So Iran has the know-how to make WMDs (See http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE59228E20091003)

Does it matter?

I would prefer a world in which Khameni & Co did not possess nukes; but I doubt they'll ever use them. To do so would be to court their own destruction. Corrupt Ayatollahs may be happy to send young kids on suicide missions but I think they draw the line at having their own backsides vaporised. WMDs may be nice toys but they are unlikely to be USED.

More interesting is the spread of the technology to make smart bombs, precision guided munitions and other "weapons of pinpoint destruction" or WPD.

In the 1980s the CIA supplied the Afghan Mujahedin fighting the Soviets with stinger guided anti-aircraft missiles.

See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIM-92_Stinger

The stinger helped the Mujahedin win the war which probably hastened the collapse of the Soviet Union.

By today's standards the stinger was primitive. Today Western and western armed forces are able to pick off individuals from drone aircraft. The leader of the Pakistani Taleban, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed by such an American drone strike.

However the technology to manufacture WPDs is spreading. Long before terrorist organisations possess WMDs they are likely to acquire WPDs.

Consider some specifics. Hizbullah and Hamas have rained thousand of rockets on Israel. Most of these have done little damage. Hizbullah and Hamas had the munitions but lacked the precision guidance systems.

Suppose the two organisations acquire the capability of pin-point targeting. Instead of most missiles landing harmlessly in fields they could be aimed at factories, oil refineries, administrative buildings and the Parliament building.

Suppose the Taleban in Afghanistan were able to target US bases or destroy US aircraft? Suppose the Pakistan Taleban acquired the capability of targeting the Pakistani Army's prepared positions.

Unlike WMDs, WPDs are USED. Countries such as Iran have the technology to develop them and put them in the hands of its proxies. They are relatively cheap to manufacture.

WPDs are a bigger issue than WMDs.

And then there's robosnake:

See: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3uGAvbM9eo

A few additional points

I have always been sceptical of the ability of terrorist organisations to develop nukes. But developing WPDs is almost within reach of hobbyists. Here are some additional scenarios:

--A "white militia" group develops a missile capable of shooting down the Marine One helicopter as it lands on the White House Lawn.

--Later such militia groups could develop a missile capable of homing in on the oval office windows.

--Imagine how the civil war in Sri Lanka may have played out had the Tamil Tigers possessed WPDs?

--Robosnakes will certainly be within the capabilities of hobbyists within a few years. How do we defend against swarms of robosnakes armed with C4?

--Current robots are not entirely autonomous. In future they will be. Imagine a swarm of robosnakes that are able to operate autonomously. If you think this is sci fi consider the "urban challenge" competition conducted by the US Defence Advanced Research Proejcts Agency (DARPA)

http://www.darpa.mil/grandchallenge/index.asp

Consider also a US global hawk flying autonomously across the Pacific.

http://www.spacewar.com/news/uav-01d.html

That was back in 2001! Almost pre-historic in the rapidly developing world of robotics.

As computer power becomes cheaper and more accessible, and as the knowledge base for programming autonomous robots grows, terrorist organisations will develop the capability to deploy small autonomous "robo-bombs".

Of course I wouldn't entirely rule out non-nuclear WMDs. Imagine if the London 7/7 bombers had released saran gas instead of relatively small explosives.

Steven,
Just so I'm sure what 'jocular speculations' am I responding to this time, please choose one of the following.
- Muslim terrorists under our beds (with WPDs)?
- General military weapon hysteria. A subset of the Chicken Little Proclamation?
- Or Steven Myers personal one man propaganda justification for Israel's over the top response sale (at a middle east near you)??

I'm a little confused, in one sentence you point out that the H&H rockets (not Palestinians)fall harmlessly in fields. Does this mean that you agree that Israel's response is disproportionate? Surely not.

One could argue that if the H&H did get that technology it might even up the odds a bit.Could this mean a mini MAD might exist and therefore meaningful negotiations, as equals might happen?.....nah!

Aren't the Israeli's using this technology now?

If Israel were to get this technology first does that mean that collateral damage and excesses might decrease? Nah! They'd just target the Palestinian community utilities, hospitals, schools and UN compounds. Of course there are those pesky 'unarmed peace nuts. And who cares if a few innocents die anyway.

