Seems certain Greece must default, then Spain, who knows what next.
I doubt the great depression is coming, but who knows how much some country's and company's will see lost.
And As a result who may fall too, in a domino effect.
So what then, after the loss, we may well stand on the very edge of monetary reforms that could bring near centralized control of banking borrowing and lending.
Arjay is constantly warning us about the effects of endless printing of money.
We may see a world changing event, started by the impending Greek default.

Yes Belly I agree, I also suspect that they cannot rescue themselves.
If the US was not in a similar state it would not be so bad.
Many commentators believe that they cannot pay off their debts and that
all that is going on is a pass the hot potato game.
Sooner or later someone has to suffer the loss.

One report I read held that there is a real timebomb of derivities
in the US waiting to go off. It is apparently in the double digit trillions.
Of course they don't actually print money now it is just pixel money
on the screen of somebodies computer.

This is real Arjay stuff isn't it, except it is real !

Interesting starting point, Belly.

>>Seems certain Greece must default<<

I would have thought that this is actually less likely today than it was a week, a month, three months or six months ago. There seems to be a reluctant acceptance that this is a global problem, that needs to be addressed globally.

"...the financial crisis sweeping Europe was described as 'the single biggest risk for the world economy'"

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2161527

Which is presumably why the IMF will get additional funding:

"...world leaders in Mexico have agreed to increase resources to the International Monetary Fund, with China offering another £27 billion, and other countries including Brazil, Russia and India pledging £6.3 billion each.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-2162036

>>...we may well stand on the very edge of monetary reforms that could bring near centralized control of banking borrowing and lending<<

That might be one possible outcome, Belly, no question about that. But there is a school of thought that considers State control to be the worst possible solution. Can you imagine having to apply to the Department of Finance for a loan to buy a car? Or start a business? Or buying for a washing machine on hire purchase?

The difficulty is in striking a balance. It clearly was out of whack when millions of people were able to borrow money to buy property, whose value then fell through the floor taking entire economies with it. Ireland is a classic example - they went on a house-building binge of such proportions that according to a recent estimate by Deutsche bank, it will take 43 years to fill them all...

http://www.planetpropertyblog.co.uk/2012/06/11/irish-over-supply-could-take-43-years-to-fill/

But the answer is not to swing the pendulum so far in the other direction that money supply dries up. That would be devastating for everyone, including Australia.

Pericles, I wonder about the IMF providing more money.
Australia contributed to that fund, but we will have borrowed those
funds perhaps from China.
So how much that was contributed by other countries was borrowed ?
Or is it all pixel money ?

The other worry is if you could not pay your debts and you went to the
bank manager and asked for a loan to pay your debts, what reaction
would you expect ?

>it will take 43 years to fill them all...
They will never fill those houses as the Irish are migrating in a big way.
I just don't see how we can possibly avoid having some of this trouble
land on us. Our pollies seem to be quite content to go merrily along
making promises and undertaking big green projects that may never
see completion.

I am afraid, in more ways than one Greece will/must default.
Like Spain, Ireland, Italy Greece borrowed too much.
It to stay in the ECC would need charity for decades, no lenders want to wait forever.
We should look at the impacts of this true crisis.
America too owes far too much, just maybe we will see a whole new world financial system come from this.
GFC all western country's involved, saw the loss Socialized, tax payers paid.
Profits did not get shared.
Germany, as is standard in our system, Capitalism,prospered on the loss of other country's.
I think the recent election will not change any thing this year, no latter than our summer this deck of cards will fall.
Yet, after the pain some thing far better may come.
As it did after the great depression.
The GFC should have bought about another such depression, it did not this will not.
But in no small part American greed and fraudulent tactics bought many ordinary, folk to their knees, not the perpetrators.

dear mr bell
they 'defaulted'..a long time ago
if your forgiven..the debt..thats default
that triggers underwriting bonds...its hardly..only the beginning

OUG *true default* has not yet taken place.
Pericles all quite true.
However the safety net under Europe is flimsy, it will stand no tests.
I agree we will not be better served by such changes as you highlight.
But suspect you like me, understand we have no say in the matter .
Greece will leave the Euro, harsh and even extreme, but they too will have no choice.
The Gross national product, the debt level, the interest rates they must pay, are only some of the reason.
Germany has both gained wealth and propped up others debt.
It has to insulate its self from the coming fall.
As the new government settles in, that may not be possible, as people see the increasing pain.
Greece will default.

