The Forum > General Discussion > Climate of fear.
Climate of fear.
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Posted by qanda, Wednesday, 27 February 2013 4:42:03 PM
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Mhaze
Clouds are a huge topic some cause warming for example the temperature does not fall nearly as quickly on a cloudy night as it does on a clear night, on the other hand continuous layers of low level cloud dramatically reduces the incoming radiation thus leading to lower daytime temperatures. The result of good deal of research is that total cloud cover is unlikely to change sufficiently to alter the earth's albedo. Quote Mhaze "If you are right that higher temps lead to more water vapour which leads to higher temps what causes that cycle to break." Every object that is above absolute zero emits radiation. The rate of emission goes up by the fourth power or in other words double the temperature and the radiation output goes up by 16 times or looked at another way the rate of cooling goes up by a factor 16. It is this effect which breaks the cycle. See The Stefan-Boltzmann law of radiation. Quote Mhaze "We know that temps were higher in the past than now. Why didn't they just keep rising. Why did the Medieval Warm Period stop?" We know of a great many factors which influence climate we separate them by estimating the impact of each individual component as best we can. In the case of CO2 we have great deal of confidence about its impact on temperatures, whereas the effect of aerosols which in total causes considerable cooling we are not so sure about. http://www.climatechange.gov.au/climate-change/understanding-climate-change/~/media/Images/climate-change/understanding-cc/20120110-warming-20thc-role-of-water-vapour-500px.jpg?w=500&h=359&as=1 Posted by warmair, Thursday, 28 February 2013 8:20:38 AM
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So to summarise, warmair, as temps go up natural forces come into play to counteract that rise, thus keeping the earth's temps within a liveable span as has happened in the last several million years.
Fully agree. So let's sit back, enjoy the very slight warming that's occurred in the last 150yrs and hope it continues for a lot longer before the negative feedbacks kick in. Seems like a better plan than setting out to destroy our modern way of life. Unfortunately, given the halt in temp rises in the past two decades, it may be that the negative feedbacks have already kicked in. So as one wag was wont to say, don't sell your coat just yet. Posted by mhaze, Thursday, 28 February 2013 10:36:06 AM
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"...thus keeping the temps in the liveable span as has happened in the last several million years."
mhaze, Our climate has contributed to man developing the level of civilisation currently in play. "Liveable" - what dos that mean? Beetles and bacteria can thrive in conditions that humans find intolerable. Scientists are saying that global warming impacts our ability to go about our business as usual. The beetles and bacteria will thrive regardless - human civilisation may have a few more challenges. Posted by Poirot, Thursday, 28 February 2013 11:00:01 AM
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>>Beetles and bacteria can thrive in conditions that humans find intolerable. Scientists are saying that global warming impacts our ability to go about our business as usual.
The beetles and bacteria will thrive regardless - human civilisation may have a few more challenges.<< On the other hand, humans can be remarkably ingenious when it comes to adapting to extreme conditions. If the heat and dryness of the Arabian Desert or the icy blizzards of Greenland can support people then it's going to take lot more global warming than even the worst-case-scenario models predict to make temperate zones uninhabitable. Cheers, Tony Posted by Tony Lavis, Thursday, 28 February 2013 3:53:26 PM
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Quote mhaze
"So to summarise, warmair, as temps go up natural forces come into play to counteract that rise, thus keeping the earth's temps within a liveable span as has happened in the last several million years." See this image http://cnx.org/content/m41579/1.1/graphics10.jpg The difference is that the Co2 level is now way above the natural levels that have existed for over 1/2 a million years. If we keep going on the present path, we will reach a figure of 3 times pre-industrial levels by 2100, which has the potential to raise average global temperatures by 10 deg C or more. That would rapidly lead to an ice free world, and sea levels some 65 meters higher than today. The extinction of vast numbers of plants, animals and fish. It seems improbable that human civilization would survive such a dramatic shift in climate. At this point in time, we have a reasonable chance of avoiding that scenario, but we have to get a wriggle on or it will be too late. Quote mhaze "Fully agree. So let's sit back, enjoy the very slight warming that's occurred in the last 150 years and hope it continues for a lot longer before the negative feedbacks kick in. Seems like a better plan than setting out to destroy our modern way of life." There is absolutely no need to damage our modern way life, a path to a low carbon future has been shown time and again to be possible for something less than 1% of GDP, over the 35 years. Quote mhaze "Unfortunately, given the halt in temp rises in the past two decades, it may be that the negative feedbacks have already kicked in. So as one wag was wont to say, don't sell your coat just yet." This claim that global temperatures have not risen over the last 20 years is just plain wrong. You really should get out more. Posted by warmair, Thursday, 28 February 2013 4:13:19 PM
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Real sceptics would also have been following the work of our CSIRO's Antarctic Division.
Fake sceptics follow anti-science blog sites.