Given by Labor's massive loss of support in the election, largely due to an ineffective first term, Julia Gillard has been given a window of opportunity to prove that she can govern effectively. If she succeeds Labor will have a good chance at the next election, if she fails or her government collapses Labor could be banished to the wilderness for a decade.

The strategy of the Coalition in these circumstances is clear. JG must be seen to fail.

Her Achilles heel is the independents. In order to maintain government, she needs both of them not only to stop no confidence votes, but to pass legislation. Legislation that is contrary to the ideals of the independents is unlikely to get through, and they will need to be consulted on every bill.

However, the cost of their political ascendancy is that they had to go against the clear wishes of their electorate who overwhelmingly preferred a Coalition government. This means that for TW and RO to survive the next election, they need to convince their electorate that the benefits outweigh their betrayal.

If the coalition can undermine them in their electorates by publicly discrediting every decision and action they take, the independents can be put in a position where continued support of Labor is political suicide. Bob Brown has already seen this, and has pleaded with Tony Abbott to work together and to stop the attacks on the independents. However, this is unlikely, and the two probably be sailing their electorates into a perfect storm of negative campaigning.

The result is that in order to save their own skins TW and RO will be under extreme pressure to follow a more conservative approach, and Julia Gillard will have to support them to avoid her cobbled together alliance from collapsing. This is not likely to sit well with the Greens.

My guesstimate of the strategy for the next few years is confrontation and obstruction at a federal level, and direct and personal attacks on the independents.

Ata boy SM.

This mealy mouthed sweetness and light 'consensus politics' is a fools paradise. I'd be looking for a consensus too if I was bent over with my hands tied behind my back.

Ooh, ooh , she's such a good negotiator. She's gonna have to be.

I would be surprised if there's not another election announcement within the year. If they make it to the next budget, they'll be doing well, but the next budget will be the true hurdle. And if I was a Liberal back-roomer, that's where my focus of long-term strategy would be directed. A double dissolution leading to a mandate from the people.

Shadow Minister, "My guesstimate of the strategy for the next few years is confrontation and obstruction at a federal level, and direct and personal attacks on the independents."

That should put most people completely off-side and fast.

And there you have it - the reason why people are so fed up with this sort of adversarial politics. It is all about the game and the win.

Sure Oppositions should hold government to account but only when it counts not for some mindless point scoring or empty posturing on nothing topics.

Yep, that is just what we need more of the same.

Dammit Pelican

You beat me to it: More of the same.
"The way forward for the Coalition is confrontation not cooperation"

I was listening to Nick Minchin on the ABC repeatedly referring to Labor as "the enemy".

Sheesh!

Yes Severin, I am shaking in my boots already after hearing Nick Minchin telling the Australian voters how we have allowed a fundamentalist socialist conspiracy with the forming of the Labor/Green alliance.

Sheesh....you gotta love 'em. It is almost as if they have not heard one message that this election demonstrated and if they keep banging their heads on the brick wall or sticking their necks in the sand and shaking their heads 'no, no, no we will not see, we will not see'.

I only hope if the Opposition continues on this path of destructionist thinking the voters will punish them at the next election. But even if they do, methinks denial will still prevail. Old dogs and all that...
:)

Come'on you bunch of Chardonnay sipping socialists, just think back a couple of years and how The Rodent was the enemy.

Oppositions are there to oppose and try to win back government. Why have an opposition that cooperates with things it doesn't believe in.

Are you lot really that fooled by the Gillard consensus rubbish? Seriously? Do you think she wouldn't be sticking the boot in massively if she was on the other side of it? Do you think she'd be talking the same if she had a majority? Come on.

Certainly the only reason that our political parties to exist, is to properly govern so that all the resources at hand are used to obtain a prosperous future for the people of Australia. There is no doubt that this has been furtherist from the minds of those people who have been given the priviledge of being elected into the House of Parliament. Will they continue to prostitute their positions as usual, as they have done over at least the last 40 years, you never know, do you, they may at last grow a bit of respect for this important position and shock all of us by actually trying to make Australia into a very prosperous country again, Just what do you want, or expect?

"Oppositions are there to oppose and try to win back government. Why have an opposition that cooperates with things it doesn't believe in. "

Houlley, why would you think a more consensus approach means cooperating with "things it doesn't believe in."

That is the point of opposing, what is not the point is doing it when there is no real 'opposition'.

pelican,

Do you really see that Julia has 'got the message' like she says, or do you think she's just in a different position to Abbott, and wants to spin her current position of bent over with hands behind her back as a voluntary stance.

I really think you're being one-eyed to think that the Labor party, or Julia, is somehow a bundle of wholesome consensus seeking non-partisan junkies.

I grant you that Howard-light did a good deal of consensus policy before the last election, which is what I don't like to see.

Maybe it's second nature to you latte elites to form a consensus on things you don't believe in. Like Labors asylum seeker policies and new found support for private schools and chaplains.

No I didn't think Julia got the message in entirety and I was equally outraged as my fellow latte sippers about the 'real' Julia 'pretend' Julia fiasco.

