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The Forum > General Discussion > Understanding China

Understanding China

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Yabby,
Unfortunately it is not just recycling that is the answer, after all
you never get 100% recyclement, oh is that a new word !

Already copper, to take just one, has risen very high in price and is
now becoming money like silver and gold.
Seven billion people and increasing at our level of resource demand is
just beyond availability. We are already in trouble over wood, paper
water and an increasing list of products.
Take coal for instance, world peak coal is expected around 2025 and the
quality in most countries is falling, which increases the tonnage for
the same energy output.
The Chinese are currently using about three times as much coal as the US.

The shale gas in the US is something of a mirage as it needs
continuous drilling due to the short life of the wells, a bit over
one year, and a very steep depletion curve.

It just cannot be done for 7 billion people.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 12 March 2012 4:08:41 PM
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Yabby does talk some sense here.Most of the metal,plastic resources can be recyled.Energy may not be the problem in the near future as technology gets better.Cold fusion is not out of the question.Also hudrogen energy is being experimented by the Japs in cars.Also there is Fusion as in the Sun which is a future prospect.This is what could be worrying the Oil Maggots,who want to control us oil via their monopoly on energy.Hence this could also pushing this rush for war so they can control everything.

Pericles China can can slowly increase domestic consumption and keep their economy expanding.Eventaully the West will be totally broke with a one way system buying from China and pay interest to the debt parasites.If all your money to equal production is created as debt,then the debt eventually will be equal to all the money in your econmy.It is happening right now.You rabbit on about your economic prowess but I see little to impress me.
Posted by Arjay, Monday, 12 March 2012 4:23:44 PM
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China is having manufacturers leaving for India. The cost of labour is rising. $ 200 / month does not do it any more, they want and get $400 / mth. This is causing labour shortages.
Posted by 579, Monday, 12 March 2012 4:33:40 PM
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*Unfortunately it is not just recycling that is the answer, after all
you never get 100% recyclement*

Well no Bazz, because resources are still dirt cheap, in comparison
to say Western labour. If the West can't survive without resources
at giveaway prices, then perhaps the West needs to restructure.
Plenty more could be recycled, if it was worth doing so.

*Already copper, to take just one, has risen very high in price and is
now becoming money like silver and gold.*

Hang on, whoah. Copper is now talked about in dollars a pound rather
then cents per pound. Finally. It was so cheap for so long, that
nobody bothered to establish new mines, but now they are proceeding
in places like Mongolia. But its still not expensive. I just bought
some copper extension lead, which after going through the retail
supply chain gouge, still only costs a dollar a metre. Hardly
unaffordable.

*We are already in trouble over wood, paper*

Well there you go Bazz. The internet does away with all that wood
and paper, your salvation is not far away.

*The shale gas in the US is something of a mirage as it needs
continuous drilling due to the short life of the wells*

Err so what? Either the drilling is worth doing, payed for by the
gas, or it is not. Given that BHP have just invested another 20
billion into shale gas, clearly they think its still profitable as
an energy source. The Chinese are hardly going to thumb their noses
at 27 trillion metres of gas, even if it takes a bit of labour
to get it out.
Posted by Yabby, Monday, 12 March 2012 4:43:41 PM
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Arjay,
Hydrogen has been given away as a carrier for vehicles.
(It is not a fuel but a carrier of energy).
The efficiency is too poor, too much input energy needed for what
appears at the wheels.
A whole string of car companies have had a go at it, BMW, Toyota and
Volvo, probably others. Certainly Mercedes has played with busses but
they have not been financially successful due to the lifetime of the
fuel cells.

Yabby said;
Hang on, whoah. Copper is now talked about in dollars a pound rather
then cents per pound.

Ahhh, Yabby, have you missed that, the Chinese and no doubt others
are buying copper ingots and storing them in wharehouses instead of
buying gold. Cheaper to store and there is a more secure market for
copper and a more stable price with a better growth rate.

Re the natural gas, well a number are going broke because of the
poor price of gas. The shale oil companies are operating at a high
marginal cost because the wells give up their oil very slowly.
As Colin Campbell put it, the shale pores are very small and let the
oil through very slowly.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 12 March 2012 9:18:10 PM
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*Ahhh, Yabby, have you missed that, the Chinese and no doubt others
are buying copper ingots*

No I didn't miss that, Bazz. Buying copper rather the storing
US Dollars, makes perfect sense for the Chinese, or for any other
investor for that matter. For a long time the copper price barely
covered the cost of production, so marginal mines shut down.

The Chinese dilema is that when they need more raw materials, they
push the price up to sometimes crazy levels, so having their own
copper stash will to some extent secure against that.

Yes, the US price of gas at $2.50, is now so low because simply too
much is being produced. Just a few years ago it was around 10$ and
they were talking of importing gas from Australia. Thats all gone
now, they could export the stuff if they had an export terminal, but
building one for gas is not cheap. The point is that its a whole
new resource that we had not allowed for in our energy calculations.

If the Chinese go ahead with their shale gas development, it will
certainly have an effect on all our Australian gas exports that we are planning on doing, certainly on the price, as demand from China
will be nearly zilch.
Posted by Yabby, Monday, 12 March 2012 9:59:16 PM
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