"The question therefore needs to be asked: how will Jakarta respond to a Cosgrove appointment? In an article on the ABC website, John Menadue argues that Cosgrove could indeed be a further provocation. “Discretion suggests that the Abbott Government should not worsen the situation by appointing a former military opponent of Indonesia as our next governor general"
Personally I believe that we have allowed Indonesia to bully us or try to for too long and it is time to hit back.
Abbott is doing that in more ways than one.
General Cosgrove is good for the job.
Indonesia is threatening our shores and our navel presence.
Now is the time for confrontation.
A war with Indonesia would last about three days with Australia coming out on top with no or very little causalities.
I say "BRING IT ON"

>>A war with Indonesia would last about three days with Australia coming out on top with no or very little causalities.
I say "BRING IT ON">>

Really?

Well for now that's probably true.

By 2020?

See:

How Indonesia will control Australian migration

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/1/24/politics/how-indonesia-will-control-australian-migration

Indonesia is buying 180 Sukhoi's including the Su 35S. I think they'll outclass the F35 lightening II and give Indonesia air dominance in the north.

The Indonesians are also purchasing a dozen missile firing submarines. That should ensure sea dominance.

In fact Indonesia seems intent on a rapid arms buildup.

Indonesia has 11 times our population. It's economy is still a smaller but has been growing rapidly of late.

The era of Australia calling the shots in this region may be drawing to a close.

>A war with Indonesia would last about three days with Australia coming out on top with no or very little causalities.
Something tells me this is a highly unlikely outcome. their army has 20 million soldiers for a start. Australia would lose this conflict before WPH&S has added its two cents worth. PC too would take too much time. I think it would all be over for Australia before they got the first safety check out of the way.

Hehehe! Indy.
Have you got a signed JSA and Hot Work Certificate to use that Rocket Launcher ;~)

They said the Iraqi war was going to be over in a week?

Maybe we could shock and awe them with paper work, they'd run a mile :~)

As a nearly 80 year old former soldier of more than one army and with bags of experience, I give gratis the following advice;
either arm and train the citizeny on the Swiss model or learn Indonesian and make it a compulsory subject in schools.

It might also help to convert to Islam, but, at the very least, get a good edition of the Qur'an.

I agree.
I too think we would not beat Indonesia in a war, mainly due to their huge population.

Cosgrove will have no power as a Governor General though and I'm sure the Indonesians know that.

Of far more provocation is this Government sending its navy to turn back the refugee boats. Surely they could have found others to do the job?

We will annoy our nearest neighbours at our own peril...

stevenlmeyer,

If what you say is true are they using the millions of dollars we are giving them or are they printing internationally acceptable currency.
Or are these gifts from like thinking Islamic countries,
Best we hit them with a pre-emp strike now before they hit us.
Or perhaps we should take the advice of Is Mise

Suse,

You agree to arming and training the citizens of Australia.

WOW ! !

No Is Mise, I was thinking of the already trained security personnel as a matter of fact.
Why would they need to be armed anyway?
Do they plan to shoot refugees trying to get to Australia now?

Chrisgaff1001,

From what I heard on the ABC radio yesterday, was that Cosgrove would be a good choice particularly because he had strong personal relationships with the heads of the Indonesian military.

"THE Indonesian navy has added three small warships to its southern patrols, with Jakarta declaring they are there to intercept people-smuggling boats, not to deter Australian incursions."

This would indicate that Indonesia is actually beginning to co operate for the first time in years.

Suse,

I said, "....either arm and train the citizeny on the Swiss model or learn Indonesian and make it a compulsory subject in schools.

It might also help to convert to Islam, but, at the very least, get a good edition of the Qur'an."

You said "I agree...."

Now you tell us that you don't agree; strange

is Mise,
I don't think Suseonline comprehends a mentality like that of the Swiss. Arm every Citizen not just by giving them a weapon but train their mentality by participating in a National Service as well. It can't be done in Australia yet because the mentality is no longer available but a National Service will bring it back.
Also, what the Suseonlines' of this world don't comprehend is that there is no other situation anywhere in this world such as the Indonesia/Australia situation. It is unique & it requires unique thinking & unique tactics. It can be done but you'd need to hire mercenaries on every level & in every field with diplomacy foremost.

