2017-03-30/hazelwood-power-plant-shutdown-explained/8379756

Taken from the link:

"After 50 years of supplying Victoria with cheap electricity,
the plant's owners - ENGIE announced late last year that
the site was no longer economically viable..."

"Documents released to the ABC revealed the scale of
improvements that would be needed to bring the plant up to
scratch."

"With WorkSafe Victoria ordering ENGIE to repair five out of
the eight boilers to meet work health and safety standards."

"ENGIE said it would cost at least $743 million to
rehabilitate the site. That includes $439 million for the mine
and $304 million for the power station site."

Read the given website for more information.

cont'd ...

oops - I left out news:

Here's the site again:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-03-30/hazelwood-power-plant-shutdown-explained/8379756