Channel 9's 'A Current Affair' last night carried the story of Melissa Batten's intention to stand as an independent candidate in the Division of Robertson, Australia's most marginal, at the upcoming Federal elections.

Melissa was a central player in what became the long-running 'Iguanagate' high farce that starred NSW Central Coast MP for Robertson, Belinda Neal (ALP), wife of NSW Legislative Councilor and ALP power broker John Della Bosca, in the role of self-important bully-girl in an altercation over tables at local nightspot 'Iguana Joe's'.

Melissa became to be the first of a number of persons innocently involved in this farce to lose their jobs. She had the misfortune to have been a newly appointed member of Belinda Neal's electorate office staff, and to be present at Iguana Joe's on the night in question. Asked to submit a Statutory Declaration as to how she had seen events unfold, her first statement was considered unhelpful to Ms Neal's cause, and promptly shredded. A second statement, by Melissa's own admission omitting some content that had been in the first, was also shredded. Unable to be both loyal and truthful at the same time, Melissa's usefulness to her erstwhile employer was clearly at an end, and her position untenable.

Melissa had the courage to subsequently publicly admit to being ashamed for having even submitted the second declaration under the pressure of what was presumably the office group-think prevailing. She felt she had let her children down by not upholding her own standards.



I do not profess to know what has encouraged Melissa Batten to become a candidate for Robertson, but I doubt very much that it is sour grapes over the loss of her job. Whatever it is, I think the smartest move the ALP, nationally, could make would be to welcome Melissa Batten's intended candidacy with open arms. Might get a message through where its needed. Robertson electors wouldn't be being deceived as to Melissa's political loyalties, undeserved as they may be.

What do others think?

She's just capitalising on her 15 minutes of fame. Good luck to her.

C J M has it about right, but Robinson ALP electors if you read this.
Today is D day.
Dump day dump Belinda please let her be a warning to those who think they can ride on the back of the party and its members.
A hard seat to hold at any time putting her back as candidate is donating it to Liberals.

Last night's Channel 9 'A Current Affair' reported that this afternoon Belinda Neal faces an ALP pre-selection challenge made by two-time former endorsed candidate for the OLD (then Liberal-held) NSW State Electoral District of Gosford, and university lecturer, Deborah O'Neill.

Belinda Neal has Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's support in this pre-selection tussle. See: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/05/2837280.htm?section=justin

Here is a slightly more expansive report on this pre-selection contest: http://www.smh.com.au/national/neal-to-conquer-a-tough-battle-in-labors-tightest-seat-20100304-plsb.html



Let me make it quite clear at the outset that I am no fan of Belinda Neal. Nor am I a fan of either major party in Australia at the moment, in large measure because of the perceivably political elitist class from which they both seem to insist upon drawing such endorsed candidates as have any real prospects of electoral success, in the end merely rubber-stamping such with the (grudging?) approval of their pressured, ever-diminishing, party memberships. Candidates that in large measure end up representing themselves and their party line to the community at large, rather than the views of the community at large in Parliament.

The irony is that I have to disagree with Belly's recommendation to his fellow ALP members to dump Belinda as endorsed ALP candidate for Robertson. Retaining Belinda's endorsement, in the circumstance of Melissa Batten's announced intended candidacy as an independent for Robertson , in a perverse sort of way may be the only way of the seat being retained by someone who, in a very close election, would in all likelihood support an ALP, rather than Coalition, government if the contest went down to the wire.

I don't think the cognoscenti on either side have any idea of the derision in which Belinda Neal is held throughout the electorate. I suspect very large numbers of voters would just love the opportunity to vote 1, Batten (Ind), then either 2, Neal, ALP; or 2, whoever, Liberal; or 2, whoever, Greens.

Melissa might get up.

With those principles Melissa has no chance in politics.

However her candidacy will effectively torpedo Belinda Niel

It is not often that anyone listens to Forrest Gumpp.

