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The Forum > General Discussion > NBN investing in the future?

NBN investing in the future?

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csteele, thanks for the clarification. I was being a bit of a “toady” and having a bit of fun.

As a 45 year veteran of Computers and Communications I do understand (contrary to Belly’s assertion). I have absolutely no problem with the NBN technology; in fact I was present in southern California in 1976 when the first FO “big bundle” was laid. But this was a very long time ago and more modern technologies will inevitably be much more cost effective.

I would be more comfortable seeing a much broader mix of available technologies being used and the copper left in the ground.(copper can run with power at only one end, FO must have both ends powered).we can also put more down a copper wire with today's technology. (tell you a secret, we can put more in the copper than the FO but don't tell anyone, promise)

The main issue for me is one of cost. The Australian taxpayer will pay roughly five times more for our NBN than the nearest cost per user equivalent. Add to this the interest on capital borrowings and the cost will be enough to make your ears bleed, well not yours, but your children’s.

Marketing is also pretty evil. Most users will be completely oversold on capacity needs on the basis of “just in case you wish to download the contents of the entire planet”. In practice there are very few non professionals that will get value for money, organic capacity growth is much fairer and cheaper.

We used to say in our marketing departments every Monday morning. OK what “bunnies” are we looking for this week? It’s just a monumental rip off but hey, its buyer beware.
Posted by spindoc, Friday, 3 June 2011 4:31:09 PM
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@Yuyutsu: physically separate the phone's voice/analog signal from the internet traffic

They aren't physically separated now on DSL. By that I mean they are carried on the same wire, just different using frequencies. If you want to physically separate them you have two incoming lines. The NBN is no different. I presume you could have 2 incoming lines, if you wished.

@Houellebecq: So, better to force people to have it, and take away the $20 option.

Cost wise it isn't much different. The line rental on the fibre connection will remain roughly what you pay for a single copper line now - $24/month. So if you just use voice, you pay $24/month plus whatever phone calls you make.

The twist is, bundled in that minimum $24/month is a 12Mb/sec data allowance. That isn't the case with the copper network. If you want to use your copper line for ADSL your telco will charge your ISP a monthly rental for the equipment that has to be connected at the other end. That is why minimum ADSL plan is $30 or so - they have to pay the fixed rental price on that equipment.

What is really happening is they are giving you a 12Mb/sec data connection, and throwing the voice channel in for free. Like the voice connection if you want to use the data connection you have to pay an ISP to send you the bytes, just as you do now. But they won't be hit with that extra charge for equipment rental.

This becomes clearer when you see the NBN box. It has 6 connectors, which look just like computer network ports. 6 different service providers can connect to those 6 ports. So you can have a different service provider for voice, internet, "cable tv", and so on, just as you do now. You plug internet into one hole and that gets handled by iiNet or whoever, your phone into the phone hole and that gets handled by Optus or whoever, your digital TV line into yet another and that is Foxtel ... and so on.

(con't)
Posted by rstuart, Friday, 3 June 2011 5:22:17 PM
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(cont'd)

To look at it another way, whereas before your copper line could be split into 2 connections - voice and ADSL, that were handled by different companies, your NBN line can be split into 6 connections in a similar way. Using more than the basic phone + 12Mb/s is going to cost money. You can for example pay the NBN an extra $14/month to up that 12Mb/sec to 100Mb/sec. If you add a digital TV channel the NBN is going to charge you some amount to move that extra 6Mb/sec, and the TV company (Foxtel or whoever) is going to want to charge you money to send you the TV shows.

The NBN won't charge you the $24 directly, BTW. If will be levied by one of those service providers, who may add a profit margin. But then that is the same as now. If you use a Naked DSL service, you are in effecting opting to pay your line rental via your ISP, not via your voice provider.

@Yuyutsu: fibre also cannot supply 40V power to the phones as the copper does

True. But they give you (for free) a backup battery for the NBN box which does the same thing. In effect all that has happened is the battery has been moved from the exchange to your premises. The only downside is: you are responsible for the battery from then on, so you have to replace the battery when the time comes.
Posted by rstuart, Friday, 3 June 2011 5:22:20 PM
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Dear Rstuart,

"They aren't physically separated now on DSL. By that I mean they are carried on the same wire, just different using frequencies. If you want to physically separate them you have two incoming lines. The NBN is no different. I presume you could have 2 incoming lines, if you wished."

Indeed they don't normally come physically-separated, but I added that extra switch that does it: I do have just one line, but a splitter-switch cuts that line into two cables before it reaches my house, so no internet-access is possible whatsoever from my phone sockets.
Posted by Yuyutsu, Friday, 3 June 2011 5:31:33 PM
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Csteele,
if this NBN takes say 8 years to fully impliment, assuming it is done right, that means todays 10 year olds will be tomorrows up and comming workers.

Having been acustomed to life with mobiles, do you honestly think they will use a 'land line' based internet, in favour of their mobile simply because it's faster.

Secondly, given the strong hold mobile players are gaining in this market, do you really think they are simply going to 'play dead' once the NBN gets close to a full scale roll out.

In my view the NBN is only really beneficial to a very seletced few, the other useres simply want faster speeds so they can download games, movies etc.

This is one gamble we simply can't afford to take. And, if one lives the the bush and wants faster, better everything, then move!
Posted by rehctub, Friday, 3 June 2011 5:43:14 PM
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rstuart,

I'm sure I heard the wholesale line rental would be around $50 for the NBN, but it appears it's to be $24 plus GST.

If some ISP was still around using the copper network, they could offer $30 at a $10 profit.

But, what if a larger percentage than expected only pays this low cost, not the $50+ type plans? Surely that would put a hole in NBN's viability. I wonder what percentage of subscribers they think will pay more than $30 in their plan. Optimistically estimated I'm sure!

I cant see how they can be viable when they are selling a better product for cheaper, with all the new infrastructure costs. Oh, wait, they have our tax dollars.

And if they aren't making a good profit, our tax dollars will pay again. Nice little earner. Then they can sell it like they plan to in 6 years apparently, and create a whole new private monopoly to replace Telstra, and wash their hands of the whole extortion gig. Maybe they can sell it to Macquarie bank and we can pay airport parking type charges.

As to your 6 different ISPs on the one box, I cant believe people would want 6 bills, and I cant believe ISPs wouldn't give discounts for many services.

BTW: DO you have to let the governmnet have control over your modem technology, and can they block ports without your permission? See, they own your modem, and you are just using it. I don't like that idea, I set my on security and choose my own technology currently.
Posted by Houellebecq, Friday, 3 June 2011 5:51:08 PM
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