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The Forum > General Discussion > 'Oil and the end of globalisation'

'Oil and the end of globalisation'

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Many of you here have a quite different opinion to myself about the
reasons for the Great Financial Crash and the current world economic
turmoil. The following link is to a one hour talk and question time
by Jeff Rubin a Canadian economist.
I think that you will find it enlightening. It is a little dated as it
is from November 2010 and since then oil went well over $100 in US and
$134 here. Since then the European situation has blown out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUD4tvTImxU&NR=1
Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 27 June 2012 1:05:53 PM
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Bazz, could you possibly summarise this lecture and highlight the main points, given that it is over an hour long.
Posted by Ludwig, Wednesday, 27 June 2012 6:22:37 PM
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This write up was attached to the Utube page.
He goes somewhat further into the effects of no more cheap oil.
The talk is half hour and questions are half hour.
Remember this is 2010 and it had not hit the fan in Europe then.

Commentary:
What do subprime mortgages, Atlantic salmon dinners, SUVs and globalization all have in common? They depend on cheap oil.

According to Jeff Rubin, we are poised on the brink of massive change. Dependent as it is on cheap oil, our global civilization is about to get the shock of its life.

Systems of trade, of finance, of shipping and manufacturing, of labor and international relations are all about to be rearranged. Get ready for a new world—one in which domestic manufacturing will be reinvigorated and the products and services we still enjoy will start coming from places much closer to home. There will be winners as well as losers when the age of globalization comes to an end. Distance will soon cost money, and so will burning carbon—both will bring long-lost jobs back home.

We may not see the kind of economic growth that globalization has brought, but local economies will be revitalized, as will our cities and neighbourhoods. Whether we like it or not, our world is about to get a whole lot smaller.
Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 27 June 2012 11:35:14 PM
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Globalisation was always going to be a flash in the pan. Sounds like things will edge into reverse and local manufacturing and "neighbourhood relations" will again be the name of the game. Trade will still go on as it always has, but distance will again wield some tyranny.
Posted by Poirot, Wednesday, 27 June 2012 11:41:34 PM
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*Distance will soon cost money, and so will burning carbon*

In that case Bazz, first of all a good portion of the world will
have to starve, because of course the most common cheap item that
depends on cheap transport is boatloads of wheat, barley, rice and
all the rest. Those who most depend on those boatloads are
the poor in developing countries.

In contrast, I'll still be buying my next Ipad from China, as the
thing only weighs a few hundred grammes, so freight hardly matters.

If it was built in Australia, I could never afford one in the first
place, so that would create no jobs at all.

So it might not turn out quite as you think, Bazz.
Posted by Yabby, Thursday, 28 June 2012 12:27:02 AM
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We will always have different opinions.
And we will usually have good reasons to hold them.
We should respect others views,well not some conspiracy type things.
Bazz/Poirot I disagree, strongly with both of you.
I strongly think peak oil will, when it comes, be the reason we get alternative fuels.
And the globalization is very much here to stay.
Indeed we should be aware some things are let die,some manufacturing, because it can and will be ,done better/cheaper in other places.
Oil, currently very cheap, is propped up by its owners, and blocking real change to new fuels.
We should be aware, greens and fellow travelers referring to distance things travel is a blind, and silly, who thinks about the great distances sailing craft bought food and spices from.
Or camels over deserts?
The naked Morris Dancers are as lost as Wil Robinson ever was in a space of their own.
Posted by Belly, Thursday, 28 June 2012 4:31:44 AM
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