The announcement that Melissa Batten intended being an independent candidate at the upcoming Federal elections may prove to have been an exception. I can recall holding forth immediately after the 'Iguanagate' farce to anybody that would listen that the only way the ALP had any chance of rescuing anything from the debacle would be if it had the wit to dump Belinda in favour of Melissa for its endorsement.

That clearly hasn't, and won't, happen.

It would not surprise me if Melissa Batten was not approached by ALP power brokers to stand for such a pre-selection contest as is now happening, despite her proven and commendable loyalty displayed after having been effectively pressured to bend or conceal the truth in Belinda Neal's interests. She went quietly and with dignity from the job she had been so proud to have been then but newly appointed to, although, I suspect, deeply disillusioned by what she had witnessed.



The thing is, it would appear that the whole point and impact of Melissa's candidacy will evaporate if Belinda Neal is dumped from pre-selection today.



That would leave Melissa standing as an independent against an endorsed ALP candidate, one as far as is known who had little to do with the machinations that saddled both the local ALP membership, and the electorate at large, with Belinda Neal, her sense of entitlement, and her bullying abuse of her public office. In such circumstances I suspect Melissa's sense of propriety would lead her to withdraw from a candidacy she would be otherwise utterly justified and sincere in pursuing.

If Melissa Batten is not going up against Belinda Neal, little advantage can be taken of the motivation of all those across the political spectrum who, perhaps knowing little else of Melissa than that she lost her job for simply trying to do the right thing, would just love the opportunity to deliver a good electoral slap to the bully-girl, and to the NSW ALP right wing machine that foisted Belinda upon them.

Hi Forrest

"The thing is, it would appear that the whole point and impact of Melissa's candidacy will evaporate if Belinda Neal is dumped from pre-selection today."

I tend to agree. If Melissa is going to ride on the coat tails of Belinda Neal's diminishing reputation, and those coat tails are pulled out from under, it will deflate her campaign.

Ultimately people will vote for what Melissa stands for and it is clear she, at least appears, to be for greater honesty in politics given her inner turmoil over the Iguana incident but that does not necessarily make her suitable to represent an electorate.

She may stand a chance with disgruntled ALP voters who are disappointed and/or confused about the ETS, insulation and the green loans programs. Particularly those who feel they could never vote Liberal. As well of course, Belinda Neal's growing unpopularity.

Any potential split in a Labor vote will of course be favourable for the Coalition.

pelican observes:



"... but that does not necessarily make [Melissa
Batten] suitable to represent an electorate."



Perhaps, but I reckon the ultimate definition of suitability to represent an electorate is that of meeting the qualifications required under the Commonwealth Electoral Act to be a candidate, nominating, and then subsequently, after the holding of elections, being declared elected. Such was Belinda Neal's situation after the 2007 Federal elections. Then, in 2008, at Iguana Joe's, she blew it.

With all due respect to Deborah O'Neill, she is both a two-time loser as a candidate at previous State elections covering part of the area of the Federal Division of Robertson, and is, to all accounts, seen to be the recipient of the poisoned chalice of Sussex St (NSW ALP State Executive) tacit support in her pre-selection challenge. I suggest that it is by no means certain that, as a non-sitting-member endorsed candidate, she is likely to be elected at the upcoming elections, whether or not Melissa Batten was to be an independent candidate

Of the three choices between the incumbent, a two-time loser having the security of academic tenure and already effectively on the public payroll, and a young mother who lost the electorate office job she had aspired to after only a few weeks because she would not lie for her boss, which would you think to be more REPRESENTATIVE of the life experience of voters, irrespective of their political loyalties, likely to be encountered on the NSW Central Coast?

Its a no-brainer, isn't it! Its that of the young mother who lost her job! There would be a certain poetic justice meted out if the voters elected her to fill the position of the former boss she had been presumptuously expected to bend the truth to protect, wouldn't there?

The other choices have long each been self-recommended aspirants to political office. Of the political elite, if you will. The safe choice would be one that never sought, nor was ever offerred, endorsement.