I think you’re right Belly – Greece will default some day and it will have some wide reaching consequences.

I saw an interesting fragment of a show on the telly the other night that was trying to explain how the EU got into this mess & it seemed to make sense. There were a few different elements:

1. The Maastricht Treaty set rules for entry but these rules were bent or broken. For example, Italy had too much debt vs GDP so they did a fiddle with some forward notes and presto they were in (it was thought that there would have been no Euorzone without Italy).

2. Once formed, some countries (like Greece) who previously had a lower credit rating on their pat now had access to cheap debt and they went to town on a borrowing spree.

3. Now that (almost) everyone is working off the same currency they must essentially compete on an equal footing. Sounds fair but if a single entity (like Greece) starts to struggle, they do not have the opportunity to devalue their currency and hence make their exports more attractive price-wise (while maintaining domestic wage parity).

4. Some commentators thought that having such an intimate economic alliance (ie. a common currency) without having mutual governance was fundamentally flawed. The diversity of laws, customs, social and economic structure across the member nations made this unlikely but profoundly at odds with the Eurozone concept.

Some people might say the last point means that the EU / Eurozone is just the first step in Germany’s quest to take over all of Europe and rule it as a single power. Maybe, but I think you’ll find that Germany is not really happy having to bail out the rest of Europe now after spending 20 years sorting out the mess they inherited when they re-merged with East Germany. They are prosperous because they are hard-workers who value quality and fiscal restraint and rather than enjoying the fruits of their labours, they are paying for the ineptitude of others.

Come to think of it, that sounds uncomfortably familiar.

Peter it is true some believe, even conspiracy theorists, Germany wants to/or will rule the whole one day.
I get no joy in saying it would please many, not the nations set to die.
This morning news has it the one hundred billion Euro bail out sees Spain need sixty four billion of it!
The implications of one failing are massive.
And in truth who knows what our own banks may be exposed to.
The American Scam/Fraud derivatives trading, hurt quite a lot of under informed or not at all informed Australians.
Greece will too.
Surely however the pain will see changes for the better?
Greed has no boundary's however.

Peter Mac.
There was one additional point that you may have forgotten.
I also saw that BBC documentary.
After Greece was in the Euro area it had a debt to GDP ratio that was
outside the rules. Goldman Sachs arranged to fiddle some money shifts
with the Greek treasury that hid the shortfall.
The rest of the Euro zone was unaware of the fiddle going on.
It only came to light when the three Euro finance organisations went
to Greece to see why they were in such trouble.

So it easy to see why Germany & France are not keen to give them more money.

bailout for 'greece'
isnt bailing greece out
it bails out..only the german banks

there is a saying

if you owe the bank..a million..you got a problem
if you owe the bank billions..they got the problem

whatever bailout of the bankers you hear of
is just to bailout other bankers

so business bailing out business
the clever thing is how its being done through govt
so their debt falls on you..just as its the workers pensions ..capitalisng the borrowing

whenever you hear bailout
remember whats being bailed out[money from your purse..into some banker..

who leverage your deposit..real cash..
into 8 times more..'on tic/in credit...[debt]
banks dont lend you anything..but what your deposit created

govt/the peepole.. should have that power[it used to]
till bankers got so clever..they not only took the leveraged[fractional reserve lending]..but actually lend govt its own money

Bazz that too is quite right, fraud has played a big role in the whole GFC.
Greed even bigger, if we ran our home budgets, and far too many do, like these country's we would be in real trouble, and some are.
Credit used well, is the very life blood of commerce and productivity, as long as the use is wise and remains linked to ability and intention to re pay.
Ireland grew massively on cash it did not own, and even now may fall more, Spain if it fell could drag the lot down.
Greece would not hurt as much but may start a landslide.
Australians are stuck mid stream, in no danger we can see or even think of, but haveing two years ago, got off the spending train?
We or most of us bank much more now or pay debt, but not every one, homes are still massively over valued, and over engineered.
I just can not see our world, western part of it, continuing to over consume without harm.
And Europe has 26% unemployment in places that is frightening.