>>Also, what the Suseonlines' of this world don't comprehend is that there is no other situation anywhere in this world such as the Indonesia/Australia situation. It is unique & it requires unique thinking & unique tactics.>>

Hmm let's see.

--Australia has a culture that is different to that of the surrounding countries.

--Many regard the majority inhabitants of Australia as foreign intruders in the region.

--It is the most technologically advanced and highly developed country in the region.

--It looks to a distant major power for diplomatic and military support. In fact if it had not been for that distant major power it probably would not exist as an independent state today.

--The other major power in the region is a Muslim country with eleven times Australia's population is buying large quantities of weaponry from Russia

No similar situation? Really?

Of course there are differences. Australia has no land border with any other country so outright invasion is difficult. Also it is physically very large though much of it is almost uninhabitable desert.

But I'm sure if you put your minds to it you can think of a similar situation.

Oh and, by the way, in the eyes of the Muslim bosses of Indonesia, a "crusader country", Australia, invaded its territory in 1999 with some diplomatic help from that distant major power on which Australia relies on so greatly.

Unique? Really?

I do not like bellicose, we will sort them out, nonsensical statements. We do not need a war with anyone.
I think TA is doing a good job of playing the diplomatic game with the Indonesians and stopping the boats.
We also need to get along with our neighbours just as they need to get along with us.

almost uninhabitable desert,
stevenlmeyer,
Only to an Australian, to an Indonesian there's more scope they you could poke a stick at & that is one of the fundamental differences. Don't for one moment think that they think the way we think. To endure the hardship of making something out of nothing for the benfit of future generations is what they believe in unlike us who want everything now & stuff the future generations.
That is a mentality we need to come to grips with.

Hi there CHRISGAFF1000...

I agree with most of what you say. It's about time we did stand-up to Indonesia, once and for all. Before going to Vietnam I was involved in the 'Konfrontasie' with Indonesia (1964/65) and with the little direct contact we had with them (during cross-border ops in Borneo), the one thing they don't like, is to 'lose face'. They like it even less, when an enemy 'loses face'! So I reckon you're on the money, standing-up to them, is probably the best option at this time.

A pre-emptive strike sounds good too, but ? Do you believe we have the military capacity to do much more than simply give them a 'blood nose' ? They have a huge land army, and we've been 'foolishly' teaching their Officer's, strategic and tactical protocols for years, under successive governments. Your belief we could probably defeat them in the space of a little over 72 hours, well...I don't know ?

chrisgaff1000,

I’m unsure about any impact that Peter Gosgrove might have as GG? The East Timor Intervention was for and on behalf of the UN. All he did was demonstrate to the TNI was that all they were good for shooting civilians with AK47’s.

As for the TNI, they are a political backdrop for Indonesian public consumption, militarily a joke.

Negotiations for upgrading their military have been in progress since 1998 and still no budget, as confirmed by Russia’s US$ 1 bn loan offer for procurement.

Military assets without integrated protection are junk!

You need only consider the technical challenges of integrating second hand SU30’s, SU 35’s, SU 27’s, F17’s and miscellaneous weapons from the USA, Russia, Britain, Brazil and South Korea, to understand that there are no integrated AWS, ADS or Aegis options available to the Indo’s. All they will have is “high speed airframes” for Australian target practice.

As for the Leopard tanks, the Series 2 A6 is a great tank however, if they did have them and this is still a 2014 “projected” contract, they would use these how? Get them to Australia by magic I guess?

Forget the F35 Lightening II, they can’t “see” it and therefore can’t shoot at it. Remember that the TNI has licenses for only 18 Air to Surface missiles and no air refueling capability. No more than half a dozen F/A 18’s would finish off the entire TNI capacity in about 24 hours, and they know it.

As for submarines, what are they looking at? U-209 type submarines, a 1940 designed diesel sub? The failed attempt to buy the Russian Kilo Class, now shelved. The South Korean SS-209 Changbogo class submarines now becomes the last option for the importation of submarines. Without integrated support these would be in “Davey Jones Locker” within hours.