Maybe the US can invent a mini exploding flying bomb that can seek out and able to differentiate between collateral damage and the bad guy (psst he's the one in the black hat).

We all know that Israel's response will be consistent, over the top, indiscriminate and escalated. So Steven, What do you want us to respond to?

Adendum,
I think the other fields are their look out there is no limitation in war...everyone is at risk of being killed.
Oh yes most importantly
Are these responses 'jocular' enough?

Dear old stevenlmeyer - as ever, the wannabe Michael Crichton of OLO.

Seriously Steven, you should organise some of the crap you post here into a pulp sci-fi/speculative fiction novel.

If you improve your diction and grammar - not to mention finding some kind of plot - there's every possibility that if you keep on plugging away some populist publisher might actually pay you for your efforts.

fuc the zionist/robo snake

iran got metal storm
one million rounds PER MINUTE

http://www.google.com.au/search?ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&sourceid=gd&q=metal+storm+one+million+rounds+per+minute&hl=en-GB&rls=MEDA,MEDA:2008-36,MEDA:en-GB

LOL examinator

There you are nefarious Zionist plot detector turned up to maximum sensitivity.

However, I think you are somewhat confused.

I did NOT say that my previous thread was intended to be jocular. Nor is this one intended to be jocular. The only part of my previous thread that was intended to be semi-jocular was the comment about banks employing solely female financial traders and executives.

CJ Morgan,

Sigh. The standards at OLO do keep falling don't they? ;-D

Why don’t you suggest to the powers that be that they refrain from approving my efforts?

However I do agree that I got my syntax a bit mangled this time. Thank you for pointing it out.

BTW examinator,

Israel does have WPDs.

Although I used the Israeli – Arab conflict as an example this is not really about that minor – in global terms – conflict at all. It is about the way technology will make more effective terrorism possible

stevenlmeyer,<<..this is not really about that minor – in global terms – conflict at all...>>minor...lol

<<It is about the way technology will make more effective terrorism possible>>...i think realising..who the terrorists really..are is a first step...follow those who gain..id say that land stealers love stealing others lands..thus terror to make money..[or gain advantage...like free land...they suddenly..become rightious...

and if you can make claim..that some of your kind..got injured/killed genocided..[but not by the currenntly/oppressed people]...your curently oppressing...well so much better..[worse]..but the deciet [and excuses to cause terror]reveal those of the vile

but back to those..doing the terror..are..[clearly making a proffit from their terror..[and taking leveraged positions in the stock market[like the real true multinational/terrorists did..prior to the usa equivelent of crystal nacht[911]..that set up the same/same of the stupidly/terrorist and their vairious deceptions/methods....feeding the hip pocket/gain from war/terror

I CERTAINLY DONT WANT TO CONTRIBUTE IDEAS..TO THIS..terrorist comfort/TOPIC

Steven, it may well be possible for terroists to design their own drones and "WPDs" etc.

But this doesn't stop the fact that terrorism is a political tool used for political ends. So, when considering the question as whole, we have to ask ourselves (and the terrorists too), will this technology achieve what we want to achieve? And, as you have identified with the WMDs, countries that develop these are unlikely to use them broadly because of just this reason.

I think that while WPDs may be developed by terrorists and be useful to them in limited situations, the world is not going to be held to ransom by them.

They are on a losing team, that's why they're terrorists.

I love the idea, CJ, but Steven's been beaten to the punch (and quite some time ago):

http://www.amazon.com/Texas-Israeli-War-1999-Howard-Waldrop/dp/0345277368

Yeah, Fundi flown UAV's are MUCH scarier than Fundi flown nations with nukes hell bent on ridding the planet of "Zionists". *rolls eyes*

Nukes are just part of the problem. There's power and influence that comes with them. There's the regional arms race. There's the dirty bombs technology, and much, much more.

These weapons also don't NEED to be sent by rocket. IT could be truck, boat, or plane. You may consider the nutters at the top cowards but without a rocket blipping it's way from the south east how are you going to prove where it came from?.

I think we're fairly confident that terrorists don't mind killing themselves, many innocents, and quite alot of the enemy just to make a point. Imagine the gravity of the situation if instead of 3000, we're talking about 3,000,000.

Do you REALLY want to take that risk?

Need to add. Drones need air superiority to be effective. They're not quick and rely on satellites. That doesn't make them all that cheap either. The more accurate you want the weapon the more expensive it gets.