we wont be that fine belly
our super..COMPULSORY super has been puffing up the market with that nice COMPULSORY cash injection EVERY PAY DAY*

what people need to do is stop using credit cards
stop paying absurd rates of return..[intrest rates on crdit cards]

they also need to start saviung pennies
cause the same greedy mob that stole the REAL GOLD and REAL SILVER from our coin[that allready stole heavey pennies for light weight cents[before taking even them[NOW plan to get rid of 5 cents]

cause they got more than 5 cents of nickle in em
[but ten twenty are close too[save all your small change

stop using credit card rates
its going to be tough..[govt mightnt own it
[but thanks to howard we the people do][this juliar wants europia to do too

turn us into good natzie's
german workers

you wil not smoke

you will not eat sugar
you will get drunk[ie be the perfect party comunemie]die young drunk[but being a good party loyalist]..working as required dying young..

first it was the feeble/old sick
next the deviants/homo and poles
in time they came for the jew..or the christian...with the bolchovics

its the same same shame
restore traditional values BACXK into the face values of the coin

ROYALISTS SHOUYLD BE UP IN ARMS
at how her face values in qualified coin has become stolen[by inflating supply of paper and cyber credit and promises[held in ya super]

greece bailout
ANY BAILOUT
bailout the insane who sent good money after bad

do what iceland did
set drackma at 3 for one euro
[its true value is 2..and that is let be set by market forces

those who left their cash in greek banks
[the loyal ignorant etc get a cash bonus]

those who took it out
put it into forgeign banks..pay a penalty tax
on any euro trash cash they bring in..[then greece revalues the drackma coinage[back to what it would have been if still valued by silver content[under sovereign right of signorage]

OUG I truly think you do not under stand superannuation.
And who pays it, its benefits, and even in time, its negating the need for borrowing over seas.
As for Greece defaulting, and any impacts super has on it? not sure how you get that.
Been reading international newspapers, some from Greece, the impacts om bailing Greece and Europe out are nearly as bad as not doing it.
So impacts are coming.
Maybe changes too.
England has warned its people of ten years at least hard times, that alone is an impact.
Low growth it self worsens the problem.
Greece will default.

I have seen threads started here that saw the subject burst in to life just weeks after we stopped talking about it.
Before returning to the subject, Steven Myer is extremely good at picking such a subject.
We may have heard of the web bots,making predictions about the future based on what is being said on line Steven can be quite spooky that way.
I except we are not going to look at this, now.
But it will fill our minds and thoughts soon.
Some better than me, at research could frighten us now.
If I could put the debt levels interest owed GDP of say 4 country's on the brink in Europe, then America.
It would be clear to us all, change must come, if not? arjay will one day be proven right.
We just can not go on like this, self preservative.
It will drive those exposed to this debt to drop Greece, soon.

belly..whats to get re super annuation
its return's are less than fixed intrest deposit
LETS IGNORE BOTH ARE BELOW INFLATION[so the best you could hope for at \end of life times..is barely break even[on 10%..of your first wage]

mate think
b diverting 10%..of ALL wages..into JUST one investment[shares]
is putting all our eggs into one basket[thats insane..THE AVERAGE tartuop fails[shares lost]then business runs in cycles

[WHATS to say..when you got to cash youyr super
you find it was 'invested'/..much like our labour political donations[to bailout the big bonus mob[who bought up cheap buggy whip shares[who got huge bonus ;at the time'..then drained off fees/charges and took most of it

before bankers deflated it yet more

its like a pyramid/ponzie sceme
[where the next members pay off the first
but in the end..get nuthing..

or must contribute much more
work more..to get less[but never as much as the first lot got[who got our cash..WEEKLY CASSH SUBSIDY

bah
i get it mate
stil LOOKING FOR PERRIES QUESTION

per'quote..""Can you imagine""yes
going to apply to the Department of Finance for a loan to buy a car?""

no
""to start a business?""

nope
"buying for a washing machine on hire purchase?""

nope
to the lot of em

what other questions?

