Israel can't let it happen. Full stop. America will never be under rocket threat from Iran because Israel JUST CAN'T let them have that initial capability. The risk is too great and there's WAY too many unknowns. You REALLY don't think some beardy nutter is capable of letting off a nuke...REALLY?. Damn straight they are, they LOVE blowing stuff up, and the bigger the better.

The nuclear disarmament is a prelude to tightening the screws on Iran. When Iran finally has the choice between nukes or its economy it will probably back down.

The existing sanctions are hurting, the proposed ones will cripple its industry.

Libya folded after a decade, under the same pressure.

Dear Shadow Minister,

I'm not sure history supports your assumption. North Korea was not dissuaded and the experience of Pakistan's and its treatment by the US after it had exploded a nuclear weapon would only offer hope to the Iranians.

The only country in recent times that altered its behavior because of sanctions was Iraq and we all know how far that got them.

"O mighty Lord, I pray to you to hasten the emergence of your last repository, the Promised One, that perfect and pure human being, the one that will fill this world with justice and peace."
Thus spake Ahmedinejad to the United Nations in 2005.
http://www.danielpipes.org/3258/the-mystical-menace-of-mahmoud-ahmadinejad
It may be comforting to believe that nobody wants MAD.
But what if one of the major players is simply MAD?
Ahmedinejad has indicated on more than one occasion that he believes himself to be the harbinger of the Mahdi, "the restorer of religion and justice who will rule before the end of the world".
If Ahmedinejad believes we are in the end times and that it is his destiny to prepare the way for the Mahdi, then he would not be constrained by the fear of mutually assured destruction.
With Obama apparently being prepared to countenance a nuclear armed Iran, we should be in for interesting times.

Proxy

One variant of the game of chicken is as follows.

Two cars drive towards each other at high speed. The first driver to veer out of the way is "chicken".

Here is how you win at chicken.

Before the match you turn up apparently intoxicated. You are sipping a clear liquid from a bottle labelled "vodka". You explain to all who care to listen – and especially to your opponent – that your wife was threatening to leave you and take the children with her. Well you couldn't let that happen so this morning you shot them all. You are now looking forward to joining them in the arms of Jesus.

As the two of you leave for your respective cars you yell in a loud voice:

YIPPIE AI YEY, JEEEESUS HERE I COME!

You are still sipping the clear liquid from the bottle labelled "vodka".

If that doesn’t spook your opponent nothing will.

I suspect there is more than a little of that in the posturing of Khameini's front man, Ahmadinejad. Sometimes it pays to pretend a crazy psychopath is in charge.

But I really don't think Khameini and his fellow thugs will risk vaporisation. When it comes to the mullahs who rule Iran don’t think "holy men," think "collection of gangsters in clerical garb".

One thing though.

I think Obama would find it awkward to go into the 2012 election as the president who let the "crazy mullahs" get nukes

Csteele,

There are a few fundamental differences in your examples, North Korea was delayed by sanctions, but with a totalitarian grip on the people Kim could avoid an up rising. The screws were being tightened on Pakistan, but suddenly the west needed an ally against the Taliban.

Iran has only the card of oil to play, it has alienated its neighbours, and it is already suffering from popular discontent.

My personal view is that it is more vulnerable than the other examples you gave. Mr after dinner jacket might have to choose between the nukes and remaining in power.