Melissa would be a breath of fresh air.

It comes down to how appropriate bullying and intimidation are as part of the culture, and how truthful Melissa's claims are. Personally speaking, I wouldn't support a bully. And if I shared Belly's interest in the NSW ALP, I would be interested in how the executive responds to such behaviour as it would give me an indication of the nature of the party hierarchy.

Dear Forrest,

Not sure about this one.

In one corner we've got one tough, experienced
pollie - Belinda Neal.

In the other - we've got someone who took off
when the going got tough - Melissa Batten.
What has she to offer politically? Will she
have the capability to withstand the pressure
she'll be under in Parliament?
Who put her up to running for office this time
around and why?

Belinda Neal may not be popular in her electorate -
but do we know for certain if she's going to be
the running candidate of the ALP?

I guess we'll have to wait and see how this all
pans out.

I have to agree with Pelican. The mere fact that someone won't lie for their boss is no qualification for a suitable candidate.

Much more than being hohourable, & truthful is required to be a good MP, although it is required in all, if they are to be a good member.

This should, but unfortunately does not, eliminate most members of the legal profession from the list. That it doesn't should perhaps gives us an idea of what to expect from most pollies

This is the URL for a Google search I made using the terms 'Robertson pre-selection' of pages from Australia only:
http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&source=hp&q=Robertson+pre-selection&meta=cr%3DcountryAU&btnG=Google+Search

The second web page listed on the first page of that search result is titled 'Belinda Neal in face-to-face battle with rival for Robertson pre[-selection]'. See: http://express-advocate-wyong.whereilive.com.au/news/story/belinda-neal-in-face-to-face-battle-with-rival-for-robertson-pre-selection/

The Express Advocate is a bi-weekly newspaper circulating on the Central Coast. It has two editions that can have different content to each other: a northern edition for the Wyong area, co-located with much of the Federal Division of Dobell, and a southern edition for the Gosford area, co-located with much of the Federal Division of Robertson. The report in question is dated 9 February 2010.

What is interesting is that this report was, as far as I can determine, only published in the Wyong edition of the Express Advocate, out of area for those to whom the report may have been of topical interest in the Robertson electorate. The actual quotes reported seem a little garbled as they stand, and I would not be surprised if they have been mis-attributed as between the respective Ms' Neal and O'Neill being reported. Be that as it may, the fact that the Express Advocate carried such a then-topical story only in its northern, out-of-area, edition makes me ask whether the Express Advocate was then actively supporting Belinda Neal against any other contender, or was alternatively afraid to publish such an article in the Robertson area lest it offend Ms Neal.

Its hardly what I would call even-handed, let alone courageous, journalism.

Draw your own conclusions as to what motivated such an editorial decision. If it was fear, it might shed some light on claims as to threats allegedly made at the time of the 'Iguanagate' affair.

Couldn't really be fear, could it? Surely not.

"In one corner we've got one tough, experienced
pollie - Belinda Neal.

In the other - we've got someone who took off
when the going got tough - Melissa Batten."

That is an interesting take on things, Foxy. For me, integrity rates highly, tough does not equate to bully, and experienced does not mean coercing people into making false statements to police. Of course, I am assuming that Melissa Batten's claims are true.

Dear Fester,

I fully agree with you.

That's why I said I had reservations about
it all.

We'll have to wait and see, I guess, perhaps
much more information will surface as the
election draws nearer. Or perhaps Belinda
Neal will choose not to run.

Time will possibly sort things out.

Very true, Foxy. Morality is so polarised in politics. The best outcome for the electorate is to choose a candidate who will faithfully represent them. Good luck to them.

I just read that Belinda Neal has lost a preselection contest for the seat of Robertson to a Deborah O'Neill.

I still can't imagine why Kevin Rudd didn't cut Ms Neal off after her disgraceful behaviour in the 'Iguanagate' issue. Having to ask a serving Politician to take anger management classes is like waving a red flag.