It was a crock and goes to show exactly the very little difference between the two tweedles, but you have to pick one of them even if via preferences and the Coalition is the scarier of the two IMO.

All this nonsense about consensus is just sour grapes and I imagine exactly the same Julia conciliatory consensus rhetoric would be coming out of Tony Abbott's mouth if the situation was reversed. The positive side is there is real chance here for parliamentary reform but old wounds and dogmas are going to win over if we are not ever vigilant.

As for Katter - he took the easy way out. Support the Coalition knowing the other two Independents were going to Labor so he still looks good to his Conservative colleagues but does not have to take any responsbility. And would his choice would have been different with Kevin Rudd as PM? He says so, but that just means he is fickle on policy issues. And what happened to the praise heaped on Labor for the improvements in his area re the energy grid etc and the potential of the NBN to improve regional Australia. That is not worthy of hero status for me.

It is bemusing that a man who hasn't even used a computer makes his decision to support Labour on the basis of the greatest un costed white elephant of all time (NBN). To be so deliberately naive was nothing short of deceitful. Windsor had every right to back Labour but to do it so deceitfully because of his grudge with the Nationals was a complete pooping on of his electorate. Why did we have to endure 17 days of deceit in order to make 2 men look like they were seriously trying to negotiate?

To Runner, that was an incredibly inaccurate, silly post. Tony Windsor studied computer programming at university, and chooses to not use a computer now. His staff are computer equipped, and all the necessary computer transactions that a pollie normally does take place. Runner, you've been suckered in by the TABLOIDS.

Tony Windsor has a lengthy history and a great reputation for honesty and integrity. He's a highly intelligent individual, who with honesty and dignity represents his constituency way, way, way above the call of duty. Runner, it takes NO brains to sit in your comfortable chair at your computer and attempt to degrade a decent, honest man.

To everyone else, yes Tony Abbott will continue to abuse, insult and degrade the Labor government. He'll do it because it worked wonders in the months up to the election, and during the election campaign. The Australian people liked hearing the abuse, and more of them voted for the Coalition than Labor. Tony Abbott knows what works; aggression, abuse, constant complaining and whinging. Will it work next time? We'll see.

The independents picked Labor because it gave them more chance of having the power for longer. Tony Windsor admitted as much. They are politicians after all, everyone seems to be forgetting this.

Mr Windsor sounds like a smart cookie, but politically so too. Anyway, it's fun watching him play statesman.

Bob Katter, well, as Julia once said about Mr Latham, some things just cant be measured.

Katter is the one that wants nuttin. He knew the way he was going to go right from the start, and spent 17 days trying to convince the other 2.

TZ52HX
A quote from Windsor
'"I can't even operate a computer. I haven't got one on my desk. But I've got people in here who can," he said.

"I did computer programming at university and they were punch cards then, and I used to be fascinated with linear programming in terms of problem solving. But I'm ignorant now."
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/election/broadband-champ-tony-windsor-cant-even-use-a-computer/story-fn5zm695-1225916116740

At best Windsor was naive. You know as well as I do that the NBN was uncosted. Would 'economic conservatives' really be so stupid as to spend this money uncosted? Why then was Windsor demanding costings from the opposition? He has been caught out. As I said in my last post he was/is perfectly entitled to back Labour. To say that the NBN was a breaker is either extremely naive or dishonest.

I have no idea how honest or dishonest this man is. Obviously his electorate thought a lot of him at the election. The hypocrisy shown here however is glaringly obvious. TZ52HX blindness hides it from him/her.

There could be no better outcome for the Australian public than if the whole damn parliament were unable to pass another law for the next three years.

The Coalition in opposition would true to form by being negating, obstructive and critical.
Tony Abbott is a one trick pony knowing only the politics of division. This is his forte.
So what else is new SM.

In Govt the Coalition spent lots of public money on its own publicity.

Imagine if the Coalition could have had it's sham policy platform (as it did in this election with an $11bn black hole in its costings)
and not have been subjected to the scrutiny by the Independents,
the taxpayer would have been none the wiser that they had supplied
Gov't to such sheisters as the Coalition.
Thankfully the same Independents made the correct decision based upon the information/facts before them,
and in my view made a conscience vote. Inc Katter who is dyed in the wool.

As for the sheer blasé and bravado of anyone (inc yourself SM), that can claim any rights
or justification for the obstruction of the new Alliance Gov't and it's program by the opposition,
they're possibly toying with the patience of a hopefully wiser public.

The Independents, all brave and true it seems "inc Bob Katter" is remarkable, in that it worked the first time (we the voter) have tried it.
I wonder how much traction the Opposition will get from it's same old routine of knocking and obstruction this time around.
It's Liberals against the rest, not just Labor this time.

The New Alliance Govt just has to maintain until Fielding is gone.

It' a wild and crazy idea , but I like it.

