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The Forum > General Discussion > The World is Over populated

The World is Over populated

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http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
Bazz this link gives growth figures that stun, and should frighten.
And shows as your peak oil nears, population growth continues to accelerate.
It is my view, peak oil is but a symptom, not controller, of over population.
Posted by Belly, Saturday, 28 July 2012 6:24:56 AM
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I see water as the pivoting point in human population growth. As water drinking quantity & quality gradually decline all that goes with it hand in hand i.e. food production will keep pace & decease will be the catalyst. Just look at the polluted waterways around the globe. Desalination is definitely not the answer as it is excessively power consuming on a large scale & also excessively polluting.
The only thing that works is also the only thing people don't want to know about,restraint.
Posted by individual, Saturday, 28 July 2012 8:47:47 AM
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Yes, of course Individual, if water became restricted population must fall to match.
However if energy was still available it would be used to distill sea water.
Belly said;
And shows as your peak oil nears, population growth continues to accelerate.

Actually the peak started in 2006 and we are still on it.
The plateau at the peak will last for a few years before decline sets in.
The population will keep increasing for a while yet, its known as overshoot.
It may overshoot for a generation. Sooner or later the cost of food
will start to cause malnutrition and that will reduce fertility.

If I may give an example that impressed me. Figures from memory.

A farmer with a tractor and disc plough frame can plough 200 acres in a day.
A farmer with a horse and single furrow plough can plough 5 acres in a day.

Don't hold me to those exact figures, but the principle is what matters.
We have perhaps 1% of the population are farmers, we will need 20 times that number.

Australia is to become totally dependant on imported liquid fuels.
We will need to transition to natural gas vehicles as soon as we wake
up and stop selling off our gas.
Tell me, how will the farmer feed us if the Strait or Hormuz was
blocked tomorrow ?
True the 40% odd percent of our use that we produce could be rationed
for the use of farmers and food distribution.
Tough titties for the rest of us.

The problem is that we have $100s trillions tied up in liquid fuel
machines and other plant, not least farming.
It has been calculated that there is not enough finance available
to convert a significant proportion to natural gas.
That is to say nothing of the distribution network cost.
Posted by Bazz, Saturday, 28 July 2012 11:03:19 AM
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Bazz,
In addition to what you say about fuel cost and availability, we do not have sufficient productive land available on which to grow more food.

As fuel cost rise farmers will concentrate on the crops that are most cost effective for them and there may not be sufficient food available to give much to countries in famine.

US, and I assume Canada, is now in drought so there is a shortage of grain. How much would be able to be sent to Nth Africa if required?

Last night on a news segment it was said that the drought in US will cause a rise in the prices of bread, eggs and chicken here in Aus. Now in our drought the cost of chook feed rose dramatically and never seemed to have dropped much since. What I do not understand is how a drought in US makes our grain prices rise again. We are still exporting grain. There is no shortage of grain here now.

One other thing that needs consideration is that there is little long term grain storage facilities here to get us over if needed. Every harvest heaps of grain can be seen in the open under plastic. Waste from this must be substantial.
Posted by Banjo, Saturday, 28 July 2012 11:31:48 AM
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Well Banjo, we may not have enough suitable land to increase production
to say nothing of water.
I suspect if we are to act in our own interest we should not try to
grow more than we can eat ourselves. We also should not import food.
We need to halt immigration as we may well be approaching maximum
population that the country can sustain.
However we do need to export grain as that does give us a buffer for
those times of drought when production falls.
We do have to have enough in times of drought to feed ourselves.

Food is sold on an international market and that is why the world price
is reflected in our local prices. It is just one large market.
After all a farmer needs the best price he can get.

All this raises another point, as liquid fuels rise in cost the
freight costs for grain will rise alongside it. I don't know what
proportion of the cost is freight for bulk shipping so it may not
be very significant. However as there is a diesel shortage in Asia
refineries are producing more diesel and less bunker fuel and so
ships are having to buy a mixture of diesel and bunker fuel which is
a lot more expensive.

It all gets very complex doesn't it ?
Posted by Bazz, Saturday, 28 July 2012 11:58:22 AM
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As we charge away from the threads intended path, changing it to chicken or the egg, or oil.
May I ask this?
Is it not true one of my links said we would start to starve to death by 1970?
For the reasons said here not enough farming land/ability to grow food?
Bazz on his hobby horse ignores his own words, he says we started peak oil in 2008.
But ignores population growth continued its steady rise in that year, those before and after it.
If the worlds population TO DAY, was 1 Billion would we have peak oil?
Food shortages
Refugees
even Global warming?
Are the above the problem or a symptom of over population.
If I ignore my belief, that each is a symptom, will population in under developed country's not still rise even as it does now?
How much impact can peak oil have on third world country's using a tenth of what the west does.
How do I find the fuel cap on a Donkey cart?
Posted by Belly, Saturday, 28 July 2012 12:31:41 PM
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