Given by Labor's massive loss of support in the election, largely due to an ineffective first term, Julia Gillard has been given a window of opportunity to prove that she can govern effectively. If she succeeds Labor will have a good chance at the next election, if she fails or her government collapses Labor could be banished to the wilderness for a decade.

The strategy of the Coalition in these circumstances is clear. JG must be seen to fail.

Her Achilles heel is the independents. In order to maintain government, she needs both of them not only to stop no confidence votes, but to pass legislation. Legislation that is contrary to the ideals of the independents is unlikely to get through, and they will need to be consulted on every bill.

However, the cost of their political ascendancy is that they had to go against the clear wishes of their electorate who overwhelmingly preferred a Coalition government. This means that for TW and RO to survive the next election, they need to convince their electorate that the benefits outweigh their betrayal.

If the coalition can undermine them in their electorates by publicly discrediting every decision and action they take, the independents can be put in a position where continued support of Labor is political suicide. Bob Brown has already seen this, and has pleaded with Tony Abbott to work together and to stop the attacks on the independents. However, this is unlikely, and the two probably be sailing their electorates into a perfect storm of negative campaigning.

The result is that in order to save their own skins TW and RO will be under extreme pressure to follow a more conservative approach, and Julia Gillard will have to support them to avoid her cobbled together alliance from collapsing. This is not likely to sit well with the Greens.

My guesstimate of the strategy for the next few years is confrontation and obstruction at a federal level, and direct and personal attacks on the independents.

Ata boy SM.

This mealy mouthed sweetness and light 'consensus politics' is a fools paradise. I'd be looking for a consensus too if I was bent over with my hands tied behind my back.

Ooh, ooh , she's such a good negotiator. She's gonna have to be.

I would be surprised if there's not another election announcement within the year. If they make it to the next budget, they'll be doing well, but the next budget will be the true hurdle. And if I was a Liberal back-roomer, that's where my focus of long-term strategy would be directed. A double dissolution leading to a mandate from the people.

Shadow Minister, "My guesstimate of the strategy for the next few years is confrontation and obstruction at a federal level, and direct and personal attacks on the independents."

That should put most people completely off-side and fast.

And there you have it - the reason why people are so fed up with this sort of adversarial politics. It is all about the game and the win.

Sure Oppositions should hold government to account but only when it counts not for some mindless point scoring or empty posturing on nothing topics.

Yep, that is just what we need more of the same.

Dammit Pelican

You beat me to it: More of the same.
"The way forward for the Coalition is confrontation not cooperation"

I was listening to Nick Minchin on the ABC repeatedly referring to Labor as "the enemy".

Sheesh!