The Rudd Government may turn out to be a one-term government but if you could, who would you prefer as PM in either party.

Do you have any predictions?

What is your pick for best and worst choice for leader?

My choices for PM/leader are:

ALP - Best choices Julia Gillard or Lindsay Tanner. Worst choices Craig Emerson or Mark Arbib.

Coalition: Best choice Joe Hockey Worst choices: Christopher Pyne, Nick Minchin, Eric Abetz or George Brandis.

Predictions:

It will be a close tie but ALP will win the next election with a reduced majority. The election will be later rather than sooner given problems with the insulation/green loans programs and a better sell of the ETS and a drop in the polls.

Greg Combet will eventually become leader of the ALP and a future PM.

If the ALP win, Joe Hockey will become Leader of the Opposition, not sure if he will ever be a PM.

If the ALP loses, Kevin Rudd will be given an Ambassadorship to somewhere cushy like London, Washington or Europe within the next five years and if he wins, it will be within two years of losing a future election.

Anyone else willing to take a stab at the future? Don't have to be an expert, I am certainly not.

I'm having a little difficulty with politics in Australia at the moment. I'm finding myself fairly disillusioned and uninspired by Labor - perhaps the euphoria of Howard's demise is wearing off. Something about Gillard disturbs me - perhaps her style is a little too Orwellian for me. I do like Greg Combet and think he will climb the ladder relatively quickly.
On the other side, Abbott and his recycled Howard clones I find very disturbing. Hockey appears to be the only reasonable choice for me. Funnily enough, I sort of warmed to Malcolm Turnbull - even after the Ozcar debacle.

The Rudd government will win another term.
I have been through this field before, the deep mud , most being thrown by the opposition.
The spotlight on a mixture of idiotic mistakes from Labor, and just plan lies and fear.
I do not think Gillard could lead, once from the left, have no doubt she was, she is apparently unsure what group she belongs to.
Once, well a week ago, Bill Shorten in my view was bound for the top job, he looked very unsure of himself in a lonely late night speech to not much more than Parliament staff the other day.
But if he gets it back together, unties the ropes others put on men of promise he can get to the top.
Greg Combet is pure class,Mr fix it because he can, and in comparison to Garrett will be very good.
I am not retracting my view Garrett was a bad pick, but never should have taken all the blame.
He however will be sidelined again his is not parliamentary material.
Given time, not much of it, the real Tony Abbott will shine and be seen.
That will make Rudd's task a push over.

I'm not very impressed by Rudd, nor Gillard lately. Tanner's very bright, but too far to the right for me. I think that if the ALP scrape back in, they should ditch Rudd in favour of Combet.

As for the Opposition - Turnbull's obviously the best but he's apparently too intelligent for the current crop of Tories. Hockey's about the only other one of them who shows any real possibility of being a leader for all Australians, but he seems to be too good a bloke to be able to gain the support of the viper's nest that is the current Opposition.

The best result would be for the ALP to win the House of Reps with a reduced majority, the Greens to pick up some seats in the lower House and also to gain the balance of power in the Senate.

I doubt it will happen, though.

Dear Pelly,

My predictions are:

The ALP will win the next election.
They deserve a second term in office.
People realize that in dealing with the
global recession changes had to be made.
And the Government through its actions in
the economy, kept this economy out of recession.

Emissions trading and action on climate change
will not disappear. These will be huge issues
in the coming election. As I said in other posts -
how about we send those who don't believe in
climate change to live on one of the fast
disappearing Pacific Islands and see if tree planting
is going to help?

The current team in Opposition can't be taken
seriously. Fear and reaction is their agenda.
All they offer is condemnation and
attack - similar to our resident Mr Tapp.
The voters are too pragmatic to pay any attention
to this sort of flim flam.

The frontbench of the Opposition is made up of
"yesterday's" people. Not even Joe Hockey is
believable any more.

Malcolm Turnbull should either run as an Independent,
or start his own Party. He'd run rings around the
current mob in Opposition.

I think the predictions are pretty much correct.
Sadly, the ONLY factor that will weigh into the election would be how poorly Labor are governing the country VS how unpalatable the Liberal opposition leaders and frontbenchers are (esp without Hockey- who is popular for reasons I simply don't understand)- the least-horrible of the two choices will win.

Personally, I think this is a PERFECT opportunity to encourage more people to vote for other parties and independents- as the stakes surely can't get any LOWER as far as letting either Liberal or Labor claw themselves a victory on a two-party preferred basis, right?

