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The Forum > General Discussion > RBA doing a job or faking it?

RBA doing a job or faking it?

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World War 2 baby boomer generation who may remember mortgage interest rates during the 1980s, should remember the hardship experienced of the many up and down variable mortgage rates between 1979 to 1994.
http://www.loansense.com.au/historical-rates.html
I believe the 1980s above rates are incorrect.
I remember, after gold spiked at US$800 an oz. in October 1979. The US Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Paul Volcker, raised bond rates to 18% to counter said excuses that the US currency was losing value during the 1970s high inflation. Under that excuse Australia had 18% mortgage interest rates after having a 2 year property boom, prompting a rush of land and house buying by the WW2 baby boomer generation.
February 1981, I applied for a variable mortgage loan at an ANZ bank, to be told the variable interest rate loan was 7%.
Farmers were encouraged to borrowed from a European country at lower rates. Hawke comes to government, floating the Australian currency. Many farmers going bankrupt as Australian currency goes from US$1.40 to US$.80. Loan obligations doubled.
I vaguely remember interest rates high and low at least twice before the 1987 share market crash where rates were low allowing a share market 1986-87 run-up.
1987 crash as I remember, was caused by the US secretary of state believed the US dollar was losing value, so he placed bond rates up from 8% to 10%, share markets crash 20%. Australian mortgage rates were reduced to 4% for 2 years, allowing a property and investment company boom. Treasurer Keating announced the recession we had to have.

Interest rates during these years fluctuated between buying property incentives of 7% to 22% loan foreclosures and renegotiations, punishing investors, blamed on inflation, intern was blamed on Ragean's Star War technology research. Rewarded with the Soviet Union collapsing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLDK0G4Wktc

All the above mentioned information would be important to university students who would be studying economics. That if students were instructed to RBA website for statistical historical information. Information is false.
Bond rates don't start recording until 1992. Headlined Mortgage rates that go back to the 1950s, are no longer mentioned.
Posted by steve101, Tuesday, 4 August 2015 12:52:42 PM
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AU is headed on a collision course with a ratings for credit downgrade.

With a 17 billion interest payment, We should not be inviting further payments.

Sooner rather than later interest rates have to rise. AU is in the doldrums with stagnated consumer and business confidence. Unless we have an election soon we are headed for further flattening of economics.

Govt; piggery is not helping one little bit. Persistent attacks on the rights of workers in one section of the community for some reason is just a forerunner of an overall attack. Productivity and wages somehow are linked to the prosperity of employers.
Posted by doog, Wednesday, 5 August 2015 11:08:46 AM
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doog,
"AU is headed on a collision course with a ratings for credit downgrade."

WTF is that supposed to mean?
Are you channelling Barnaby Joyce?
Posted by Aidan, Wednesday, 5 August 2015 11:55:04 AM
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The RBA by holding interest rates low to increase borrowing, allows more people to borrow to finance property buying. Low interest rates reduces bank interest rate rewards, while houses prices climb during auction bidding.

Large amounts of money held in banks loses value regardless what CPI statistics state. CPI statistics are a poor indicator of the value of money as very little money coming out of bank savings is spent on CPI listed products, and or intentional market forces are holding selected CPI product item at low prices. I could go as far as to say, companies holding down CPI products as to allow interest rates to be held low.

Though an increased demand for housing exists during property boom periods as now. A limited number of skilled building trades people may not increase housing production by any significant amount. This can be shown by unemployment figures. A media comment recently stating fears of fewer trades people in the building industry.

What may happen is that the dreaded bust after boom periods in share market margin lending increases, fed by low bank interest loans. Retired workers having little understanding of margin calls are seeking advice from financial advisers. Financial advisers are guiding recently retired people into risky investment company investments, based on assurances of higher fix interest returns, stating low risk.

The housing boom bubble fears and over demand to limited supply of property would have been understood by the RBA in economic theory, to be an undesirable circumstance leading to a bust.

I believe after the 2002 to 2004 property boom, houses prices should have fallen. Instead, house properties remaining high (in my area), builders building homes crashed from low demand. Low demand should have had property prices falling.
After the 2002 to 2004 property boom ended and people having taken up property in fear of losing value from their savings, the following slump in demand had property difficult to sell unless advised to sell (from what was priced) at large reduced prices, were acknowledged, as I had heard from one hearsay story.
Posted by steve101, Wednesday, 5 August 2015 1:22:08 PM
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I believe property prices are controlled by some guiding hand. Because property owners seek advice on property values from real estate agencies, real estate agencies seek advice from higher real estate authorities in percentage terms, whom tend to state some unknown market forces ideology.

Property booms often lasting 2 years are contrived and promoted through media news. News media have been talking about the Sydney property boom for almost 2 years. The Sydney boom may have started due to media announcements of a Sydney property boom in progress.

...............................................................

I remember, during the 1980s I heard that after 1977 property boom started, when married couples applied for mortgage loans, couples with low deposit savings due to 1970s inflation. Women were asked to sign an agreement not to have children for a number of years, in order for women to earn money in employment. Women rather than being the next generation baby producer and children carer, women became a second income earner to provide financial security rather than large family financial security. This resulted in, two incomes are often required to own a home in a city. Supply and demand theory would have said women in the work force allows limited supply of property to increase in price due to competition in demands' ability to pay out mortgage loans. Women in the work force have pushed property prices up, being an important difference in property valuations, yet does not receive any media debating that I have heard. Governments encouraging women to work resulted in fewer benefits for families other than probable lowering of income tax margins, having more people earning money and fewer people: children and single women needing financial support.
Posted by steve101, Wednesday, 5 August 2015 1:27:05 PM
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Recently a media report suggested, for first home buyers to save for a deposit to buy a home in Sydney, first home buyers will need to save between 7 to 15 years. Usually mortgage loans take 30 years pay out. By obtaining a university degree; repaying out university loans; saving for a deposit for a mortgage loan to buy property; paying out loans before retirement, while still having saved money for retirement, enslaves workers lives up to retirement age.
High property prices in cities push up residential rents, consuming much of the money earned after taxes. To obtain a mortgage deposit, young couples must live with parents for a number of years, placing relationship strains on marriages.
Are Australian lives getting better or progressively becoming worse?

Anyone wanting to fill in blank gaps with their memories of up and down variable mortgage interest rates during the 1980s, are welcomed.
Posted by steve101, Wednesday, 5 August 2015 1:31:28 PM
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