Indonesia will never import $ billion’s worth of low tech, indefensible weapons systems that would end up as scrap metal. Note that not one proposed contract has any element of high tech defense systems, they couldn’t defend against a 1960’s trainer aircraft.

Back to rice and palm oil?

Back to rice and palm oil?
spindoc,
well, after a coulple of satellites & repeater towers have been knocked out of service rice & palm oil might just be more valuable than useless electronics in the hands of computer nerds with nothing to get their gear powered up. Don't for a minute fool yourself into believing high tech will be our saviour when communication is cut.

o sung wu,
The Konfrontasie or Confrontation was a good name for it
Interesting and informative site about these blokes;
http://www.antenna.nl/~daktari/indie/indhis09.htm
We were sent up to Surabaya in early March 1966 to 'remove' Sukarno from power in favor of the Suharto led army generals.
When he resigned (at the point of a gun) we were ordered back to East Timor and very quickly deployed to Vietnam as a seconded 1RAR unit attached to the 173rd Infantry Brigade.
This was done, we now know, to the keep the knowledge of Australian involvement in Indonesia out of the world press.
It was nice after all those years to actually get a gong for the job.
Did you get yours mate?

spindoc,
Well put scenario indeed. My understanding is that they are still running around in '39/'45 US tin cans that are more rust than metal.
All the more reason why we should "spank the bully" now and maybe he'll learn to behave in school.
Sure they have a massive ground army but they still have to get them here. We could still get our guns back yet.
Maybe that's where the Prophet comes in.

Hi there CHRISGAFF1000...

Yes indeed, the 'Pingat Jasa Malaysia' Medal. I don't know if you were aware, the British Forces who were also awarded the same gong under the same rules of eligibility, weren't allowed to wear it on the left side amongst their other gongs ?

I understand they're still 'bluing'about it, and so they should in my opinion ?

As a couple have said, an army in Indonesia is about as dangerous to Oz, as a bunch of fuzzy wuzzies in the Solomons.

Indonesia has a lot of inter island ferries, you regularly hear about them sinking, but they have absolutely no capacity to deliver a force to Oz, let alone deliver it with weapons. To keep it supplied with food, let alone transport, fuel & weapons is totally beyond it's capacity with in 25 years.

Any Indonesians, with any sort of education know this, we also know this, which is why they are complying with Abbotts gentle request to stop the boats, & they will continue do so.

Labor could have done this at any time it was prepared to forgo the Muslim vote, particularly in western Sydney, & that of the inner city chattering class.

This is the worst thing for Labor about having bought so many different batches of votes. No matter what they do, they will upset some of the other special interest mobs they have bought.

Yep, we have much more to worry about with the inner wreckers in the ABC click, then we are ever likely to have from Indonesia.

The only proviso there is have the Labor defense cuts, [over a billion a year], left us without enough ammunition to keep stopping even row boats? Could we simply run out of the capacity to keep shooting?

To keep the Muslim vote they had to upset some of their traditional working class vote. They had better get off the pro boat people bandwagon damn quick, if they don't want to loose them permanently. They have been doing just about everything they could to alienate the Bellies of this world. Even the massive loyalty of Belly & his mates can't be pushed too far for too long. Loose those like him, & the Labor party becomes nothing but a memory.

Yep, we have much more to worry about with the inner wreckers in the ABC click, then we are ever likely to have from Indonesia.
hasbeen,
I'm sure it's just a typo & you meant clique & yes you're right. I would however not dismiss the military capacity of Indonesia so easily. Indonesia today is not what it was 30 years ago as is Australia. Indonesia is making progress.

Teddy Roosevelt had it right "Speak softly and carry a big stick". We do not want any wars with anyone least of all our next door neighbour.
Although saying that I have just heard a prominent British Muslim say you cannot wear a particular cartoon on your T Shirt because he finds it offensive? Now there is a lesson for us all.

How about just a small incursion to grab the attention of the worlds' media and then involve the UN on the old grounds that Australia is really South Irian and that they are only reclaiming their territorial rights?

