The postal votes have shown a strong bias towards the coalition. A few days ago Labor was ahead by 160 000 votes on the 2pp count and using this as a basis for claiming the moral right to govern.

The 2pp count difference has now whittled down to just over 4000 or .04% difference, and with a large number of postal votes outstanding this is likely to translate into a large lead for the coalition by week's end.

The coalition will then trounce Labor on seats, party votes and 2pp votes. Labor will have lost all legitimacy to claim the right to govern.

Apologies for the inaccuracy.

By the time I had finished the post the liberals had already passed Labor.

Quite right SM except on the point of governance. It would appear that no matter what, it will be decided by the three independents.
Oh yes and can you please use appropriate adjectives as "Trounce" implies a commanding and decisive lead. The current situation as at 9:52 sees the liberal party and the national party combined holding a quaint margine of 0.02% in the two party preferred( never worked that one out when a coalition is more than one party) and a slender one seat advantage. It reminds me of that other term that really crawls up me the good old interest rate HIKE of .25 of one percent.

Well it had to come, you got it right Shadow Minister at this point Libs are in front.
An extraordinary election, lost by Labor all by themselves, yet they may still govern.
That fool in the upper house says he would, or maybe would block all Labor bills, no chance of stability there.
Did we hear the latest foolishness from the member for poky demolition? inquiry in to that test world changing stuff that and he has a say too?
Wilkie? well he wants a treasure chest for his own back yard and some lefty stuff no one can give him.
The 3 ex Nationals?honest and trusted but under great presure from slugs grubs and former Friends.
Even those who trusted them and voted for them want control.
Abbott has his difficulty's too, parental leave is middle class welfare.
He could have to eat humble pie on NBN and even ,gee think about it ETS.
This election looks like a poisoned chalice to me no matter who rules.
Lets put Australia first go back to the polls.

It does look like Abbott should be given the opportunity to govern in all fairness and i would imagine that with a couple of concessions the three independents will go with the coalition. They can get away with the NBN by saying they had to do it for the support to govern and fair enough. Those who can not compromise will perish.
Belly, Wilkie has made it clear that he has made no demands rather is making his position clear and wishes to understand clearly where the parties stand so as to make his decision. Yes he wants for his neglected long term labor seat and why not so do we all and the independents have a once in a generation opportunity to do it. Your bitterness toward the Greens and independents shows us you just don't accept the responsibility for labors self destruction. Neither the Greens or the independents will ruin our governments, that will be achieved by the selfishness of the big two, to hold on to power no matter what. It's chicken little Belly.
There is no reason a balance of power government won't work and most likely if the coalition can make it work they will be in power for a long time while labor waits for a messiah like Bob Hawke instead of reforming the party as they never do. New faces same rubbish. It breaks my heart as i can not face years of Abbott and his pontificating on my rights and values while the national infrastructure, health and education crumble around us. We get what we deserve.

It looks increasingly unlikely that Gillard will be able to form a government that has the confidence of the House of Representatives, in which case it seems more probable that we'll have to endure an Abbott minority government.

However, after next July they won't have it all their own way, thanks to the Greens in the Senate :)

Yes, the independents should hurry up to begin the Abbott govt.

There is just one small problem with the two-party preferred vote – it is based on the compulsory preferential voting system, which means that all voters were COMPELLED to declare preferences.

Of course, this just totally flies in the face of what should be the voter’s democratic right to choose to allocate preferences or not.

With such a disgusting oxymoronical system in place, there is just NO WAY that we can talk about the notion of legitimacy to govern based on the outcome of the 2PP vote!

If we had optional preferential voting, then yes, legitimacy to govern could be interpreted from the larger 2PP vote count.

Hey, it should come down to the number of seats…. and NOT be dependent on independents’ decisions as to who to back!

Came a bit of a gutser there SM by end of this days count ALP was back in front.
AND 8 seats did not get in the count how? total who voted for each side surely is the measure?
Now no spite, no prodding I truly THINK THAT that Julie Bishop is the worst female politician in the world/universe see her spite today?
Good grief she is dreadful.

AAAh CJ.. the political megalomania comes out eh... "when WEEE get (balance of) power.. ohhh well show-em"

Well.. please do... dish it out and make lots of enemies... way2go.
I suppose my side of politics would use such an opportunity too, but I think in our case we have history on our side.

Well.. let's just hope the Greens go the way of the ratings for creatures like Keith Olbermann and Rachel Maddow MSNBC.....

"we have not yet begun to fight"

But for your encouragement, the Green long term strategy seems to be working... a checkout chick studying at Latrobe said to me at safeways the other day "ALLL my friends are voting Green"

I managed to save her...and told her I'm available to rehabilitate the rest of Brown's victims, but.. no calls yet.

I have issues with the greens but Boazy?
WHY are eight seats not counted.
The idea surely is the total that in two party preferred all who voted be counted?
Without that the result is as false as Tony Abbott.

