The Forum > General Discussion > Who won the debate, and why?
Who won the debate, and why?
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Posted by one under god, Tuesday, 20 August 2013 12:22:06 PM
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http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-19/joe-hockey-exaggerates-debt-figures/4897264
Debt going to $400 billion'
On Mr Hockey's claim that Labor's legacy will be debt "going to $400 billion", ABC Fact Check consulted the Treasury's Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook released on August 13.
It contains a figure almost that large, $370 billion, which represents Treasury's debt projection at the end of the four-year forward estimates period. That is, it is the projected debt for 2016-17.
The Treasury projection Mr Hockey chose to describe Labor's legacy was its figure for gross debt.
The $370 billion figure in this year's PEFO refers to Commonwealth Government Securities (CGS), or government bonds, on issue. This is what economists and governments refer to as gross debt.
In contrast, the figure Mr Hockey chose to describe the Coalition’s legacy was its figure for net assets – that is, assets less borrowings.
To make a comparison using like-for-like, Mr Hockey should have used Treasury’s projection for net debt – that is, borrowings less assets.
For the 2013-14 year, Treasury forecasts net debt of $184 billion. At the end of the forward estimates period in 2016-17, it projects net debt of $217 billion.
We left the country with net assets of $70 billion, where if we are elected on the 7th of September we inherit debt going to $400 billion.
Joe Hockey
To make a correct claim, Mr Hockey could have said: We left the country with net assets of $31 billion where if we are elected on the 7th of September we inherit net debt of $184 billion going to $217 billion.
When the Coalition left office in 2007, gross debt was $59 billion (and was more than outweighed by government assets, resulting in net assets of $31 billion). Currently, gross debt is $268 billion.
Another correct claim Mr Hockey could have made is: We left the country with gross debt of $59 billion where if we are elected on the 7th of September we inherit gross debt of $268 billion going to $370 billion.
Either way, the change is less dramatic than Mr Hockey claims.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-19/joe-hockey-exaggerates-debt-figures/4897264