The Forum > General Discussion > Why do we insist on bitting the hand that feeds us
Why do we insist on bitting the hand that feeds us
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Posted by rehctub, Monday, 4 May 2015 10:33:56 AM
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The problem of understanding what is happening to our economy as well
as that of most other developed countries is widespread. The left as well as the right, business as well as unions, the finance manipulators as well as the investors, the democrats as well as the facists, in all these groups the majority do not understand that the world has changed. Goldilocks is dead ! There is no longer a "Just Right" price for oil. The highest price the economy can afford is lower than the lowest price the producers can afford. This is one of the results of peak oil. It is here now. As governments, oppositions, banks etc do not recognise that we are now in a time of zero growth everything they propose just makes things worse. Rehctub, you example of taxing the rich is just one example. It is why neither austerity or money printing has not helped. The US growth rate so far this year is 0.2%. If that does not ring any bells what will ? Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 6 May 2015 9:32:02 AM
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An explanation, that US growth rate is what the yearly rate will be
if it continues as is. Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 6 May 2015 9:48:55 AM
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"Why do we insist on bitting the hand that feeds us"?
More likely, the hand which is slyly picking the pockets of Oz... http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tax-office-statistics-reveal-the-55-millionaires-who-paid-no-tax-20150429-1mw2zp.html?stb=twt "Tax Office statistics reveal the 55 millionaires who paid no tax Fifty-five of Australia's highest earners paid no income tax at all during 2012-13, not even the Medicare levy. All earning at least $1 million, they managed to write their taxable incomes down to below the $18,200 tax-free threshold, although for most the exercise was expensive. Tax statistics released Wednesday reveal that 40 of them claimed an extraordinary $42.5 million for the "cost of managing tax affairs" meaning they each paid an average of $1 million to an adviser prepared to help to bring down their taxable income, which is itself a tax deduction. Between them they reported earning $129.5 million, an average of $2.3 million. By the time their accountants had finished with them they reported losing a combined $12.8 million." Posted by Poirot, Wednesday, 6 May 2015 10:33:28 AM
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Bazz: You've harped on about petrol prices before and how you believe that the last few year's price changes has had a major effect on the economy. So below I've reposted the main part of a response that I gave you a while back. (Note: I've updated the petrol price inline with http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/retail/ulp/index.htm):
... on the whole, a large increase in the at-the-pump petrol price wouldn't cause the massive, destructive effects to the economy that people claim. Let's do the numbers: Using these 2012 statistics from the ABS : http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/9208.0 : the total fuel consumed was about 32,000ML of which 57% was petrol and 38% was diesel. So if the current at-the-pump price of about $1.35/L petrol and $1.30/L diesel *doubled* to $2.70 and $2.60 respectively than that would be an extra: $(32GL*0.57*$1.35/L) + $(32GL*0.38*$1.30) = $40.4B over a year. The Australian economy's GDP is $1.525trillion (2014- from wikipedia). So the percentage of the extra cost to GDP would be about $40.4B/$1.5T*100% = 2.7% Now, 2.7% is the grand scheme of things is not a great deal compared to other potential disruptive events-- such as large international currency fluctuations. Indeed, if you say that the average person works 50hrs a week than 2.7% is equivalent to 81 mins or about 16mins each day (for 5 days) which is less the time wasted by a lot of workers with coffees, Facebook/Tweeting/general internet, chatting to colleagues, etc. Note, it should be remembered that these sums above were for a *doubling* of price and that this is a very generous assumption. It is unlikely for such an increase over the next few years. PS: I acknowledge that impact of increasing the petrol price is not just a simple case of subtracting the cost from the total economy but is a bit more complicated than that-- eg: if someone decides not to drive to the shops one less time a week to save fuel then they won't spend the money at the shops that they would otherwise have. But these figures do give you a good indication of the impact. Posted by thinkabit, Wednesday, 6 May 2015 11:30:51 AM
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Thinkabit, I would not dispute your figures, however the increase in
the price of oil is of the order of $20 billion a year. That is the before refining increase, and before transport costs. However that price gets multiplied through the system and turns up in many places such as the price of food. There is a rather well known graph which shows that every recession, except the dotcom recession, was preceded by a spike in oil prices. In those cases the economy recovered because there was no "tightness" in oil supplies. However in 2008 that situation no longer applied. After 2009 the fracking of expensive tight shale rock covered up the "tightness" in oil supply. However the higher prices in recent years together with more efficient cars and many other cost savings, resulted in a decline in demand and the resultant fall in price. Using that graph it would be interesting to calculate the sensitivity of the economy to oil prices. There may well be enough data in that graph to calculate that sensitivity. If you have never seen the graph referred to above I will attempt to find it again and put the link up here. Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 6 May 2015 1:26:43 PM
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What people really have to understand is that of the 23 odd million of us, some 74%, or 17 million reley on the other 16%, the wealthy, or wealth creators by way of financial support.
Do we really want to ask these them pay even more than they are already paying, either directly through taxes, or indirectly through jobs created or taxes created as a result of them choosing to operate in such an expensive country to do business in.
Talk about bite the hand that feeds us.