http://www.smh.com.au/national/deal-or-no-deal-the-pms-lips-are-sealed-20100715-10crk.html

The face that Labor is putting on the Julia Gillard ascension is that Julia, loyal to the end reluctantly took up the reins of government after being strongly lobbied by the Labor caucus who engineered this all in the background.

The reality would appear to be that she was fully cognisant of the entire process, and while things were unclear she made a pact With Kevin Rudd for a graceful exit.

However, as soon as it became clear that she had the numbers for the top job all her promises went out the window and she stabbed the PM in the back.

I understand that politics is a brutal business, but I would have wished that her word carried a little weight.

It's just a big business mentally. It's merely an open display of what it means to be successful in careers of power.

SM,
See what happens when you read the popular press....you get distracted by the froth and bubble tsk tsk.

Much as politician want us to focus on personalities the reality is that personalities don't feed or keep the people safe.

Policies can have some influence on that.

JG is getting things done that's important.

How well? that's up to the imperfect judgement of the great unwashed and how manipulated by "The be afraid" and "watch the Birdie" BS distraction of the political advertising and indoctrination.

I have this theory that politics is actually run by the CCC (Clandestine Cabal of Characturists) against the BCCH (Bland Competent Complex Humans). Why? Advertising.

The Liberals would give their back teeth for a 'Boss' like Julia Gillard. Well, at least their image of what she is like. That old attack dog Tony Abbott has gone weak at the knees.

If only she would wear black leather, fishnet stockings and long boots she would be totally IN at a Liberals' conference. Alexander Downer tried, tasteful fishnets and rouge cheeks, but he was too weak and wet.

Any wonder B&D is so common in the nation's capital.

Shadow Minister, at the moment it is just speculation that Gillard had made an agreement with Rudd and then reneged on it.

But surely that is of little consequence. Gillard was asked to be leader by the party heavies that rolled Rudd. She was the obvious choice in the circumstances. How could she refuse?

The really important thing was that Rudd had become a terrible liability for Labor to the extent that unprecedented action was needed to change the leadership or very seriously risk the party going down the gurgler at the next election.

The right action ensued IMO. I don’t think we can be too critical of Gillard for her part in it, but we can be very critical of Rudd for putting Labor in that position.

Shadow Minister sorry its in the bag.
Julia can do every thing wrong but still win.
She has a secrete weapon
Tony Abbott.

Ludwig,

I always suspected that the image that spin that Labor was trying to sell to the public:
- That Rudd was rolled by the back room heavy weights without the knowledge of Julia Gillard.
- That Julia had to be persuaded, wide eyed and blinking, to take the reins of government and save the party,
- That Kevin was a monster and was solely responsible for all the bad past of the Labor government, and now that Julia was in charge, it was all better, and the last few years were in the past.

No one gets to be PM without a ruthless streak, and I felt that the story was a little manufactured.

That it has been raised by the reporter in question, and in the manner it was,would indicate that it is more than just speculation.

I see No problem with Julia's actions, forget her alleged promise.
Look at the failure to act by Rudd on the tumbling of his polling, his mistakes about that tax his followers had given up, she would not have rolled him if the party did not want it.
Spin? Rabbott wanted an of shore solution now he decries one, he wanted no mining tax now he call Gillard to task for not keeping to Rudd's plan.
Spin? Shadow may be Rabbotts script writer it sounds like it .
If you want the truth Rabbott insults voters , he seems to think his sideshow alley tricks and lies are going to work.
They are for Julia.

Belly,

I have no issue with JG getting rid of Rudd. My question is why did Labor feel that they had to spin a fantasy around the issue?

JG scored a coup with a compromise on the super tax, while she gave away a lot, she didn't walk away with nothing. She and Swan then stuffed it up by lying about it. Why on god's earth did they think they could get away with it? The numbers didn't add up right from the start.

Abbott is not calling her out on the compromise, rather he is challenging her as to why Labor feels the electorate is so stupid that they can't handle the truth?

I can understand the need to put a positive spin on things, but to lie?

Irrespective of Abbott's faults, Labor cannot be trusted

SM

>>> My question is why did Labor feel that they had to spin a fantasy around the issue? <<<

For the same reason the Libs spin fantasies every time they have a leadership tussle. For the same reason ANY group spin fantasies about leadership change. I think its called human nature, best to be aware of it, but using it to call the pot black is futile, don't you think?