If the opposition are looking for reasons why the independents didn't support them it is simple. The very tactics that SM is suggesting. During the negotiations the coalition were abusive, negative, pushy and weighed down by a partner in the nationals that has less support nationally than the Greens. They may have more seats due to old time loyalties in the bush but they have done nothing for the country in the last twenty years. The sooner the rural voters realise they are useless the better, then the nationals might get some spine as they have in WA and act as a truly independent party when in opposition and negotiate a true agreement in government.

SM, at some point it would be maybe nice to think that the Liberals
put the future of the country, above their own short term self
interest.

I know that this is asking alot in politics, but as far as I am concerned,
the liberals need to do a bit of real soul searching.

Let's face it, Tony was prepared to sell his liberal soul to
win, with the 75K$ a year baby subsidy. Hardly liberal ideology.

The liberals could have had a good leader in Costello, if they had
wished, but the party misplayed its hand. Abbot just doesen't
cut it, IMHO.

I'm in Tuckey's old electorate, but I am in fact glad to see the
back of him. He had passed his use by date and everyone knew it
but him.

The liberals may or may not learn from all of this, we shall see.

SM so what is new? Abbott built his whole profile on just that, the very foundations of his victory was confrontation.
Look closely at the senates history.
Labor came to his aid gutless almost childish back downs on ETS refusal to let the light in one other than Rudd's thoughts.
Mining tax in its first silly dreaming insulting plan.
And the victory both sides will look for in a DD election Labor squibbed on.
Now?
Gillard knows ,we see it already, Abbott's Rabbotts are out on the Henny Penny trail armed with fear lies and uncaring rubbish.
A million people we are told voted green in the lower house, at Bob Browns instigation many gave preferences away from Labor.
This Parliament will uncover the real Abbott the real cry baby coalition.
Abbott will not be knifed he with commit Harri Kari his confrontation will be his down fall.
Can we return to your claim you won the two party preferred?
And did my rainbow coalition not win more seats?
I, truly, think form guides say Labor can expect good things as a result of an opposition bound to one plan whimpering.
Gillard [still do not trust her] will govern well, would like her to remove that growth on her shoulder, Simon Crean, creepy bloke concerns me.

SM, spot on. >>if she fails or her government collapses Labor could be banished to the wilderness for a decade.

That's just history repeating its self. Doesn't usually happen in two of every three decades though!

Pelican, my bet is the coalition will do what ever it takes to get an early election, as thier biggest fear is that if labor runs another term there may well be nothing left to salvage. I hope I am wrong, but no one can overlook the past three years.

TZ52HX, >>>Tony Windsor has a lengthy history and a great reputation for honesty and integrity. He's a highly intelligent individual, who with honesty and dignity represents his constituency way, way, way above the call of duty. Runner, it takes NO brains to sit in your comfortable chair at your computer and attempt to degrade a decent, honest man.

His honesty and integrity, along with his repect for his constituency will be well and truely tested when the mining tax raises its ugly head.

Now if we are to believe what you say, then this tax simply will not get past, then what. It's the lifeblood of labor's planed return to surplus.

But hey, don't worry, we will have broardband.

Trouble is, the gov wants NBN to help the bush, yet, on the other hand they want to hurt the miners, the very reason why the bush is thriving. Go figure.

As I have said in a previous post, the ind have shot them selves in the foot and placed themselves in a no win situation.

Don't sign a long lease for your offices guys!

rehctub
I think you are right about the Coalition wanting an early election which does not say much about our democracy if a minority government in consultation with Independents are not given a fair opportunity to govern.

If it goes down that path, and the Coalition is seen as deliberately destructive I can't see how that strategy will help them in another election. The old 'fear' campaign will come out strong no doubt but that just means once again no-one is listening to what the voters want from their representatives in election campaigns. And that is to actually - heaven forbid - know what each party's policies are and the costings. You don't really believe that the Coalition did not want Treasury to cost their policies because of a leak. Or maybe you do?

'You don't really believe that the Coalition did not want Treasury to cost their policies because of a leak. Or maybe you do?'

That game is played every election pelican. Rudd in 2007 did a similar thing. Oppositions do this because they are at a distinct disadvantage.

BTW: There is till no Business case for the NBN.

Houlley
Rudd's argument was that the Opposition is disadvantaged because its costings could only be done by Treasury once an election is called.

Quite a different situation than the distrust distraction used by the Coalition in this election. You can't compare apples with oranges.

This tactic is a misdirection no matter who uses it.

As you will see in this link Rudd's opposition had many policies costed by Treasury.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/17/2093796.htm

Yabby,

The majority of people in Australia believe that the interests of the country are served by getting rid of the Labor government. That Rob and Tony chose to further their own self interest by siding with Labor, does not mean Labor has a mandate.

Given that already there are signs that the NBN costing is going to blow out, and the mining tax is only going to deliver a fraction of what treasury estimated, blocking Labor's frivolous spending and damage to the economy is directly in the country's interest.

Continuously updating the independents constituents of their representative's antics, will pressure them to restrain Labor's more silly policies or even to stop them. While they have the freedom to ignore their electorates now, in a couple of years things will not look nearly as rosy.

pelican,

'He says that practice would change if Labor is elected to government.'

