How many of you have seen this:

http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/us-yes-china-we-did-send-a-small-armada-to-the-south-china-sea/ar-BBqmdTM?li=AAgfYrC&ocid=mailsignout

Big question is: Who will Australia support if and when this dispute escalates into war, China or the US?

What we have here is two equally belligerent nations in China and the US. China is clearly militarizing these disputed islands. The US like a bully boy is doing its best to escalate tensions in the region. A region somewhat remote from the United States, but when has that stopped them.
Australia like a subservient lap dog will side with the US. Nothing new in that. if it comes to all out war as Mr Opinion suggests it could, China may nuk Brisbane, and the US may then nuk Hanoi, or vise versa, no matter peace can then be restored will little damage done.

Hi Paul,

Why would the US nuke Hanoi ? One major point that you overlook is that the small countries in the region are happy for the UDS to be there to protect their interests - Vietnam and the Philippines are negotiating the use of bases by the Yanks.

It's international waterways that we're talking about: nobody's national territory, so the Yanks have as much right to send their ships there as anybody else - with the warm support of the Vietnamese and Philippines, and perhaps Taiwan, Malaysia and Indonesia as well.

So who's the bully ?

Joe

Did anyone catch Niall Ferguson's three part TV documentary on China in which he warned that a major protracted economic downturn in China's economy (like what is happening now) could create nationalistic tensions amongst the Chinese pushing the Communist Party into war against its traditional belligerents? I think Ferguson is correct in his assessment. But I am biased in that I'm a great fan of Ferguson's world history perspective.

I think the first country to fall victim in such a war would be Taiwan. After all the Chinese still maintain that Taiwan is not an independent nation and belongs to the Chinese nation-state. Maybe that's why China's ally North Korea has nuclear capability, in order to strike South Korea and Japan and thus block a northerly advance by the US into China. And if Taiwan is the intended victim that might make sense of why China is building a defensive wall of man made military islands in the seas south of Taiwan.

Sorry about that Joe, President Donald has apologized about that slight indiscretion, seems a rough second lieutenant in the US Airforce took it upon himself to nuk Hanoi by mistake the intended target was Pyongyang. President Donald hopes that the nuking of Hanoi will not have any long term effects on the friendly relations the US and Vietnam have enjoyed since the early 1950's. Besides President Donald has committed $50 trillion to the rebuilding of Hanoi, based on the layout of Chicago, a win win situation. Another $50 trillion for the rebuilding of Pyongyang will be forth coming next week. PM Wong thinks she can squeeze a couple of bucks out of China to rebuild Brisbane, being one of the family and all that, Australia hopes to include a Disney type theme park in the rebuild, especially for Chinese tourists, another win win situation.

Hi Mr Opinion,

I agree that China may be heading for some very severe internal problems - as you say, an economic downturn (I suspect a major downturn), but also major demographic problems in five or ten years, certainly before 2030, as the first generation of single-child parents ALL reach retirement age.

I'd predict that, even though China has tried to reverse its one-child policy, that it may take a long time, if ever, for the next generations to get used to the idea of having more than one child themselves. So the number of working Chinese may start to decline after 2020-2025, and more and more young people will be expected to financially support (either personally or through their taxes) more and more old people.

And a much higher proportion of those younger people are now highly educated - where do you reckon they would like to work ? The migratory drain on work-force numbers will only exacerbate China's economic and social problems.

So your suggestion that " .... if Taiwan is the intended victim that might make sense of why China is building a defensive wall of man made military islands in the seas south of Taiwan .... " may be partly right: I would suggest further that China is intent on seizing the entire South China Sea as national waterways, and to that end, they may leave Taiwan alone, since it supports that policy - after all, the Kuomintang devised that policy back in 1947.

In its conquest of that region, China will pick on the weakest of the countries there, perhaps Vietnam. It's ironic that the Vietnamese economy is now not just growing faster than China's, but that there are very active industrial and trade links between southern China and Vietnam. Indeed, an economic axis is developing from southern China through Vietnam and Laos to Thailand. The last thing the region needs is Chinese aggression, and ultimately, that's the case for China itself.

Joe