The Forum > General Discussion > LAKE Vostock..baceria.. No evolution !
LAKE Vostock..baceria.. No evolution !
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nucleotide, must first pick a random location on the DNA (e.g. nucleotide
#1,633,099,415), then the mutation must delete that nucleotide (the nucleotide
that was deleted might have been an A, C, G, or T).
Note that there is a one in 2 billion chance that the correct nucleotide will be
deleted because every nucleotide has the same probability of being chosen for
deletion!
This is an example of the "location" issue combined with deleting a
nucleotide.
It turns out that the "location" issue is far more important than the reader might
think.
Examples below will demonstrate the importance of the "location" issue.
Remember, the three key variables in a mutation are "location of the mutation,"
"type of mutation," and "resulting nucleotide," meaning which nucleotide will end
up at that location (i.e. or lack thereof in the case of a deletion).
Every random mutation..has a one in 2 billion chance of choosing the correct
location (1 in 2 billion) for the mutation, a one in three chance of picking the
correct type of mutation (1 in 3) and a one in four chance in ending up with the
correct nucleotide (1 in 4).
2 billion times 3 times 4 equals 24,000,000,000.
That means every mutation has a probability of one in 24,000,000,000 of
being what evolution wanted (i.e. one in: 2 billion times 3 times 4), if the parent
species had DNA of 2 billion nucleotides!
And if you make 1,000 mutations, every one of these mutations has a one in
24,000,000,000 chance of being the correct mutation (i.e. in the correct location,
the correct type of mutation and the correct nucleotide ending up in that location,
if any)!
These three variables totally annihilate the theory of evolution from a statistical
standpoint!
No statistician on earth would support the theory of evolution if they
understood the issues and kept an open mind. Unfortunately, there are very few,
and probably zero, open minds in the field of evolutionary biology.