Australia is really South Irian and that they are only reclaiming their territorial rights?
is Mise,
I have that map & the South Irian Border is at the tropic of Capricorn, not that that makes it any less worrying.

I'm sure that an area that size would ease their population problems, at least for a few years!

is Mise,
I wonder if they then would keep the boat arrivals or still facilitate them on ? To NZ perhaps ? They too still need muslimising.

This illegals debacle was an accident waiting to happen and the former governments approach of 'words' not action has only allowed THEIR PROBLEM to fester.

I have said all along that we either take out the big stick now, or wait until they arrive with guns, it's our choice. Looks like the latter may be in the making.

As for us defeating Indonisia, keep dreaming is all I can say because if you gave every man woman over there a stick, they would take Australia in a heart beat. Remembering of cause that they would be sent to war at about age 13 and would have little to no regard for treating others with respect.

rehctub,
The real threat to Australia comes from Australians.

A war right now would do wonders for our economy

A war right now would do wonders for our economy
chrisgaff1000,
How ? There isn't enough money for everyday things let alone having to buy everything needed from overseas plus having to pay mercenaries who don't need to abide by WPH&S.
Who's going to pay for all the counseling afterwards ? Then there'd be the legal fees for inquiries on soldiers in case they shot somebody. Perhaps the federal Govt should buy a few Lottery tickets .

Lol.

Dads Army all over.

You blokes are brilliant.

Talk of war with Indonesia is crazy and will only achieve irreparable damage to both our countries. Indonesia is potentially a major trading partner and is doing a good job in suppressing Jemaah Islamiyah and should be congratulated. I think and hope that eventually Islam will collapse on itself and its faithful will return to the backward dogma and isolation where it has been laying for the last 1000 years. Indonesia hopefully has the resources and will to rise above this and make a positive contribution to the world.

SILLER,

You say that

"Talk of war with Indonesia is crazy and....is doing a good job in suppressing Jemaah Islamiyah and should be congratulated...."

In your opinion are they also doing a good job in terrorizing the native people of West New Guinea?

I'd like add a note of realism to this debate.

While I think the Indonesian economy is likely to outgrow Australia and it will become the dominant power in the region, right now it is struggling. It belongs to the so-called "fragile five" along with Brazil, India, South Africa and Turkey.

See:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/30/investing/emerging-markets-fragile-five/

While Indonesia is embarking on an arms-buying spree right now it is in no position to take on Australia. Nor, grandstanding aside, do I think it has any intention of doing so.

The danger lies in the future - some time after 2020. And the danger is not an invasion. I do not see Indonesia having the logistic capability of doing anything of the sort. Rather it is that small countries neighbouring emerging great powers tend to have an uncomfortable time

There are a few comments here that I think need notice.
First Indonesia was until about 2002 an exporter of oil.
However it peaked in 1992 and the export income has ceased and its
production will continue to decrease while its usage is still increasing.
This inevitably will put pressure on Indonesia's economy.
I am unaware of how dependant they are on food imports or if subsidies
are applied to food and fuel.
I think I remember riots in Indonesia when subsidies were withdrawn
from fuel.

Now I ask you to make a comparison with Egypt.
Egypt has gone along the same path that Indonesia has started upon.
If this scenario comes to pass Indonesia could become like Egypt and
for the same reasons, too many people and no money.
Indonesia however still has a lot of land that can be used for food.
So while they may not starve they may not be economically strong
enough to present a threat to Australia, unless we go down the
slippery slope that Indonesia seems destined to go down.

Frankly, with falling oil production, increasing cost of oil imports,
their consumption exceeded production in 2002 so they now have a fast
increasing oil bill, and they already have made the switch to motor
bikes, I can see nothing but a contraction of their economy.

That said how are they going to import all those Russian fighters as
well as fly them and maintain them ?

Is Mise:
What you say is important and there are some ugly happenings in West New Guinea. If there is a future problem with Indonesia it will be in New Guinea. The truth about the Newport mine murders has never been released and Indonesia will never relinquish any control of resource rich West New Guinea.