It's one thing to find out a politician is no good once they have already won a seat in parliament, but quite another to know what sort of person she is before again voting her back in there!

Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Fester do you agree we all are accountable for our posts here?
That unlike some who defame OLO saying it is a graffiti wall it in fact is a place for considered and informed opinion?
Your reference to NSW branch of the ALP seemingly overlooked the fact Robinson is a federal seat.
And a truth the party machine has far more say, often so, than members.
Last night members spoke.
I am so very happy they did.
We are so much better for it.
But the seat is to be won by conservatives or Labor.
Forrest you know better you are much respected I read every thing you post.
However last night that young Lady's boat sank, it will be a mammoth victory, against the odds, for Labor to win this seat.
It has been used as a plaything by a foolish unpleasant lady.
Who is wed to a great man held back because he loves her.

Yesterday sitting Robertson MP Belinda Neal, ALP, lost a pre-selection contest to Deborah O'Neill by 67 votes to 98, with four votes being recorded as being informal. 177 party members were reported as having attended the pre-selection ballot, so it would appear either eight ballot papers were lost or not counted, or eight abstentions from voting by members who attended, or some combination thereof. For a MSM report that only accounts for 169 of the 177 ballots supposedly issued, see: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/06/2838498.htm



Belly writes:

"However last night that young Lady's [Melissa Batten's] boat sank,
it will be a mammoth victory, against the odds, for Labor to win this seat."



I agree completely with the second line in the quote as I have posted it, and have to agree that in all probability Belly is right in the first line of the quote as I have, hopefully correctly, amplified it.

In my opinion, the best result for the ALP (and, in a parochial sense, for the Central Coast), from the point of view of maximising its chances of forming a government in circumstances of a close 2010 Federal election result, from that pre-selection ballot would have been if Belinda Neal had won by just one vote. Why would this have been so?

Think about it.

So far it seems that such as have thought about this pre-selection contest have focussed entirely on the mirage of candidacies of both Belinda Neal and Melissa Batten together in the same election as acting to 'split the Labor vote'. Under the compulsory preferential voting system that applies in Federal elections, there is no such thing as a 'split' vote. Every voter is in sole control of to which candidate they will give their second (and any subsequent) preference.

It seems not a thought was ever spared as to the effect a concurrent candidacy of Neal and Batten could have had in splitting PRIMARY vote away from a likely near-front-running "conservative" candidate at the upcoming election!

TBC

>>Good riddance to bad rubbish.<<

I agree completely. If the reports are true that Belinda Neal tried to influence local ALP supporters to vote for her by way of her getting hip replacements etc for them quicker, then that's just corruption. And it should be dealt with by the appropriate authorities ijn the system.

Then there's the rough way she treats others. On balance, the right decision has been made. If losing the seat is the price the ALP has to pay, that's not too high a price. A phoenix will eventually rise from the ashes, by way of a better local candidate, and the ALP will be better for it. As long as the overbearing Neal was there, such candidates would have been suffocated at birth.

It would have to be expected that at the 2010 Federal election in Robertson there would be a significant number of swinging voters who, whilst in 2007 voting Labor, would intend voting Liberal no matter who the endorsed ALP candidate happens to be.

Swinging voters could have been pursuaded to deliver an additional electoral message in the process by casting their primary vote, their first preference, for Melissa Batten (Ind), and their second preference for the Coalition candidate for whom they otherwise intended to vote anyway. If Melissa polled like most independent candidates, such primary votes cast for her would end up reallocated to the coalition candidate after her expected exclusion after the first distribution of preferences.

The thing that may have pursuaded intending Coalition voters as well as erstwhile Labor voters to give Melissa their first preferences was that a grudge vote was involved, and Melissa herself had been one of the first innocent victims of the behaviour that gave rise to that grudge.

Melissa, as an independent candidate constituting the only channel for the delivery of popular (poetic?) justice, was something electorally very special.

