Dear ttbn,

Voting behaviour is complex some trends are clear
and confronting for the major parties.
Weaker voter attachment to them makes electoral
contests increasingly volatile. As I stated earlier.
Interesting times ahead.

ttbn, I predict an election before the end of the year.

Foxy; I have always been in favor of The Greens, both supporting Coalition candidates, where they offer a better choice than Labor, and supporting Government legislation where it is compatible with Greens philosophy, policy or values.

Shadow, I don't know how much politicking you have done in the past. I have been scrutinizing for political parties for many years. Rule number one, is not to watch the votes going into your pile, but to watch the other candidates votes, looking for votes to challenge. Then there is minor party and independents preferences. Surprisingly there is always a drift of preferences, sometimes just a couple of percent, but in a very close contest that drift of preferences can be enough to deliver an unexpected victory your way. Third party candidates do you no favors, even if they are "friendlies".

In the case of The Greens, Labor and Liberal. If the Liberals stand a "good" candidate, and there are good and bad candidates from all parties, and by good I mean a vote winner for various reasons. If that candidate is perceived as a rather small "l" progressive Liberal. The Labor vote will decline because of the friendly Green candidate standing. However anything up to 20% of Green preferences will flow to the Liberal.

The Coalition had a very serious problem in some country seats where there were three cornered contests Liberal and National on one side, Labor on the other. In many cases the conservative vote was split, giving final victory to Labor. where if it had been a head to head contest, the conservative would have won.

In politics it is a good idea to watch not only your enemies, but your friends as well.

Paul,

I'll hold you to that.

What I have found particularly amusing reading through media rantings is the opinions that Bernardi should have stayed in the Liberal Party; that he would have had more influence that way. Really? The Liberal Party didn't take a blind bit of notice of him during all the years he was in the Liberal Party; but, suddenly, he would have more influence by staying in the tent?

Paul,

We will have to disagree.

Considering that the majority of Nationals preferences will go to the Libs and the majority of the libs preferences will go to the Nationals, I find your scenario unlikely to be attributed to the split.