Aidan,

At least you have accepted as fact that supply has to be tailored to demand to demand, and that introducing a variable supply into a system introduces instability to the system. (basic physics)

Secondly, I said that consumers are on fixed annual contracts not fixed price contracts. Their supply is guaranteed, even if the price is TOU.

I guess that you are not alone in assuming that wind power is free once the equipment is installed. Not true. Maintaining wide spread spinning equipment 30 stories high by specialized crew is more expensive than maintaining single 500MW generators and boilers.

The share price of Geodynamics has crashed due to its inability to cover even a small portion of its subsidized costs. Its main investors have abandoned it, and it is essentially dead in the water.

If all SA's renewable generation failed, it would draw off the Aus network, so its network stability is presently not reliant on unreliable renewables.

Shadow,

Yes, it's one of two potential sources of instability in the system (the other being demand variation). Similarly stability can be restored by altering the demand as well as by altering the supply. Just because supply is guaranteed doesn't mean there should be no financial penalty for using more when demand is high.

I'm aware that there's a maintenance cost for renewable energy, though I wasn't aware that it was proportional to output. And even if it exceeds fossil fuel's maintenance cost, it's still nowhere near the fuel cost.

Geodynamics's main problem is that it's so far from the grid. If we had a connection between SA and Queensland (which would be useful for price and network stability reasons) Geodynamics would be commercially viable, but as yet we don't.

Do you think if all Germany's renewable generation failed, it would draw off the Europe network, so its network stability is presently not reliant on unreliable renewables? If not, what do you think the difference from SA is?

The SA grid was far more unstable before the solar and wind power was connected than it is now.

Aidan,

South Australia is relatively small, whilst Germany is the biggest electricity consumer in the EU. If Belgium had the same problem, then probably their loss of renewables would not be an issue.

Germany buys a lot of power from France (nuclear) and Italy (coal) already, and relies on them to help manage Germany's peak loads. However, there are limits as to what can be supplied with little warning. Already unexpected load demands from Germany have created problems in Germany and Italy with their networks experiencing outages.

Finally, the only successful load management system involve load shedding. In some countries, some management has been achieved by cutting out non critical load such as water heaters, but this helps by a couple of % at best. If you have something the rest of the world does not know of, you could make a fortune by patenting it.

Shadow

" Germany buys a lot of power from France (nuclear) and Italy (coal) already, and relies on them to help manage Germany's peak loads. However, there are limits as to what can be supplied with little warning. Already unexpected load demands from Germany have created problems in Germany and Italy with their networks experiencing outages."

Sorry I don't know where you got that from, but it is just plain wrong apart from the fact the France does export some power to Germany.

The fact is wind power needs an alternative for the few occasions when it is not available, but it does not suddenly stop blowing without warning so it really does not have much to do with peak loads.

Facts
Germany is a net exporter of power mainly to the Netherlands, Austria, Poland, and Luxemburg. It exports the slightly more power to Poland as it imports from France. It neither imports or exports any power to Italy. Italy has the second worst figures for reliability in Europe ! maybe its all the coal they burn.

Germany to Netherlands 12.5 TWh
Netherlands to Germany 126 GWh

Germany to Austria 8.6 TWh
Austria to Germany 1.9 TWh

Germany to Switzerland 6.9 TWh
Switzerland to Germany 1.6 TWh

Germany to Poland 4.5 TWh
Poland to Germany 16 GWh

Germany to Luxembourg 3.1 TWh
Luxembourg to Germany 698 GWh

Germany to Denmark 3 TWh
Denmark to Germany 2.8 TWh

Czech to Germany 3.2 TWh
Germany to Czech 1.8 TWh

France to Germany 4.2 TWh
Germany to France 1.1 TWh

Italy to Germany is a big fat zero
Italy is a net importer of power mainly from France and Switzerland

Source
https://www.energy-charts.de/exchange.htm

Fact
The German grid is the most reliable in Europe after Denmark and probably better than any grid in Australia.

https://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/images/dossier/saidi-international.jpg?itok=ST5hhpIA

Conclusion renewables if anything are improving the reliability of the German grid. It is interesting to note that Denmark with its high proportion of renewables has the best record of reliability in Europe.

Fix for links above
Power imports exports Germany
http://www.energy-charts.de/exchange.htm

Reliability grid.
http://www.cleanenergywire.org/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/images/dossier/saidi-international.jpg?itok=ST5hhpIA

Warmair,

You state that 'Wind does not suddenly stop'. Well how do you account for 28.9% of wind power stopping in a 5 minute period in SA! NEM data 2014.

If this occurs constantly/occasionally you need a constant load following source and in Australia that is Coal not Nuclear base load power. The coal generators choofing out CO2 but this is not accounted for. It is all crazy this renewable energy.

Regards,