Hahahaha.

BTW Pelican, what do you think of the government using tax payer dollars to fund the Mining Tax adverts and launching their campaign with 4 days to go in order to get the tax payer to pay for as much of their campaign as possible. I think you'd be screaming blue murder if the rodent did that.

I'm no fan of the coalition or Abbott, but I am objective enough to see Labor are no better.

Coalition supporters are biased too, but I really think more often Labor supporters think Labor have some kind of moral superiority. Just listen to Foxy and Severin.

Houllie

I have voted Greens since the inception of the Howard government - goes to show how little you comprehend my posts, especially given you are using the words 'moral superiority' - not exactly your forte given your slathering sycophantic support of any Antiseptic disgorges.

Moral superiority and Houellebecq - har har har har.

You are taking this topic too seriously, Houllie dearest, being about confrontation NOT cooperation - well done, I'm sure Shadow Minister is practically orgasmic over your lack of supporting anything except Antiseptic.

Are you jealous of me or antiseptic?

Belly and some others really are looking so one eyed.
As it stands at the moment it is for the opposition to sit and wait for
the bomb to go off.
The bomb of course is the NBN with its country first decision.
It will be installed in some country towns with wimax or similar to
the remote farms and villages. The costs will escalate, the government
will have to top up the NBN and the farmers that sign up will say,
"I can't see any difference !".
Their fellow farmers will say why sign up ? I will stay with what I have.
The only ones that will sign up will be those on dial up.

Can anyone guess how much it will cost to install a power point in
every house and business premises in Australia ?
Probably a lot more than the electrician's cost to inspect 1,000,000
houses with live aluminium insulation and covered lights and transformers.

No wonder they did not do a business plan. It looks suspiciously like
someone said this is a good idea, do it and do it now !

The NBN will be pink bats on steroids.

Decentralization is a big enough + for optic fibre.

Barry Bazz if you insist that was is and aways will be dumb.
You infer any one who thinks differently to you is blind, or unthinking or uninformed or wrong.
You truly need to get out more.
NBN if you got 12kbits from your phone you would not talk such rubbish.

Hey, Belly notice I said if someone was on dial up they would be pleased.
Very few others will see any difference.

Houllie

In answer to your question:

Neither you nor Antiseptic, I pine for Shadow Minister - can't you read between the lines?

;D

*Given that already there are signs that the NBN costing is going to blow out, and the mining tax is only going to deliver a fraction of what treasury estimated*

SM, so what was the 75k$ for having a baby going to cost? What
would we get in return?

If they sink some cables in the ground, at least we have something
of lasting value, for the spectrum of mobile cannnot cope with all
the potential traffic.

Just a few years of Tony's baby buy, will just about pay for the
frigging thing.

As to the mining tax, I don't have a problem with the one negotiated
between the leading miners and Gillard. Its a compromise and its
a win-win. Its not going to hold up mining, people will benefit
from royalties, its within the budget of the big miners. Kloppers
is no fool. He would not agree to anything silly. The real problem
was the original mining tax and Swan's spin. The whole thing was
draconian.

Bazz 128 klm away from our second biggest city you can only get dial up, or satellite.
I had dial up, 300 houses in nearby villages had no connection for a week after rain.
New cables went past us 15 years ago.
NBN may not make it here ever.
Hills say radio is not a give me, mobiles in some places here work like boat anchors.
NBN will not cost that much but be so very much better.
I am not remote but so many are ,measure the benefits of this by not what you have but what others do not have.
Truth is this ragbag mob would use mother hood as a tool for confrontation.

Abbott today said after hearing Gillards new cabinet these words
<she has rewarded those who deposed Rudd>
Now tell me, gotta laugh haven't you?
Who rewarded Abbott's supporters when he deposed Turnbull?
Tony what is the difference?
And you have no roll to play in who leads our coalition keep yours together.

Already in the NBN business plan, there is a requirement that the government "gift" $27bn of the $43bn cost of the NBN installation to the NBN company, otherwise the NBN company could never even pretend to be financially viable.

With the already looming shortage of people to do the work, the government is looking at having to find up to 20 000 skilled technicians to do the work. As happened with the BER this pushed costs to double the rates they should have been. How does a $40bn blow out sound?

Or are we simply going to ship in cheap labour from overseas?

I ask every OLO poster who has an interest in politics and this country to note this day.
Note Shadow Ministers posts in this thread too.
They are the very shadow of Liberal policy.
Lets be honest my party got a smacking, it earned it.
Gutless fear to take on Rudd.
Back down on ETS
Last minute change of leadership.
The leaks, be assured the leaks spoke the truth,I am not alone in not trusting Gillard Crean, than former minister from the Hunter,they are left overs from Lathams train wreck.
Yet Gillard will reform and govern well, before falling one day to the same faults that got Rudd.
Of far more importance is the policy we saw get Abbott within a breath of victory, lies and fear.
Like frightened rabbits some fled the ALP without looking at the place they ran to.
Australia SM did not put your party in, you no one else in threads you started claim two party preferred was won by you, no and you know it
You defame the Labor coalition yet know your coalition did not win as many seats.
Here now I say substance not lies honesty not fear Abbott must be fair and balanced in past elections time lets some forget past fear and lies not this time.
We will get an NBN we will love it, you trawl for half truths anything to throw like mud at the ALP it is failing bloke.
Remember this day will we look back at it as the start of the uncovering of the very nature of this empty shell of an opposition, I think yes.