If unpopular enough with the VOTERS as opposed to the ALP membership, as endorsed ALP candidate, Belinda Neal may have attracted less primary vote than Melissa Batten, but provided all voting 1, Neal, gave Melissa Batten their second preference, the return of a member favouring the formation of a Labor government may have been more assured despite any otherwise expected swing to the Coalition.

So perhaps it can now be seen why a candidacy of Melissa Batten up against Belinda Neal may have been, as an insurance policy at the national level, a very astute move for the ALP to have discretely facilitated, without involving any deception of voters.

Without Belinda Neal as an ongoing target for payback, the chance of directing swinging vote away from the Coalition, and capturing punting Coalition grudge vote, has evaporated.

Nope, no ALP electoral astuteness after all.

Justice denied.

The machine wins.

Unless the pre-selection vote is able to be set aside for some reason as invalid.

Robinson is aways hard, it swings truly.
Belinda rode on the back of Rudd, it truth she never was going to win this seat.
I tread on thin ice, a foot soldier for my ALP[ rightly ashamed of the NSW branch, Belinda never should have got a run.
I truly think her husband is a great man, but she never has had support from me.
Long before the nightclub, long before she won this seat.
She was what she is, a combative trouble looking for an outlet self server.
Those who want evidence do me this favor, look for todays issue of the N S W based Sydney morning Herald.
Look at her eyes in the front page photo as she looks at her opponent.
I rest my case but leave saying this, in NSW we have a leader.
First one from the day Carr left, we however do not have a team, we are lemmings rushing to our cliff.
Those about to take power have not earned it, but we gift rapped and present it to them.
Thanks to those who dislodged this lady, more than rank and file did it, but please consider dumping about twenty more now.
Our party deserves nothing but the best Even in impending defeat, action please pride in party needs restoring.
PS
please except my note, I will be to sick on polling day to do HTV,

I hope she loses.

A report in today's Central Coast Express Advocate claims that Melissa Batten has abandoned her intention to stand as an independent candidate in the division of Robertson at the upcoming Federal elections. She is quoted as saying:

"I was only interested in running if I was
up against Belinda Neal. Now I won't make
any difference. ..."

I think Melissa is quite right to abandon her plans for candidacy. Without Belinda Neal as an endorsed candidate to vote out, Melissa would be just another independent candidate in a probable field of at least three or four of such, plus one or two minor party candidates. She might have had a reasonable chance of retrieving her deposit, but thats probably about all. Why should she give herself the grief?

It would have been interesting to know why poster Beaumonde hoped Melissa would lose should she have stood. So far as I can tell from that user's rather sparse and sporadic 19 post posting history, I get the sense that it was hoped Melissa would lose because her candidacy offerred prospect of denying some primary vote to the Liberal candidate, Darren Jamieson. Which, if that sense is correct, was exactly my point as to there having been, be it ever so briefly, an opportunity for the ALP to display some electoral astuteness in the upcoming contest for Robertson.

Earlier, pelican, Hasbeen, and Foxy questioned Melissa's suitability as a potential representative. Normally they would have been quite right to wish to apply some test as to such possible candidacy, a test analogous to that which is presumed would normally accompany a party endorsement. I suggest that such considerations, in Melissa's sole case, had no relevance whatever. Such tests, if applied at the last-but-one ALP pre-selection, clearly failed even though all the signs were in evidence as to the likelihood of such as eventually happened occurring.

If the voters were to have seen Melissa as the instrument of poetic justice and the means of removal of Belinda Neal, any assessment as to Melissa's suitability was irrelevant.

Forrest I too think she is better not running.
And I understand it is most unlikely she did not wrongly suffer at Neal's hands, Dela Bosca does ,he continues to be a victim, of his wife.
That poster, well in truth the forum is used by many practicing politicians.
Some ,quite a few in their own name.
I would truly say if Labor wins it will be a miracle good candidate but a much tainted party.