""But the answer is not to swing the pendulum
so far in the other direction that money supply dries up""

so lets go monetory easing/inflation/hyper inflation
to devalue..our futures still further..

more debt to fix debt
what isnt said..is that
we dont hold the debt..its bankers fault..
their assets dont cover the values THEY PUT ON IT

their debt[their putting more value in
NOT OURS*

follow the money
GET IT BACK

odious debt..for private advantage
willing to kill the worldpthats teason]

germans dont got a word for austerity
SO SHOULD BE FORBIDEN FROM FORCING IT ON ANYONE..

OUG did you ever receive super?
Was it badly invested?
Much of my time at work was spent trying to get Joe and Jane average to understand their super.
Industry super funds are best.
WAY out in front of bank interest over any multi year period.
State super, as it was before I left government work, provided up to 18% interest.
I did very well from it.
My last super fund was no good,I switched to an industry one, we all can, it was always in the top ten.
3 times in 32 years a negative return came.
But in front of me are over all results, by the way taking it for granted this will be the third year.
My over all returns out pace bank interest massively.
Some, too lazy to look, are in poor performing or big fees schemes, no one to blame but them selves.
Some even more lazy, have many small schemes, paying far too much, even emptying some, in fees.
Foolish.
How much OUG is invested in Greece or the European economic community by our super managers?
How do you know?
I fail to see any link worth mentioning.
Please interested super contributors.
Goggle lost super or ask your scheme to, easy as typing your tax file number.
Consolidate them in one, your choice check the fees, know some schemes CHARGE NEAR EVERY DOLLAR to let you leave.
But know too the joy of youth is not forever you WILL NEED EVERY DOLLAR one day.
PS
do not invest in Greece.
PPS sloths can just ask their scheme, it will be done for them.

belly/quote..""ever receive super?""

no
paid a lot
never got it yet
we die well before 65

""Was it badly invested?""

who knows..it was took from our pay
[i now know..yes it is badly invested]

""Much of my time at work..was spent..
trying to get Joe and Jane average to understand their super.""

yes belly[thats what unions are formed to do]
presuming it was good thats great][but recall how howard huges AVOIDED.the big ressionjm[followiong a lol stock tip[from the lift boy][HE KNEW IT WAS TIME TO GET OUT

its a ponzie sceme[follow the latest fad
HUGE commisions..lots of litle loss.till that big one
where you bought govt pigs[set up to take the fall for bankers[who invested BADlie..

mate.[recall life insurance[WHEN your told you coverd for 100 POUNDS}
when you were on 3 quid[that sounded like a fortune

ditto the promise to pay tommoorrow
when they know tomorrow wont come for most of us

skip the commrcial[look at the lie]
govt cant pay us pensions tomorrow[right]
so get super today[BUT mate today govt IS PAYING ..not only for pensions etc[BUT FOR TOMORROWS pensions as well

mate what govt gives you
is nothing to what it gives HIGH INCOME EARNERS*

yes it works[FOR THEM]
allways getting private/firstclass
we get pennies[they get pounds]..stop corperate welfare

middle class can pay their way
govt is there for thye poor weak impoverished..to give them a share of the COMMON WEALTH*.

while were at it[what gives govt the right..to compulsory insure anyone]..third paryty rip off..we dont get any health aid[we dont trust docters..so we got rotten teeth..heart disease and a few cancers]

i pay a fixed third party insurance..COMPULSORY
i go to jail if i dont[but insurance is a nice income cash cow]
enriching the elites..till that one day the run away[go broke get bailout]..but too big to fail

yet we paid for bonus
to get what?

govt got no right to take taxes..via compulsory nuthin
IN FACT SHOULD INSURE us...[automaticly[as a benifit of being an aussie]..not for proffit[pbut there to give you the best available

one class[plus thge upper class[who use only their own money]
plus make a proffit for their shareholders on top

BUT BASIC for everyone[for free]
cause govt is there for us[not capitalist gain]

Actually OUG you could get your super, at least until recent changes, maybe still at 55.
And at the end of working life at any age.
Some withdrawal was possible to purchase a home.
State super paid more than two point five to one in my settlement, one in two and a half out, without the tax break.
My last one did better, I would recommend it as the best investment I ever made.