Awwww, come on Belly, you have to admit their project management leaves
a lot to be desired.
They had better have learnt something from the Pink Bats and the other disasters to avoid the same in the NBN.

The NBN is a Rolls Royce solution, but hopefully not a gold plated Rolls Royce.

Julia Gillard couldn't even make a decent job of losing the election !

Ah Bazz what am I to do with you?
Too much white noise there bloke not hearing you all that well is the Ariel connected?
Gillard will win public opinion and support, her team too, Abbott, never a chance again.

This morning I read three online news papers before coming here, and wrote and sent 16 work related e mails.
The Australian seemed to support Gillards selection of ministers and looked to be putting as much hope in Bill Shorten as me, our future PM.
Balanced and informative, unlike its election campaign bias.
Sydney Herald?
well its too hard for the toilet wall so lets try to sell it.
Gillard rewards plotters it said, got worse but never asked did Abbott reward his plotters who put him in place.
Plotters? if Abbott and Shadow Minister got it right maybe Hero's not anything else.
Shorten did what every great man would ,worked in the best interests of his party /country.
Now the once Labor daily, yep it was,, the Telegraph, it said sell!
Plotters rewarded,, Rudd rubs it in,, stuff you like to read in the little house out the back before you put the paper to use.
What interesting times we live in.
Is there a future for print media.
If invention takes the place of reporting maybe not I grew out of comic books a long time ago.

More statement or wish lists from Belly.

"Gillard will reform and govern well"

"We will get an NBN we will love it"

How did it go with "Labor will be returned with an increased majority"?

Considering that JG managed to make a right mess of it with the BER, I am not overwhelmed with confidence.

Labor did not win the primary vote, the 2pp vote or the most seats, but has cobbled together 4 of the 5 independents, two of whose electorates strongly oppose Labor, to govern.

In no way have the electorate given her a mandate to govern. Neither did TW or RO's electorates in any let their feelings be hidden about who they felt should govern.

RO had deliberately concealed from his electorate, that he had previously approached NSW Labor for a cabinet post and been rejected. The fall out from this being revealed forced him to turn down the cushy cabinet position that he had requested from JG.

RO's electorate is understandably furious that he lied to them, and if he wishes any chance of retaining his seat, his voting patterns need to reflect the wishes of his electorate, which the liberals will ensure are crystal clear to all.

Thanks yet again Shadow Minister in that post you again highlighted just what you will do to avoid the truth.
Labor still leads the two party preferred did you make a mistake or just over look that truth?
Your coalition did not win as many seats as mine, show me that is not true.
Count your WA and QLD Independents
Count the green and Wilkie with my mob, then include the two ex Nats who chose my team.
Now swallow that lump in your throat, take a breath.
If those two had picked you what would you be saying about them today.
Extraordinary events saw my party still win a mandate.
Do you fear that truth.
Gillard has one great advantage,, she has planned for this every day of her life, she will not fail, I will not trust her but she will worry and concern you greatly.
I got it wrong but you do in almost every post.
Few take anything you say as balanced comment.

The national swing to the LNP was around 1.5%, The swing to the Greens was about 3 times as much and even the percentage increase of informal votes (ie none of the above) was also higher than that 1.5%.

Although they crashed in Queensland and Western Sydney, there were some swings toward Labor in Victoria.

Although it was an overall protest against Labor it can in no way be seen to be a huge vote of confidence for the LNP alternative.

All I can see ahead is obstruction and deliberate instability from Abbott in the hope that they will force another election in the hope of attracting just a few more votes.

Somehow I feel that this may backfire, particularly after Abbotts hollow claims of a "kinder and gentler polity".

The more they shriek and squeal about how bad things are and if the economy stays on track, it will show them up for the arrogant political opportunists they really are.

If Labor manages to get it's campaigning strategy back on track, things may be even more different.

Bring it on.

And people actually believe we have a representative government. All those who were voted into Parliament from the Coalition, Labor, Greens and Independents were voted in to represent best interests not self interest or party interest.

The destructive approach is an insult to the Australian people. We don't vote in Gods we vote in human beings to represent the people's interests. Going in with a kick-arse philosophy even on issues of agreement in the name of "opposition" is a foolhardy and autocratic approach.

Were the Coalition's eyes and ears shut during the whole ridiculous election debacle that unfolded before us. Both parties need to really start hearing and listening to what the voters want - that is more honest government and not an unruly and irrelevant competitive sporting event.