SM can we talk of Abbott's loyalty to Turnbull?
Or Hockey?
Howard's love of Costello?
Who was it Howard replaced , twice in fact.
You are Julie Bishop are you not?
Sorry just kidding she is better than this spin but not much.
Have a great campaign 5 weeks of dreaming then the night mare of election night.
For me? that night will Be great a fun night.
How long will Abbott last will he get to February?
SM he could well not face the election watch everything he says is from a script and he nearly got that wrong today, fine way to lead to not be trusted to talk off the cuff!

Severin and Belly,

The issue is not that Turnbull or Rudd were deposed, the issue is that Abbott never felt the need to present a fairy tale to the public.

Shadow Minister did you not see Abbott's problems in the last election?
Labor with an increased majority Abbott to be replaced by this time next year.

Belly,

You seem no longer able to argue on the issues and have obviously conceded that the BER was a rort, the Laptops issue was pure waste, etc, and have chosen simply to bleat that Labor is ahead in the polls.

The galaxy poll shows Labor's support slowly dwindling.

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/new-poll-shows-labors-support-slipping-20100718-10fl4.html

Increased majority?

Fat chance.

Loved the post Shadow Minister read todays polls.
Now taking a deep breath ,I have no time for Garret, never did, well his music is ok.
I know he and maybe Rudd did great harm to the insulation program, but so did EVERY SINGLE INSTALLER who did not do his.her job right.
BER cost far too much in too many cases IS IT NOT CLEAR small business men and large ripped us off too, conservative voters most.
Laptops, what failure? you made that up it has problems some kids can not use it maybe because they just can not get it in their heads how to YES sights are blocked thankfully
Now post election, after it is seen this mud throwing is counter productive will your mob pass senate bills?
And just be a part of change instead of a brick wall without a mind?
If you want loyalty buy a dog?
If you want to win buy a leader buy policy's buy a front row forward that has ideas.

Newspoll or Galaxy?

Belly,

I guess that you have finally admitted defeat on the issues, JG has tried to ditch all the Labor policies and pretend to adopt Abbott's.

You and all Labor tragics are hoping that now the spin cycle has started, JG can promise the world and ditch all the promises if she is elected as her predecessor did.

<< JG has tried to ditch all the Labor policies and pretend to adopt Abbott's. >>

Really Shadow Minister?

She’s trying to change some of Rudd’s deplorable mistakes WITHOUT being seen to adopt LNP policies, isn’t she?

I’m sure she doesn’t want to be another me-tooist, but there is only one direction that she can reasonably move on some of the policies that desperately need deRuddification, and that is considerably closer to the LNP position.

She is loathe to accept the Nauru option for an offshore processing centre for one reason only – it would just be too me-tooist for her to tolerate…despite it being the OBVIOUS thing to do, being directly in line with her policy direction, and MUCH better, cheaper and quicker than the East Timor option.

The fear of being seen to adopt Abbott’s (or Howard’s) policies is holding her back from moving forward!

Shadow Minister both you and I know you do not believe that post.
JG is being ALP and taking the mainstream view on most things, we must not plan for a bid Australia.
We must confront boat people [watch the minority trying to shout me down]
She is on the way to victory a lot of that is because your mob will not put progressive policy's our there.
And at last, some one is saying let us spread our population away from city's not overpopulate but put people to work in the bush.

Belly,

Julia Gillard herself said that now there was no fundamental difference between her policy and the coalition on asylum seekers. That is an admission that she is preparing to adopt the pacific solution in all but name.

Do you hold the view Shadow Minister something is wrong with both sides agreeing.
If Labor implements a policy your lost tribe have been screaming for is it wrong?
Is that the way to win an election? are you now throwing a policy over board.
If I was >shuddering<, a conservative I would quote copying is a form of flattery.
And if so I would now be just as concerned as I was at this stage of the 2004 election, it was clear early Latham was,,,well no better than Abbott, just as likely to ,well make a dill out of himself.
Have the grace I did that election day, set up the booth at 6am got the best location, at ten past eight shook the hand of the National both Cap congrats on the impending landslide and went home.
If you want victory get a leader policy's 350 word limit stops that list but get it all together for the election after this you are in with a chance if you do.

