Bazz,

What “shows a significant decline in 2019 or possibly earlier”?

Spindoc,
The production of shale oil already shows signs that it has peaked.
Conventional oil has not increased since 2005.
At present it is on a bumpy plateau with some signs of decline.
It is being topped up with shale oil, but the number of shale oil rigs
has declined significantly, so shale oil production must follow.
Each shale oil well has a decline rate between 40% and 70% per year.
The problem with this is not that they cannot drill fast enough it is
just that they cannot keep the money flow up.

Bazz,

I asked you “what” showed you this information. Is it a report? Investment analysis? Where did you get your information?

Not much of what you said is supported by my research but you may be able to point me to something that does?

The following link provides a comprehensive global analysis by reserves, and recoverable resources.

http://www.eia.gov/analysis/studies/worldshalegas

Sorry Spindoc,
There are a nuber of websites with articles on shale oil statistics.
Try theoildrum.com and resiliance.org.
Ther are also a couple on post carbon institute.

What has happened is that the shale oil has been hyped up to get finance.
Shale gas is somewhat different as the shale released gas much easier
than it releases oil because of the small size of the pores.
Here is one;

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-07-30/will-the-bakken-red-queen-have-to-run-faster

Just google shale oil decline.

The hype is typically way over the top, like the US being the new
Saudi Arabia etc etc.
The US still imports 40% of its consumption most of which comes not
from the Middle East but from West Africa.
All shale oil is doing is giving a bit more time get organised for
the overall decline.
The US imports about 7 million barrels a day and shale is about
1 1/2 million a day and looks like it could get to 2 million.

Bazz,

Your links were a disappointment because they are all on the “Peak Oil” mantra. If you start from that position you are assuming a false starting point.

The link I provided makes it clear what is and is not recoverable and why some forecasts have been revised down and others revised up. You also need to factor in the fact that 137 nations have shale reserves.

Peak Oil is dead and buried for the next 100 years and by then other fuels sources will have replaced some types of oil.

Try asking the question of Google properly, don’t ask for “shale oil decline”, ask for “shale oil reserves”. If you ask a closed question you will get a closed answer. Perhaps that’s what you wanted in order to support your preconceived position

Spindoc;
I thought you might say something like that.
I guess you have to look at what the various people who are or were in the business are saying.
The people still in the business have to take the oil companies position.
Those who are retired oil field enegineers or academics have a different opinion.
Also the retired geologists have a different opinion.
I suggest that you study the the oil drum papers.
Also you might like to argue with the OECD's International Energy Agency report for 2010.

Another source is Upsalla Univertities Global Energy Group.
Also the CEO of Total Oil.

Your agument is pointless.