I'll be doing just that- researching candidates and rating best to worst, purely on my democratic principles alone (it takes only five minutes). Liberal and Labor will be at the bottom.

Hazza, agreed. I am hoping Canberra will field a few Independents and we do have some good Greens. NSW voters were in the same place last election, the choice between woeful incumbents or hapless opposition.

CJ I reckon Turnbull will not stand this election, he is an entrepreneur and probably has numerous options. I could be wrong, he may choose to wait for Abbott and Joyce to muck things up a bit before swaying back into the fray.

The ALP could learn a bit from the Libs about being a bit more real at least with the Libs you know what you are getting and can judge on that account. Joe Hockey has dropped his characteristic (extreme) evasiveness of late and that will hold him in good stead for later if he can keep it up.

Belly, the dirt is being thrown around by the Opposition only because the Government has given them the ammunition. Abbott is getting a bit OTT though and the public will either forgive and allow a few failures (like Foxy has) or they vote with the government because they will be overdosed on the muck by the opposition.

Overt muck-raking does not work if it becomes the focus of opposition. Policies and ideas are what people want to hear except for those thinking only of their wallets. Don't think there will be much left for cash splashes at the next Budget let alone the next election, so maybe the pork barrelling will be at a minimum.

The group of people I work with all voted for Rudd last election and were glad to see the end of Howard, but all without exception (bar myself) will be voting Libs this time around. They have had enough of the Rudd Government's lack of understanding around implementation and service delivery and budget cuts that make real impact on those least empowered to effect changes.

Despite this I do believe the Libs are in with a chance but Rudd will most likely make it over the line.

Bit like calling a race isn't it.

Too right Pelican; I think that's probably the positive about parties that try too hard to copy each other and move towards the so-called "center"- any contrasting stances (eg immigration, workplace relations, secularism in government and freedoms) that might force voters to simply vote for the other party just to keep the other from doing too much damage are completely neutralized.
Lots of people I imagine would still be suspicious of a third-party or independent- but it means more will see no reason not to check out the other parties- seeing virtually every policy (or popular and unpopular stance alike) will be more or less carried by either major party.

Malcolm Turnbull- wouldn't really get my hopes up- he's good at making whichever opposing side look silly in an argument (or else talk over them) but I'm not so sure he'd have any interest in doing a sincere job if he were PM- and his history while in government wasn't very impressive.

>>As for the Opposition - Turnbull's obviously the best but he's apparently too intelligent for the current crop of Tories.<<

What about this possibility. Abbott loses the 2010 election and despite Turnbull being the smartest candidate, the conservative element in the party totally blocks him. Turnbull cools his heels waiting for an opportunity while Rudd bids farewell to his underlings in 2012, a year out from the election after he sees that things can only get terminally bad for him and, anyway, the world of international politics beckons. By then Gillard is looking shaky, Combet won't take the job because he's too nice a guy and Tanner isn't quite up to being leader.

Nature abhors a vacancy, so what about enter stage right Malcolm? Of all the politicians in the Liberals, he'd be about the only one who could fit into Labor. And he looks to have a very good reason to be disillusioned with his current party.

I could be off with the Martians though.

RobP,
What a delicious scenario....Should that be "enter stage left"...or "stage centre"?

Not a prediction, but wouldn't it be lovely, in the words of the song, if labor drafted Turnbull.

With him & Rudd we would have quite a sight.

Just imagine these 2 arrogant, vindictive, spiteful, truely horrible people together. The view of them both almost expolding, trying to keep their bile down would be great fun.

Impossible, I know, to have this pair in the same party, at the same time, but I agree with Rob, he's in the wrong party. Someone that dumb, that he can believe in AGW, should have joined the other one.

Poirot,

Turnbull's got a number of positions on the left, the right and the centre. Left on asylum policy and homeless strategies etc, Centre on most things, and Right on the operation of markets. Being an ambitious character, I'd back him to appear on stage wherever there happens to be an opening in the curtain.

(NB: Everything's so mixed up wrt to Left and Right now that I don't think Joe Public cares too much about labels; they're only interested in outcomes.)

RobP
This possibility was humourously put to Turnbull on one epsisode of Q&A recently but he refuted the possibility - although not too vigorously if I remember correctly. Certainly his political leanings appear to suit either side of politics given the ALP's rush to the Centre and the Coalitions rush towards the Right, particularly on economic policy.

One sometimes wonders if some members of the ALP should swap camps - Craig Emerson and Chris Bowen spring to mind.

In these days where the differene is negligible loyalty except for a few diehards is probably not as relevant - one amorphous jellylike mass really.

