Hi Arjay,

Seems like I'm the first to get in line :)

So you're banking on the Yanks staging a phony sinking of the Enterprise, in order to start a war with Iran ?

After all, that would be quicker and cheaper than decommissioning an old nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, just drop it into the Persian Gulf.

That's your point ? That the Yanks will destroy their own ship and blame the Iranians, in order to have an excuse to invade Iran, and to what ? force up the price of oil ?

The Russians will be over the moon: up will go their oil price to the EU. Brilliant. Of course, the Chinese will be pretty p!ssed off.

Okay. Here's a bet: it won't happen. What do you reckon ?

If you are right, if it happens this way, I - and probably many other OLO readers - will eat humble pie, re-think all of your conspiracy theories and consider you an incredibly wise political genius.

If it doesn't happen, what will you do ? Yes, perhaps the Yanks are much more devilishly cunning than even you thought, and have merely led some people to think that they were going to sink their own ship, but have some other scheme in the pipeline. Or maybe not.

So a bet:

* If you are right about the Enterprise, many of us acknowledge you as a far-sighted, highly intelligent realist ?

* And if it doesn't happen, then you quietly lick your wounds and take a spectator role for a few weeks, while some of the rest of us crow and cavort and make disparaging remarks about you ?

Let the contest begin !

In any program to develop nuclear weapons 95% of the time and cost are involved in building the infrastructure to enrich uranium to weapons grade, and obtain nuclear fuel rods that can be reprocessed for their plutonium.

That Iran is enriching uranium to 20% where 5% is required for power generation and are going to reprocess the rods themselves would indicate that even if they are not intending to immediately build a weapon, that they want to be in the position to do so at short notice.

Given that Iran is rich in oil and gas, and that nuclear fuel rods can be purchased under strict monitoring directly from Russia, the vast cost of the nuclear enrichment plant (> $100bn) would make the cost of the power generated from one or even 2 power stations about 1000x more expensive than conventional sources.

Either the Iranians are financial morons, or they have an ulterior motive.

As the construction of a basic nuke is very simple, once the Iranians have collected the fissile material, the time to nuclear deployment from a "decision" could be as little as 6 months.

Both the CIA and now MOSSAD say Iran has no nuke program.I think they might know more than you or I Shadow Minister.Isarel has many nukes 200+ and they are no sanctions or weapons inspectors there.

The generally accepted reality is that Iran does not yet have a nuclear weapon capability, but is clearly intent on either developing the capability or getting close enough to be able to develop at fairly short notice.
The world may well have to live with it.
There is no doubt that an attack on Iran by either Israel or the US will result in Iran using its fleet of patrol boats to mine the straits of Hormuz.
This would send the price of oil to at least 200$/barrel, which would plunge the world into depression, given the fragility of the US recovery and the EU mess.
In short, an economic disaster.
More than 60% of Americans, according to credible polls, do not favor a strike.
Much of the current spate of hawkish sentiment is to do with the impending US and Israeli elections. (in the US case, Republicans playing to their far Right base).
Once they're out of the way sanity will prevail.
In the meantime, diplomacy and sanctions may push Iran back to the table, but i would guess probably not.
All meaning that, in the long run, we'll learn to live with a nuclear Iran just as we have learned to live with a nuclear Pakistan, India, Nth Korea, and so on.
Anthony
http://www.observationpoint.com.au

iran has 20/25%
so what
it needs be much more pure[well up into the 90% pure]
to make a bomb..there is no bomb

live withit

this is about endtime nutters
wanting to revenge a two thousand year old fued

something about the maccabies..enslaving some tiny tribe
or some other such insanty...like bringin on some end time judgment day..lol

or resercting the dead back into a war zone

lol

mob of drongoes
why talk up delusional army gedd on

the good god of life
is not served by any death

Well said OUG.Their prejudices preceed any logic or good judgement.This is the tribal mentality that has this planet in such a mess.

I think the USA is building to anarchy.Obama has established a virtual police state and their next revolution will be far more violent than the last.