Well Robert of course it won't happen one morning that we get up and
find rationing in place, excepting of course a terrorist attack on
some world sensitive refinery, but a gradual screwdown on price.

A big escalation in price could come over six months if interest rates
rise in the US and put the tight oil fields out of business.
The rise necessary to keep them in business will probably cut back demand.
It is a self adjusting mechanism, up to a point but the rest of the
economy might not be able to adjust.
As the tight oil fields slow down (hopefully) or shut down over a month
it will happen.
They were only ever a short term fill in of which government failed to take advantage.
They were warned but decided they knew better.
Now we are importing 90% of our fuels and we have tied up our gas in
firm export contracts so we cannot convert our trucks & cars.

The interesting times will come in about 6 years when we have import 100% of our oil.
At the moment it is "only" about 91%?
The price of petrol is heading towards $8 per litre by 2020.
Grey nomading will be *difficult* by then but dream on, it might not happen like death and taxes.

Actually many grey nomads stay in one place for quite some time and
then might just move a couple of hundred KM and stay there for another month.
That way, fuel costs are minimal.

In response to Rehctub,

The Holden factory will be closing down in a few years, so will these people be "driving" to work?

I agree with some that if we have better planning that links to education, business, people, parks, research, cycling trails, roads and "local employment"... we would have less need for cars on our roads.

Solar/electric buses, if cost effectively developed (as currently expensive) could be built in Australia - providing a growth industry for Australia that is eco-friendly. I hardly consider this "la la land" path to go down.

The car industry in Australia is dead, but too many people once they reach L plate driving age want to get behind the wheel - and other options are simply left behind.

NathanJ,

When small electric cars are cheap enough, and when we can charge them ourselves, from our solar panels via our home battery-bank (or from their in-built solar panels as we 'cruise around'), then the revolution can become a reality.
And I think it will come, eventually.
(Of course, development of efficient hydrolization fuel-cell technology - producing hydrogen and oxygen from water, for combustion in an advanced internal-combustion engine - may provide a leap-frog to a higher efficiency, and even more environmentally friendly, alternative.)

But then, we will still need heavy diesel-powered transport vehicles, farm tractors and bulldozers and such. However, these may then be supplied from bio-fuel sources - algae or palm oil, for example.
So, rationing to ensure supply to these 'essential' services will of course drive many 'personal' petroleum-powered vehicles off the road and out of existence.

Still, as long as there is no affordable alternative to the household petrol-guzzler, not much will change - except perhaps conversion to LNG as a 'stop-gap'.

But it is on the cards that private diesel-powered cars will either have to be converted (or designed) to run on canola oil or similar, or else be 'scrapped', in the not too distant future. (Though the thought of it makes my heart bleed; I so love 'diesel power'.)

(And, whoever contends that diesel should not be subsidized for genuine on-farm agricultural purposes can only be a 'red', and most definitely not to be trusted.)

As oil will never "run out" priority could be given to a government
refinery to produce diesel for farming and food delivery.

I saw an article quite some time ago about farming with horses.
The point was made if it came to that most of us will starve.
A man with a tractor can plough 200 acres a day.
A man with a horse can plough 10 acres a day.
If the latter, we will need 20 more ploughmen.

However 20 acres will have to be set aside to grow horse feed.

I have reserved a book from the library The Collapse of Complex Societies By J Tainter.
I will make a comment when I have read it.