Funnily enough, I actually recently spoke with Paul Ehrlich when was out in Oz last year. Great guy, although I don't think I agree with him on a few things. Be that as it may, he actually admitted he was wrong, knows why and told us so. The thing is, he never factors in technological or political changes and is not a great economical modeller either. He said why he has never done so is because you just can't, many times you just can't see which changes will be made or can be made, which is quite a reasonable approach. This is why his resource predictions have been totally off the mark as well as anything to do with agriculture. Anybody who has actually worked in agriculture for a fair while will probably have noticed a great change in the politics and technology, but not all aspects, some never change- which is Ehrlich's point. Things need to change and he made predictions on what would happen if nothing did. But they did, they always do, and that doesn't do anything for your credibility, but it's just supposed to make you think a bit more about the issues.

That being said, anybody who still thinks that those old predictions are valid are delusional. But anybody who thinks that nothing is wrong is also. There is good reason for hope alright, straight from the mouth of Ehrlich : "It's not that we can't do better (with resources), it's just that we haven't yet. I have just tried to get people to do better."
The peak oil phenomenon will be a great driver of alternative technologies and many people won't notice a huge difference, or at least it won't be Mad Max time, which is what so many are getting hysterical over.

Ludwig,
indeed a great show for SBS and OZ TV . I threw a video in and recorded probably 3/4's of it .
When I can round the kids up I may have to blackmail them into having a look .
Every young person should have a good hard, analytical look at it .

And would the important and revealing CRUDE IMPACT be part of John Howard'd proposed "new modern history" curriculum for Australian schools? - highly unlikely .

Well written Bugsy and Pericles...finally some commonsense enters the debate. I concur with your comments. I was beginning to think these forums were a refuge for doom merchants and hysterical head bobbers.

lets put it in really simple terms: we let population increase until everyone is living in a concrete box 3m x 3m x 2m. we stack the boxes as high as the concrete allows. population continues to increase. our masters say: simple,really: put 2 people in each box. later on, we can put 3- we'll call it the gillette solution.

or we can stabilize now when the planet still looks like a slightly shabby version of the original. your choice is...?

Demos said "lets put it in really simple terms"....thats where Erlich went wrong.

I'm all for population stabilsation...just wary about how. How would suggest doing it Demos? I would certainly abhor any form of government control aka China's one child policy. And we are not really talking about Australia's propulation as it is in natural decline anyway.

Demos said "lets put it in really simple terms"....thats where Erlich went wrong.

I'm all for population stabilsation...just wary about how. How would suggest doing it Demos? I would certainly abhor any form of government control aka China's one child policy. And we are not really talking about Australia's population as it is in natural decline anyway.