Belly,

Compared to Julia Gillard's non stop taunting of the opposition over the last couple of years Julia Bishop is a rank amateur. This triumphal-ism she lost no opportunity to display was probably a greater motivation for TA to shove her overly generous proboscis into the dirt than Labor's incompetence.

As far as the 8 seats not counted for the 2pp, perhaps you would care to read the reasons on the AEC's website, noting that 4 are strongly Labor biased and 4 strongly coalition biased. These principles have been used before, and were not made up recently to bias against Labor.

Depending on which hypothetical criteria you use for preferences the count in the 8 seats could go either way, and whilst you might like to use Bob Brown's criteria which favours Labor, the other versions are equally valid.

Boazy: << the political megalomania comes out eh... "when WEEE get (balance of) power.. ohhh well show-em" >>

Are you channelling the pathetic Steve Fielding, Boazy? You know, the lame duck Fundies First Senator who lost his seat, but threatened to withhold Supply while he still possibly can.

Rumor has it SM Abbott has a problem, his costings may not have gone down too well.
Lets wait and see.
Boazy, who are you channeling?
Fair dinkum I see a big change in your posting from the Boazy David ones and pollycarp time to find another one, this one is a bit Limp is it not?

Belly,

JG going into a coalition with the greens is a huge risk. The Greens got an average polling below 4% and the independents all indicated policies contrary to what JG has just agreed with Bob Brown.

Siding with Labor would do little for Tony Windsor's re election chances considering that ALP and the Greens combined only got 12%.

My personal view is that the 3 are making TA wriggle in order to get the best deal, but by Tuesday, TA will be visiting the GG.

Also Considering that Labor never submitted its costing to treasury at the last election, they are hardly in a position to crow. Add to that the $3bn blow out on the $16bn BER scheme, the huge bill waiting for the insulation program, the $6bn sweetner for health (which still needs the support of WA), I would view Labor's figures as a fantasy.

If you can bag that I will buy it Shadow Minister love my garden and my garden loves that.
Coalition! gotta grin if Abbott gets the 3 ex Nats, he will do a deal with? the greens
Not unlike Labors.
No comment on my warning last night here about Abbott's arithmetics?
Came from your mob bloke.
Not half as silly as the billion dollar hospital.
Bring that pork barrel here bloke, I can find something else to write about for a new 4x4 and small boat, oh swimming pool and air con too think Tony will help?

Belly,

Which pork barrel are you talking about? Julia's or Tony's. A little rich considering that Labor was criticised by the auditor general for pork barrelling.

The offer TA made was up to $1bn based on requirements and the estimates Wilke submitted.

Wilke as an ex green was never expected to join the coalition. The offer made to him was such that he could not pretend to his electorate that Labor offered more.

As for the election costing, perhaps you should actually read the report before commenting, as at least $7bn is based on a worst case scenario by the treasury, and their disclaimer says so.

This will all be irrelevant until such time as the country independents make up their minds, and we find out whether Wilke has backed a winner or a donkey.

UM SM Greens Wilkie and Labor are a coalition, right?
Your claim not mine.
Now who has more seats? votes over all?
more right to govern?
Well done however you did as good a job white washing that fence as you could,not buying it however.

If the independents join TA then again all the metrics will give the right to govern to the libs.

Laura Tingle in her 'Canberra Observed' column this week in the Fin (behind a paywall, unfortunately):

<< There are two possible explanations for how an opposition presenting itself as an alternative government could end up with an $11 billion hole in the cost of its election commitments.

One is that they are liars, the other is that they are clunkheads. Actually there is a third explanation: they are liars and clunkheads.

But whatever the combination, they are not fit to govern. >>

So what are they, Shadow Minister - liars, clunkheads or both?

Andrew Wilkie, as I understood him to state previously, was not going to make any demands and then conduct himself more like a Senator representing Tasmania then as A Member of House of Representatives designate for the federal issues.
As a CONSTITUTIONALIST I would wish all those posting comments first understood what the constitution really stands for.
See also my website http://www.schorel-hlavka.com and my blog at http://www.scribdd.com/InspectorRiakti (various correspondences to the Governor-General included) and you may just learn that who forms government got absolutely nothing to do with the INDPENDENTS, Greens, etc, because the Governor-General alone determines who shall be commissioned regardless of any majority in the House of Representatives.
E. Barton was commissioned to form a government on 26 December 1900, before the federation existed, and so no Parliament either. Learn what the constitution stands for and you all might just realise you are all conned.
Currently there is not a single Member of the House of Representatives as they are all Members of the House of Representatives designate!
Parliament is to vote on bills not to decide who forms government. That is the job of the Governor-General exercising prerogative powers!

CJ,

Apparently not as big clunk heads or liars as the Labor party with an $8bn hole in the mining tax revenue estimate over the first 2 years.

PS, the number stated by the treasury over 4 years was $7bn based on different revenue assumptions and the Labor $2.5bn incompetence contingency, and the other $4bn based on an assumption by treasury that some projects could not be cancelled.