Rudd will welcome Turnbull to the Labor party after the next election win by Labor, and by the election after that Turnbull will be leader of the Labour party opposing Peter Costello as coalition leader.

Well, if only politics would be that interesting.

For this election all I can hope for is another Tampa type issue, with the Rudd government showering itself in as much glory as the Howard government did.

Hockey looks too much like the Aussie Home Loans guy, and everyone knows from bitter experience that fat jovial nice guys don't get elected.

At the end of it all, Foxy will still not realise that Rudd is every bit the same cynical politician as Howard.

Pelican

I agree with much of your analysis; Labor to be returned with reduced majority. Abbott to resign after losing the election (I live in a state of eternal hope). The Greens to more fully replace the Democrats in keeping the bastards honest and gain seats.

Turnbull? Interesting, intelligent man who lost a great deal of favour with the Gordon Grech affair, however if he can learn from his mistakes which I believe he has. His commitment to sustainable technology is commendable, then he is not to be discounted.

Gillard has started to disappoint - too much rhetoric not enough content.

Tanner, whip-lash smart, engaging speaker - a possible contender for PM.

Rudd is working himself into early retirement, he is shrewd and cunning but pales in comparison to Howard. Did Howard EVER apologise for anything?

Australians have continued to benefit from the Howard/Costello economic management. Despite more incompetence and waste than even Gough could manage the pain won't hit for a while. I suspect the gullible Aussie public will give Mr Rudd another term. Rudd is smart enough to back off now from the exposed gw fantasy. By the end of his second term the ambitious Gillard will take over (just a prediction). The pain of the incompetence and wasteful Government will be more evident then so the electoral mood will have changed. Unlike Obama, Rudd with the help of his fans in the media(and especially the national broadcasters) will scape home. The media will continue to demonize Abbott by asking him devious questions and then mock him for his answers. These left wing nuts are to devious to ask the same of the Government. Unfortunately my children and grandchildren will be paying heaps for this Governments lack of accountability and responsibility. The Americans certainly seem to have caught on to Obama's spin much quicker than our apathetic public.

Ah, but Severin, compared to Ruddy, did Howard ever have anything to apologise about?

My prediction is, that which ever party weasels into the treasury benches, nothing much will change. Business will still have unwarranted, disproportionate, perversion powers over government and thereby, democracy .

Leadership choices? someone that can lead in the countries interests and is competent to do so, not for party power, personal aggrandisement or for minority interests.

Sadly, that precludes almost all the current parliamentary damaged crop.
If, I wasn't a humanist and concerned about the environment, I'd take a leaf from Shakespeare with a slight change.
"first, execute all the party politicians."

So there! :-)

Exy, my father-in-law, before he died, told me his favourite joke.

It went, "Help fretilise Australia, bury a greenie today".

I can't see why it wouldn't apply, just as well, to politicians.

I'm sure your ex-father in law made just as good fertiliser as any greenie, Hasbeen - possibly even more so, since he was evidently full of crap.

Hasbeen

Were you asleep during the Howard era?

Peter Reith $50,000 Telecard affair, PM John Howard determined to ride out the controversy.

And Reith's handling of 1998 Stevedoring Dispute; thugs trained in Dubai

Seiv X

Children Overboard

Never ever GST

No mandate for Workchoices

No weapons of mass destruction in Iraq

Cornelia Rau and other innocents harmed by draconian immigration rules.

Australian WheatBoard bribes to Hussein

Dr. Jayant Patel's false arrest.

Banning Philip Nietsche's book on voluntary euthanasia.

Hasbeen

Glad you asked.

And just for the record, I have voted Greens for the past 15 years, and still see no reason to change for the next election

CJ
Human poo is not as good as animal poo because of the pathogens. If there is too much human excrement the soil might become toxic. :)

So true about the poo.

:-)

I meant bullcrap actually, but I take pelican's point :)

Runner sez: "Australians have continued to benefit from the Howard/Costello economic management"

Yup. Having been assured that the evidence about weapons of mass destruction, we are (still) in a war with no justification. Wasteful of *lives*. In a nation that is not the one that harboured the culprits of the initiating incident. In a nation whose leader had maintained order despite being thouroughly criticised by "lefties" at the time.

If *I* could somehow convince Australia to go to war on a pretext of something untrue, something that it was my professional duty to investigate first, *I* would be up for good old-fashioned treason under the *old* rules. *even* if it made money.

I would rather the incompetent to those merely economically competent but dishonest.

Rusty