belly..im of the old school[if i dont got the cash..i dont spend]
i own my home outright[or rather did till the kids put a 300,000 mortgauge on the house i built with my own hands..only..near quarter a century ago

but that now mortgauged house is full of 50 cent and dollar items
[that was my idea of super]..i never put all eggs into one basket

so when govt began taking egggs from my basket
and declared war on my person..i stopped playing their dumb games

you forget..about them loyal many
giving away a bob a week..to the master
its the same scam..all your super..is nothing to what they got..lol for spending it

i got one option[foreign shares or local]
we forgoe a long awaited wage increase..thats usually followed by a consumable price increase[just a bit more than the wage increase[so many new taxes[even howards tax on invisable carbon tax]

they turnmed unions..very gradually step by step
to where the union party..now robs from the workers too
while out and out lying..spinning

and flat out cast ironclad entrapments[to ever more taxes./levies etc..heck just ex lawyer/guilelard introduced over 100 new charges

way to go..lol..you working for da man
buying at the bossmans store..and so much more

Well we sure managed to divert the thread,streets, maybe suburbs away from its intended path.
And OUG I remain unconvinced about your views on superannuation, even that you have an understanding about who invests it and how.
But it will not be as easy to put Greece, the EU, or Americas financial strife in the back ground.
We will all be touched by the impending massive loss.
Wish I could think better sounder banking borrowing rules will result, but greed rules always.
We will re visit this subject, not the feather floating on the pond super, but the defaulting of more than one country.
IF some how that is avoided? as unlikely as that avoidance would be, it may in fact impact even more.
Yesterdays print media, therefore maybe not true, said Greece wants less cuts in jobs,more welfare and less repayments.
Not a good look if it was my money borrowed to help them out.

Belly, almost all super funds are built to incorporate a significant
growth into their structure.
Some funds enable the contributer to proportion their investment
between equities fixed deposits or other investments.
In the current conditions most people are opting for fixed deposits.
I think that is the safest way to go at present.

If everything I read comes true and so far since I first took an
interest in the subject back around 2004 all the predictions have been
spot on. Some predictions made during the 1990s have been correct also.

I don't think that there is much doubt now that growth has ceased,
when looked at as a world average and some are already in contraction.
India has just suffered a very large reduction in growth and China is
slowing also. European growth is less than 1% I read but cannot be
certain about that.
Every commentator is talking about how to fiddle the money to get growth.
Just won't happen.

So just keep it in the bank, and hope that if somerhing goes wrong
that Wayne can issue enough pixel money to cover you.

Bazz profit have stalled, but even bank interest is likely to decrease in this environment.
Look at why I am defending superannuation, OUG is attacking shadows.
It is quite true,over all my time in the work place,paying maximums saw me do extremely well out of super.
I said many,far too many, can not be bothered to even consolidate their many funds.
For those letting some one Else, industry super,plan and invest is best.
Others can run self investing funds, even then some very bright people have had massive loss.
I am putting 80% of my pension fund into high risk!
Quite happy to do it.
But a walk into printed media, eyes open this morning should warn us Greece and Europe are too high a risk.
If I was 20 my investment would be superannuation at maximum levels I could manage, and never spend what you do not have.

as usual..you got a payout[thus love it]
i had the same faith in house[sold plenty till the bust]
but lost it..when some kids came back and said please sell the home[we cant afford it]

so you got nice solar subsidie[thus love greenie stuf
you got the bulk payoff from pension[so you got in at the head of the pyramid[cant concieve others not getting that govt asistance[in a lump]too

but mate that dont fly
[yopur super PAYOUT..is a pitance..ammoung payouts
you would know plenty..who got more govt cash[via also toping up more]

so govt gave you half the payout
and the rest[minus govt lost big time]

count the years you put in
times it by YOUR LAST PAYMENT
take out the topup govt subsidy

your super lost one third
my kids will fall much further
this is all bult on the lie..that govt wont give old age pensions
[yet it pays tommorrows pensions today[with some clever dyke scooping off managment fees/charges]

heck half tax too
so what>..so some mug like you can buy a farm
or invest in shares[blind]im sad one day all your tax free gain[i presume not sitting tax free in a family trust[while collecting full pension]..while the trust pays that extra

you got in early
its a pyramid sceme[as tinme will reveal]
its a ponzue sceme cause your payout[didnt cash in your investment]
but took our pay,ments..for that week[we wont agree mate[but dont be like a clever retard defending huge lies]

govt is subsidising the scam big time
getting your cake[eating mine too]