Belly,

The fact that the shrew is pushing East Timor in spite of the fact that the strength of opposition to it there means that in spite of her friendship with the president, there is no chance of it going ahead.

This smacks of an election stunt that will be abandoned once the votes have been cast than a serious initiative.

Given labor's complete failure to deliver, there is very little trust.

Thanks again SM your hurt is showing that shrew is solid proof.
You and I understand not much thought is going in to your posts you just trade in barbs and arrows.
And we both know, yes you do, east timor is very likely to be the spot if not back to Howard's old of shore camp, it is going to happen on this both sides agree and that irks you.
Another good day electioneering Abbott's replacement in waiting Big Joe Hockey had wet feet, his foot in it most of the week ,but is showing the form that will make him a real threat in the next Parliament.
He well could win you the one after this lost one.
Do you think in say two weeks Abbott getting caught out being, well Tony Abbott a brave move to install big Joe may take place?
All bets are off it your mob are that brave.
Make your thread title a joke bloke would it not? bigger one I mean.

Belly,

Grammar and spelling would help. I struggle to decipher your burbling.

Most of the East Timorese have been pretty emphatic in their denunciation of the idea. Only the president has been open to discussion. Perhaps you could keep up with the news.

The shrew cannot admit that she completely stuffed it up. If she had simply said she was negotiating, they might have actually competed for the processing station. However, now their hand has been forced, and JG has as much chance of establishing a camp on the moon.

Perhaps you could shed some other light on the attitudes in Timor?

PS debating by simply stating the negative only requires the IQ of a squirrel.

So I am an uneducated squirrel.
Goodonya bloke.
And I need to read more.
East Timor is a different type of place the President is the father of the nation.
You know, your rude hurt shows it, behind the scenes talks before the announcement and after are showing promise East Timor wants the jobs and the money.
A hidden hurt within the Abbott family is [must see the you tube thing] they want Labor to use their old site so they can at least say that is a win after the coming rejection.
Now Shadow may I uneducated as I am tell you a few things,hide your hurt.
Think about how you want to rebut my claims, ask will anyone see me as I am if I constantly provoke but can not take it?
Lash out at me tell me I am dumb but know this with no fear I have told you from day one your team are going to fail.
Abbott is like brittle glass he needs baby sitting and the longer this gos the clearer it will be Joe Hockey would have done better, give us your out come of this election please .
Do not be concerned about your swipe at my education I was bought up partly in Bowral my father and grand fathers home.
Full of over educated call England home people who call their sons Angus and Brangus and daughters Jersey and such.
I understand education is lost on some.

Belly,

I said simply Nay-saying only requires the IQ of a squirrel not that you had the IQ of a squirrel.

Instead of getting huffy, try and have an actual debate. The fact that José Ramos-Horta in your terms is the "father of the nation" seems to carry little weight with his colleagues. As his role is largely symbolic, he would have to persuade the parliamentarians that it was in East Timor's best interests.

JG announcing the processing centre as a done deal, she immediately polarised the parliament, and while she might have had a good chance before the announcement, afterwards, the well was effectively poisoned, and now that parliament has effectively declared its position, it will be extremely difficult to move it.

Short of a miracle East Timor is a no go. If you are privy to any information to the contrary, I would be delighted to hear. Otherwise JG's East Timor version of the Pacific solution is just a bluff to fool the electorate until the 21st of August.

Smooth, slick, sailing in and out of truth very much like the Abbott family Shadow Minister.
However you will forgive me I am sure if I highlight my view your denial is rather different than my view of your last two posts.
I do know a thing or two,let us face it, you have undertaken the task of selling the unsellable.
Claiming any fault even if it never existed in my mob.
Desperately trying to influence public voting and after it fails saying we knew it would.
Think how much better the fractured conservatives would be looking if they had put policy's out from first day in opposition.
Rather than blocking reform and unleashing the rubbish even they do not believe.
Squirrel? no pain bloke winners are grinner's.

Not so smooth Belly,

Disconnected from reality, and refusing to actually answer anything. Much like Julia Gillard.

This is the first government that isn't running on its past record, only on its future promises, because its record is so abysmal.