I watched Q&A on TV, and from the attitudes of National Party leader Warren Truss and the Liberal Party's biggest financial donor Clive Palmer, we can be assured that the coalition will do everything in their power to disrupt stable government. It worked in the 6 months before the election and during the election campaign, but I'm pretty sure the Aussie public now realises it for what it is and will not fall for it again. Should the coalition continually disrupt, abuse and block they will be decimated at the next election.

Given Labors assistance, the medias slanted views and reporting Abbott should have walked in.
Given those gutless self serving leaks, just as Gillard started her campaign ,and had a lead in the polls Abbott had it in his hands.
Abbott built his profile on aggressive confrontation.
It worked, in part.
His front bench has already got its teeth into lies half truths fear and is a place of squaller, it truly is.
I believe Gillard will be firm but inclusive, she has turned one thing around, she now can feed from Abbott's failures his confrontation is going to defeat him.
However we are in trouble, not just Labor but Australia, the things like mining tax had been resolved conflict starts here?
DD try please try to get one or the other in control of the lower house, we must not stall change and improvement .

Belly,

I see that Labor has slipped ahead on the 2pp, but I think your crowing is a case of premature congratulation. Given the latest Newspoll, labor's primary vote has slipped even further to about 36% from 38% at the elections.

Also claiming Labor, the greens and the 3 independents as a coalition is a little rich considering that already Wilke and the greens are threatening to vote against labor policies and RO is already showing signs of pressure. Given that labor only has 71 votes in their own right and need all the votes of their "coalition" to get anything done, I see at least a year of nothing, followed by a collapse and new elections.

Labor will then have a record of 4 years of failure which is hardly a winning position.

As of 14/09/2010, the official AEC tally for the Labor party primary vote is 4,711,418 votes, or 37.99% of total votes.

As of 14/09/2010, the official AEC tally for the Liberal Party primary vote is 3,777,324 votes, or 30.46% of total votes.

Petej, a perfect example of Labor spin, & misinformation.

I now start to under stand! You lot like eating bull sh1t.

Ok Hasbeen, instead of using personal abuse, let's see you point out precisely where the figures I quoted are incorrect.

I got the figures directly from the Australian Electoral Commission's Virtual Tally Room. The figures are the official Australian Electoral Commission's figures.

petej the 2 party preferred is the measure we should stick to.
But you travel in deep waters, our Hasbeen is a one eyed conservative.
Ever ready to fabricate a story and rebut the truth.
Not unlike Shadow Minister.
SM your team, not me first bought up the rainbow coalition slur.
It is no less so than yours is, sure the Nats Gutless follow your mob every time but Katter will not and the reborn WA Nat may not.
Now you started threads gloating about your party's two party lead, it has been a fraud for 7 days straight, ALP is in front.
Congrats however for the three wise monkeys view of reality and truth not unexpected you built your whole campaign on a rubbish tip.

Petej,

The liberal party has various branches including the LNP in Queensland etc, and the national party. Lets see if the Brainiac can add them up.

Belly,

Compared to your continuous, vastly partisan mixture of selective truths and pure conjecture you have served up, I have at least tried to stick to the truth.

With respect to the 2pp JG was claiming an electoral mandate based on at the time a nearly 2% lead. This disappeared into negative territory, and even now is about 1/10th of a percent. Claiming a mandate based on this is pathetic, and not even JG tries to, as this may yet reverse again.

What we can expect from the Labor government yet again is to ignore their election promises and throw money around to buy votes.

SM your rhetoric is typical of the born to rule-ite type of thinking that proposes to the Australian public
"that if your not in Gov't then there is something wrong".

Not unlike the tea party conservatives in the U.S that claim they will "restore America" and rely upon the support of the least intelligent voters.
(The same 30%+ who believe Obama is a muslim for example). Restore America from what , too what ?.

Sounds legitimate, but of course in reality, isn't.

Two classic Oz examples "we'll stop the boats" and todays "the true cost of the NBN is being hidden from the public"
by the new un- ethical version of Malcolm Turnbull fresh from exile with his own version of Tony Speak.

Who's hiding the cost of the NBN, the Govt, departments, the people who did all the costings and studies, or a combination of all 3
in a conspiracy to defraud the Australian Taxpayer?.

Pandering, misinformation, and inflaming the fears of the least intelligent members of our community might work once for the Abbott Gang who think they're on a good thing with their rolling critique and believe their buddy Rupert will get them over the line next time,
if they can destabilise the current Govt.

Sadly Sm I cannot remember one piece of legislation implemented by a Coalition Govt in my lifetime that benefited me personally.
But then I'm not from the big end of town.

Not one piece of legislation that couldn't have been done better by someone else,
or best forgotten altogether because it was a product of small town thinking or
ideological dogma. I have a list however SM, of Coalition policy's that have effected me negatively, and still do now.

Belly and petej have copped a lashing from you SM, but as for your last rhetorical claim
"history proves that no one buys votes better than Coalition Gov'ts"

Thinker2,

Don't you see the irony of accusing me something and then doing exactly the same yourself?

Trying to link the liberals to the tea party conservatives would be like linking the Labor party to Stalin. Note the latest Newspoll gave Labor only 34% of the primary vote. Does this make them the lowest common denominator that believe in the NBN fairy tale?