OUG! you know B&^GER all about super.
The government gave me nothing.
First scheme was 3% government 6% my cash for most of the time.
Second 15% boss 20% me, knowing my age was catching up.
Government? how?
I am leaping over board.
Still vitally interested in the ECC Greece, world finances, the coming defaults or even more interesting massive losses tax payers will pick up.
But every effort I make to get away from super has failed see you in another thread.

bellycos/quote..""The government gave me nothing.""

is very clear

""First scheme was 3% government""

but somehow govt gave nuthin

""6% my cash for most of the time.""

funny how now you got the reverse in higher/but more risky betting
gambling].sorry speculation[no doudt following the 'trends'

tell me belly..do you play the margins
use leveraged borrowing..bet if the shares go up/or down
hold a promise of shares[not actual physical share certificates]

see the market is soo clever
it takes bets...up/or down..paying off egsactly like betting

ok then there was horwards clever SCEME/scam
where we forgo our indexed wage increase[for super most mugs know nothing about[to prop up the sharemarketeers[AND the super providers[cause the baby boomers were getting their nice big fat super..ALL UP FRONY[in cash]

so we ALL got to pay your BABBY BOOMER GENERATION PAYOFFS
what the next time..the y's dont question why..just get their payoff via some new tax SCAM*

you noticed no doudt cypres
asking a bailout...[bank to bankj]..not hoping for a nice govt bond?[not hoping to put the debt..back onto the mugs paying for the rich to live..the life of a high roler...with their share of the poonzie scam[super]..it would be great if the poor could afford more input

but who pays it out
any proffit was given in bonus

""Second 15% boss
20% me,""

ie you didnt get your wage indexation..REMEMBER*
but howard[or who ever..got rid of subsidising it all..IF only up to them.but im sure well beyond

35%..""knowing my age was catching up.""
just as ALL THE OTHER BABY BOOMERS*
all needing cash long gone
so they bailout super
again

""Government? how?""

via the first quote
""First scheme was 3% government""
plus tax deduction's and half tax rates

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/26/business/global/cyprus-becomes-5th-euro-zone-member-to-seek-rescue.html?pagewanted=all
No point in commenting.
Other than to say we here in Australia are not seeing just how bad this is.
And how much worse it will be before, if ever, it is fixed.

Why not default greece, and then stimulate its economy.
Trying to get out of debt by austerity is not working.
Like all defaulters, your credit card is cancelled, and you have to live within your means.
By not defaulting, who are they protecting.
An experiment, to see what the future holds.

579 been to a pub of late?
Not me, was a habit once.
After a while you stop lending to those who do not pay back.
After a while you notice, oh yes we do! the bloke who walks out when its his turn to buy the beers.
No different for country's.
Right now, not the big lenders not those who profited.
But Europe's tax payers are about to fund the bail out.
So it may work, see power and influence never minds using that groups cash.

i wont repeat the same thoughts..on the same thread

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=5223&page=0

note what i said there
greece defaulted
its advisers had indsurance for default

so they[greece].. got a case that bad advice..
.means they dont owe the debt

*odious debt is criminal
that obtained by fraud NEVER has a clear title[must be valueleess to negate the advantage of criminal intention]

that begotten by this huge fraud
is proceeds of crime..[must eventually return to the rightfll owner[the people]

cfriminals wont keep their booty[payoff]
but heck here we got more deefaulted debt[irrecoverable debt

lol

but we can do more ..fancy credit defaults
but its just more debt..over past dead debt..upon debt

the dead leaching the vitality from the living
for the greedy and guitly..or dead corperations

\holding shareholder intrests
in other dead corperation[corpse orations]
but affectivly living off our booty[subverting our rights ]

the dead corepuss having enslaved the living..into austerity
satan must be laughing..lol

I do not see why Greece defaulting has got to do with us.
If it was not for nervous investors we would not know the difference.
Investors getting excited about happenings in Iran that do not happen, forces the price of oil up, and now it is at a low cost.
We are being controlled by a few, is that the 1%

You do actually truly shock me 579!
IF Greece defaults half the ECC may.
The losses, money trade confidence will impact on every country in the world.
In migration or the wish to migrate, from 5 country's at least, we will feel the impacts.
China, has as its biggest trading partners Europe see the impact there?