You got that line from Abbott he used it yesterday.
Shadow minister did you write it for him?
As some on both sides hold their breath, as some on my side think I have gone of too early and too often the result stands.
ALP win big increased majority a real chance.
3 weeks 5 days then we will have 30 minutes to polls closing and by Sunday morning second term ALP.

Belly the election is Labor's to lose, but don't hold your breath, it looks as though the Shrew is starting to lose ground.

The latest report on the Stimulus and BER shows that there was rampant rorting of the money spend, and unchecked pork barrelling of spend, focusing on jobs for mates.

Lets see how this plays out.

Sure Shadow Minister you keep the hope keep the faith I will keep grinning.
Abbott will he repay those tax payer dollars he spent fly around with his book?
Loving it bloke 3 weeks 2 and a bit days.
told you how it would play out plans in place to dump Abbott yet?

Belly,

You seem to be under the misconception that there is any chance of Abbott being replaced.

In April there was a 16 point (58 - 42) split favouring the ALP, and the coalition looked like facing a landslide. In a short span Abbott changed the campaign destroying Rudd and bringing the ALP to the verge of defeat. Given that victory for the coalition was always a remote possibility, a loss is hardly likely to dent his credentials.

Given that JG's preferred PM status has dropped and Labor's lead has already dropped in the last couple of weeks from 55-45 to 52-42, there is every chance that if Labor does win, it will be with a reduced majority, and dependent on the Greens to pass any legislation in senate.

This, combined with forcing JG to abandon much of Labor policy, will be a victory Abbott. If Labor wins, JG can expect 3 years of Abbott's unrelenting focussed attacks.

Shadow Minister like a bet do you?
Once more I gather my thoughts and without fear go on record here.
Julia Gillard will win this election.
Very likely with an increased majority.
Tony Abbott's replacement is Joe Hockey,unless Costello can be bought back.
Abbott will not be leading the Liberals 12 months from today.
Your thoughts?

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/national/shut-up-or-be-shut-out-warns-julia-gillard/story-e6frf7l6-1225898748109

Belly,

It looks like the ALP and the coalition are now neck and neck. Labor being supposedly a shoo in as first term government is stuffing it up royally.

2 Weeks ago 55-45
1 Week ago 52-42
Today 50-50
3 Weeks from now?

Game on.

One Labor PM dead, the next one is wounded and bleeding. Good shooting Tony.

Thanks SM I get a kick out of you.
Knowing you are over optimistic and that my mob are over the line helps.
Abbott should buy that dog.
He will find Hockey no more faithful than he was to Turnbull.
Regards

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/breaking-news/abbott-leads-gillard-in-latest-poll/story-fn3dxity-1225899282954

Coalition now ahead in the polls.

Your predictions are looking a little feeble Belly.

You Shadow Minister like a few others never put a prediction out there.
I understand I may get it wrong, even know the bias is entrenched.
But like a NRL ref the media currently even not letting us vote ALP in Sunday morning polls will put its last editorial up saying vote Labor, LATE PENALTYS to makeup for shameful actions just like the NRL.
We will be returned but some shameful things have been said.
SM get in to me if I am wrong but know I still think Australia will not put Abbott in power .

Belly,

I do make predictions. However, I am reluctant to do so unless I am reasonably certain of the outcome.

I predicted late last year that the boats would become an election issue, because the polling showed that 80% were really concerned. I never predicted Labor would lose, just that their image would be irreparably damaged.

I do not predict based on what I want to happen. I do try to do a detailed political analysis, not only of the policies, but the tactics used in scoring political position.

While not entirely enamoured of Abbott, he has surrounded himself with extremely competent strategists.

As far as bringing back work choices, I would not be worried, as TA was just about the only member of John Howard's cabinet to oppose work choices.

I see many holes and problems in the current ALP government.
Read my posts from hours after Rudd bought about his downfall.
I am unhappy with some policy's some directions and slowing of climate change is one issue.
But like you I do not put wishes or dreams into posts I too study the issues carefully.
Was Tony's opposition to workchoices on paper or on the run comment?
I truly think of the two party's we can not expect to get much done.
But honestly think Gillard will win, in fact Abbott will fail at a time every thing was on his side.
Tony Abbott will not in my view win public support on the day, surely his own words, not ones made up will finish him.
Good foot baller good sports man no leader no chance.