The polls indicated that more than 80% felt that the boats were a problem, which both Labor and the Libs acknowledged. The difference is that the Liberals Pacific solution worked.

Labor in changing the policy said first that they anticipated no great change. Later they blamed it on the 12% increase in refugees world wide, and only after the strong liberal campaign did they admit that the 4000% increase may have been due to their policies.

As for the NBN feasibility review, there has not been a sound financial cost benefit analysis. The existing model relies on a $27bn hand out to the NBN company, and the remaining returns based on unrealistic take up figures and broadband charges that are higher than presently available in the city. The costing figures are obscure and don't mention that they will suddenly have to find an extra 20 000 technicians.

Are the 50% that dumped labor the least intelligent or the big end of town? Make up your mind. Maybe I was in the least intelligent group scared by fiscal incompetence, house fires and dead youths. Maybe your intelligentsia thinks that the end justifies the means?

Shadow Minister, rarely but it has happened you and I have found common ground.
I can be a bit of a smarty in replying to your hugely biased and strange posts.
Know this NEVER have I doubted you intelligence.
I have seen you as,,,,,a master of spin.
Seen an ability to step over the truth to throw sticks and stones at my side.
Your last post,,here has shaken me, no intent to be funny you stray from truth reality and common sense here.
You your side constantly sling junk at the green coalition.
Now you take totally different, yes they vote with you, party's and claim them as your own?
Then jump over the Elephant in the room pretending it is not there or a lie.
Our system is based on two party preferred.
You overlook LABOR leads the two party preferred vote.
You insult my rebutting your untruths.
Abbott is indeed dead ,big statement but.
He gave Turnbull the poisoned chalice, MOST Australians want the NBN.
Most parliamentarians too we will have it.
But you must know confrontation is not going to put Abbott in power if based on dribble like your last post.

Shadow Minister, the National Party of Australia is not a branch of the Liberal Party, as you claimed. I thought everyone knew that. You're simply wrong.

It's a separate, autonomous political party with it's own separate leader. Their leader is Warren Truss. It used to be called the Country Party.

Are the 50% that dumped Labor?
Can you Shadow Minister be fair dinkum now be thinking before posting?
IF 50% dumped Labor they would have about the same seats as the Independents.
Then you quote Labors primary vote not understanding, or is it wanting your readers to understand?
That primary vote compared to your Liberals primary is not bad.
CLEARLY two party preferred is independents and all Labors.
Note mate understand, this was the lowest point for the ALP, YOU COULD NOT unseat my party, it had dumped its key commitments, leader, lost direction,leaked, yet you failed.
It will take more than spin to turn Abbott into a leader he too is at his high water mark, its all down hill from here.

I do see the irony Sm thats why I posted in stronger terms than usual.

And I do think that the Tea Party conservatives and even the French Govt
are displaying a worrying new political style that runs the risk of dragging us
(and even the world perhaps), back from the brink of progress.

I do see parallels in the Abbott style. The banging of the buttons, such as xenophobia
is going on, so much so, that the policy's on both sides of politics are affected.

And I clearly do not understand the biased mania of the reporting of News Ltd newspapers
cannot understand their motives. As is the case in the U.S with Fox News, are a major
concern in a democracy.

As for conjecture and fear mongering, and salivating for the failure of the new Alliance Gov't,
I don't think this serves in our country's best interests SM.

And I certainly don't yearn for the good ole days of a Coalition Gov't.

Belly,

<<<He gave Turnbull the poisoned chalice, MOST Australians want the NBN>>>

Hate to be a Cassandra , but I predict that it’s Stephen Conroy who has the poison chalice.

I’ve got this feeling that before too long we are going to start hearing about how the NBN is over budget ( because someone didn’t factor in all those nasty little costs) , unable to meet its completion timetable, and perhaps, unable to fulfil service standards.

And how popular do you think, it & Stephen, will be at that point?
(Kevin 07 will be able to tell you what happens when projects you champion go off the rails and lose public appeal!)

On the other hand, what Malcolm Turnbull has been handed may turn out to be is a nice little bottle of vintage that will only get more potent and valuable as time goes by … and will be at its best served cold (after the next election!)

Horus Goodonya!
Your post is both a kindness and a relief to me.
Twice you got me, once I put in print some thing half thought out and wrong.
You watched me eat my words.
Then the extraordinary events that snatch near defeat from the jaws of victory saw you win again.
So Goodonya!
Here you display no understanding of this issue and refuse to think like an outback victim of no link or slow links.
Think like our country is compared to others.
NO chance NONE the NBN will not be put in place.
No twisted miss used weapon here just the single policy on Abbott's table confront every thing.
Horus look understand, conservatives will look back on these days as ones of missed opportunity's and the time they came close to wining before Joe Aussie saw the reality they are paper Tigers.

Tony Abbott snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Belly, "NO chance NONE the NBN will not be put in place"

Lets see:
A social engineering project costed on figures from when the GFC was in place, with technicians that are no longer freely (or cheaply) available, with additional costs and requirements added by the independents, and with a costing system that people in the cities are unlikely to take up.

