o sung wu,
As the senior LNP organizer for the recent disaster, thanks to Campbell Newman and the PM, I suggest everybody reads Ayn Rands "Atlas Shrugged"
I also believe that the LNP should hand over government to the Labor Party for the next ten years the watch them beg for the 'managers' to return.

It would be churlish of me not to comment on Squeers' very generous advertisement and reference, particularly given our frequently snarky exchanges.

I think he was most likely listening to ABC RN Breakfast where the other commentator was Lorann Downer, who is a former ABC journo, an academic at UQ, and involved with the ABC's Vote Compass.

But I did repeat the prediction later that morning on ABC 612, at which time Janine Walker represents the left side of the debate, and I the right, so it is a bit more ideological, although we often cross over from where people expect us to be.

I wasn't quite right - I expected a slim Labor government and have the betting slip to prove it. But I think I was about the only serious commentator who was anywhere near the money. It is also still possible that there might be a minority LNP government.

Anyway, it is just a reflection on how I do my analysis. I go with the figures, whatever they say, and I apply a bit of knowledge as to how campaigns are run and what happens. I long ago got over the idea that because a party has held a seat for a generation that it will always hold it, and any serious student of politics should have too.

Two years out I would have said Newman would most probably win, and if he hadn't been such a clod, along with a great number of those around him, he would have been returned.

I have been told that a lot of people on social media predicted it, but there is a difference between wish fulfillment and serious analysis. As they say, a stopped watch is still right twice a day.

Squeers, Graham,

I have to admit that I don't know too much about Queensland state politics, even though Newman was always in the news.

I'll give you a view from someone who, on twitter, is most of the time pretty much surrounded by a sea of lefties.

Because of that, I initially had the impression that Newman was so disliked that he would be comprehensively thrown out. It was only when the election was called that I realised just how mammoth a proposition that was. When I first saw Anastacia Palaszczuk, she appeared quite wishy-washy to me - as if she'd been cast in the wrong role. But as the campaign wore on, she hung in there and seemed to be going okay.

So, Graham, as you know, social media is more likely to be driven by ideological and personal enmities. Those on the left on my twitter feed were more likely, a year or so out, to believe Newman's govt would be turfed, than they were during the election campaign.

They were far more sober and realistic after the election had been called - and there weren't too many of the serious ones who really thought Labor could pull it off...they tended to concentrate a lot on Newman losing his seat.

Anyway, great call on your behalf to have read the tea leaves so well.

Who would have thought that Labor could gain so many seats
in Queensland when they started with only nine. Not me!

I knew
that Campbell Newman was not popular, and that the selling
of assets was a big issue. As were the cuts to essential services,
unemployment, and corruption.

However the Labor leader being a female - I was
sure would not get in considering the previous female leader's
demise. But there you go. The voters made their message loud
and clear. Congratulations Graham! Well done for calling it!

Now what are your predictions for 2016 federally?

Foxy,

"Now what are your predictions for 2016 federally?"

Lol!...shall we say the situation is a tad "fluid" at the moment.

Far too early to say!