I just love this explanation I took out of an article I just found on the web:

'Killing a Chicken to Scare the Monkeys

China’s main frontline opponents in the South China Sea are Vietnam and the Philippines. Analysts in both countries strongly fear that Beijing will seek to make an example of at least one of them, following the venerable Chinese adage that one kills a chicken to scare the monkeys. The question would seem to be which neighbor will serve as the sacrificial chicken; which country China will bully and humiliate as an object lesson to other neighbors that resistance is futile and decisive help from the Americans is unlikely to come.'

Hi Mr Opinion,

Yes, you're probably right, and it will probably be Vietnam:

* it's closer than the Philippines;

* there are active disputes between China and Vietnam over the Paracels, which are sort of midway between Vietnam and China's Hainan province - China has already sunk a couple of Vietnamese ships in that region, so a hot war wouldn't be difficult to imagine;

* on the usual imperialist principle that you try to swallow the nearest 'enemy' first, then move on to 'enemies' further away and harder to conquer, Vietnamese is right there.

The Chinese, being as arrogant as any other run-of-the-mill imperialist power, will probably try to engineer a pretext for the invasion of Vietnam, certainly in the next five years, before its clout starts to wane. Not all of it, just the north coast.

But the Vietnamese have fought wars with China before, and kicked their arses before too. The stories of the Trung Sisters in the eleventh century, the defeat on the Hong River of the Mongols in 1290 or so, and the more recent defeat of the Chinese in 1979, are very fresh, I'm sure, in Vietnamese minds.

Just a note: China has as much right to sail through that area as any other power, but no more than that. It has no right to claim any of it, to build on any shoals, or otherwise breach international law.

After all, every half-baked power in the world could 'claim' that some shoal or other was part of its beloved territory and build on it. There are shoals just off the north coast of New Zealand which were administered from Sydney as part of New South Wales, up until 1840. There are probably shoals just off the coast of China which were, at some time, administered by Japan or Korea or even Vietnam. What's sauce for the goose ......

Joe

Hi Loudmouth,

I concur with your assessment.

China is not interested in just having sole navigation rights in the South China Sea. What it wants most is the oil. If China is going to be a major industrial power then it needs to have an almost inexhaustible supply of oil. And there's a lot of it in the South China Sea. Problem is that these undersea oil fields are just off the coasts of Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia. So what is China doing about it? Simple, just take it away from them. They who control the oil will control the future.

Hi folks,

Here's something posted about three hours ago:

http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/chinese-coast-guard-intervenes-as-indonesia-arrests-illegal-fishermen/news-story/c0c3ba4ff2f897e27cfd09ce44dedd58

Hi folks, here's another little piece you might want to ponder over:

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/us-casts-wary-eye-on-australian-port-leased-by-chinese/ar-BBqI3ad?li=AAgfIYZ&ocid=mailsignout

Here it is folks, evidence that China really does own the South China Sea:

http://www.news.com.au/world/beijing-details-historic-claim-to-south-china-sea/news-story/8aab3eedb376ced913201871b9e84893

Also, I think the Chinese president told the Australian parliament that China also had a claim over the northern part of Australia due to visits by early Chinese navigators prior to the arrival of European explorers. First the South China Sea, then the northern part of Australia. makes sense after they just purchased Port Darwin.