TA was right this is the BER on crack.

I think the electorates of TW and RO would be seriously unhappy if anyone tried to count their votes as 2pp for Labor.

Shadow that is just silly, surely you know that?
Barbed insults are just words.
You yes bloke you would be singing the praises of these two if they went with you.
Yet they are not part of your team nore are they conservatives.
Their electorates put them not your lost tribe in place.
A few seats did not get included in the 2PP only those votes for you or my mob would be counted surely in these seats.
Silly claims from you include 50% of Australian voters turned on Labor.
You claimed the National party as part of the Liberals.
I think you claimed Katter to be both foolish and a hero in recent weeks.
you did claim him as one of yours.
You requested independents vote with you while claiming to have won 2pp.
Then said it does not matter? on finding out the ALP got it not you.
Julie Bishop or Christopher Pyne could not beat your blind rhetoric
COP IT SWEET second spot is as close as you can get and get used to it your party is in the hands of the Australian version of Americas tea party.

Belly,

I love the way you can continue to crow even when Labor has been given the biggest hiding in 50 years and is so battered that it can no longer even govern on its own.

The Shrew even admitted so yesterday to quote "KEY government promises made before the election no longer necessarily apply" because she will have to make so many compromises with the independents that policy will be made up along the way.

She will be held to account for the promises she made, and they, along with the feeble first term performance will be Labor's legacy.

As for you Belly, as in true Labor tradition virtually nothing you said has come to pass, and you have the credibility of gambler crowing that whilst he has lost his shirt, at least he has kept his pants.

SM wrote, "Labor has been given it's biggest hiding in 50 years".

HA HA HA HA HA HA.

Here's the "truth", from the "official" Electoral Commission results:

Labor primary vote 37.99%
Liberal primary vote 30.46%

Labor + Greens primary vote 49.75%
Liberal + NLP + Nationals primary vote 43.31%

Labor 2 party preferred vote 50.12%
Lib/Nat coalition 2 party preferred vote 49.88%

Election result:
Labor won
Libs lost

Now Shadow Minister, I've made 6 separate statements reagading percentage results and 2 separate statements regarding the actual election result. Eight statements in all. All 100% mathematically and factually correct.

EVERY one of those 8 statements show conclusively that the Libs LOST.

So if this Liberal LOSS is "Labors biggest hiding in 50 years", one has to wonder which planet you inhabit.

Thanks for your support jockey.
No joke I backed a horse called,, yes true Shadow Minister in Sydney today.
Have been on it every start this time up it has the form, about 5 2nd places two failures today was the second flop.
Our Shadow has form, but not enough to back him/her.
I'm baffled every time a post like that last of SM appears can it be this poster believes that rot? surely not!
I know nothing about politics SM said so but watch this space Australia will not elect Abbott ever.
Voters gave Labor a flogging but its up from here.
Confrontation turns people off wait for polling a week after our first sitting of Parliament.
SM if you own your namesake give it a rest spell it too good a horse to kill.
Get on run for Nara its next few starts.

Jockey,

To make a mistake once is ignorance. To repeat it is stupidity.

The liberal party, the LNP, the CLP are actually branches of the same party. The nationals and Liberals have an agreed alliance, the greens and Labor do not.

Regurgitating the same drivel proves a point, but not the one you are going for, and puts you in the category with runner.

The 2 party preferred vote showed Labor got more votes than the coalition.

Labor is in government, not the coalition.

Accept the facts shadow minister, and move on.

For how long?

Hilarious! I think we can take SM's post as an admission that the Libs LOST the election. He's finally admitted it. AMAZING!!

Shadow is in pain, it must have hurt getting so close.
And to have refugees from conservatives side put us first hurt.
But you can not plant spuds and expect to harvest pumpkins.
These brave and honest men left the National party for good reasons.
Their electorates went with them.
A pat on the back from them.
IF a chance exists to defame former mates lets do it, that is coalition policy.
CONFRONTATION it will be the driving force in Labors rise again watch the polls SM.

Jockey,

Your conclusions are as amusing to me as they are to you.

Belly,

"these brave and honest men" Upon what do you award them these attributes? I assume their support of Labor is the main requirement.

Ah ha, but you have finally admitted those conclusions are accurate. Yes, you've finally admitted that the Libs LOST.

SM ok I have for some time not thought you believe all you post.
That you often craft things to belittle Labor.
I am on record here, before they took sides saying both are honest,loved in their electorate, and now say also both will take actions I dislike strongly, but they do so, because they think its the right thing.
Brave, a bit of niggling there, see you say they betray there roots and electorates, you seem to think they are lessor men.
I understand they are in fact brave men acting as they see is best for those who put them there.
Your bitterness your thread titles, and uncompromising support for only your side gives you no right to question me.
But here now I challenge you, match my new thread tell us what conservatives did wrong in the last term.
Prove you do not wear blinkers and understand Australian Politics.