There ARE lots of weapons out there that could cause sleeploss for the likes of yourself. Consider the Javelin weapons system. Almost the perfect guerilla weapon for various tasks.

Steven,
I guess my multi level response too arcane for you. Think Mervyn Peake.

One of my MANY points to you was Killing is killing and dead is dead it matters little how it happens, just that it does.

In truth after years in security I can give you the ultra brief executive summary.

There is no such a thing as perfect security it all depends on how badly the perpetrator wants to break it.(do you/us harm)

Don't advertise what you have or how powerful your security defense) system is. The more you do the bigger the target you present.The more complex the plan the more room for errors (see MS Windows).

In my idiom have a beer and stay low, (this applies to home security too).

For those who are interested here is some youtube footage of the winner of the DARPA urban challenge. A robot car that can navigate through traffic autonomously.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lULl63ERek0

Bear in mind this is the "Model T" of robots. There are better more sophisticated 'bots in the pipeline. As the price of computing continues to fall and the knowledge base expands these will become ever more capable and cheaper - rather like PCs.

Bugsy wrote:

"They are on a losing team, that's why they're terrorists."

For once Bugsy we are in agreement!

However as terrorists are able to acquire ever better weapons the cost of defending against them grows. This cost manifests itself in the first instance financially. But there is a subtler cost. Society becomes less free and more paranoid. The state becomes more intrusive. Surveillance grows. By some estimates there are now close to 5 MILLION CCTC surveillance camera in operation in the UK.

In Western countries the terrorists cannot win; but they can make life unpleasant.

That being said I would say that for now the level of the terrorist threat in Australia is very low.

So what, you're worried about "Skynet", or the moral of robots killing us, or terrorists flogging ideas from DARPA, or what?.

Israel gets two more German submarines
(AFP)
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j33iXawr-RpZpCmlIkVylnRAoUyg

Israel has taken delivery of two German submarines ordered four years ago,..a military spokesman said on Tuesday.

“We have received two Dolphin-class submarines built in Germany,” he said, on condition of anonymity.

The submarines, called U212s,..can launch cruise missiles carrying nuclear warheads,...although when it confirmed the sale in 2006 the German government said the two vessels were not equipped to carry nuclear weapons....lol

The subs were ordered in 2005 and delivery was initially expected in 2010.

Including the two new ones, Israel has five German submarines — the most expensive weapon platforms in Israel’s arsenal.

Germany, which believes it has a historic responsibility to help Israel because of the mass murder of Jews in World War II, donated the first two submarines after the 1991 Gulf War.

It split the cost of the third with the Jewish state.

According to Jane’s Defence Weekly, the U212s are designed for a crew of 35, have a range of 4,500 kilometres (2,810 miles) and can launch cruise missiles carrying nuclear warheads.

Israeli media have written that the Dolphin submarine could be key in any attack on arch-foe Iran’s controversial nuclear sites.

An Israeli submarine recently used the Suez Canal for the first time in June, escorted by Egyptian navy vessels, in what Israeli media said was intended as a message to Iran.

Widely considered the Middle East’s sole if undeclared nuclear power, Israel suspects Iran of trying to develop atomic weapons under the guise of a civilian nuclear programme, a charge Tehran denies.
http://republicbroadcasting.org/?p=4630

should note that vonly iran allows outside scruitiny of its nuke arseenall..israel is really secrative about allowing anyone even know it has nukes[and a launch vehicle...hope iran dont think of laying magnetic/proximinty/movment detecting/mines..loll

On the topic of automonous robots. I do not feel threatened by any autonomous robot at the moment. Army intelligence estimates that robots may achieve automonousy by 2020-2042. If we were to come under the attack of "terminators" a single nuclear blast detonated before it hit the ground would cause an EMP blast shortcircuting anything with circuts. This includes digital watches, computers, tv's, and even pacemakers. What I would be more concerned about is a computer program in charge of nuclear use. Meaning, an automatic defence response initiated by the computer. If some "bug" would happen in the computer, then it may set off a chain reaction (assuming other powers had such computers). I doubt any nation would use this technology, given the chance that the doomsday situation described above should occur. I also support nuclear arms amound the super powers. It prevents us from making conventional war with eachother.