I strongly believe Rudd will dissolve both houses of Parliament this year.
Given Turnbulls stance it is unlikely Labor can get its bill past the senate.
Lower house is no problem but the senate is.
Such an election can be called after the senate fails to pass government bills three time.
If Rudd put his bills that opposition will not pass together, and failed to pass them he would, in my view will call such an election.
After that election if Rudd is returned he can sit both houses together to pass those bills, only if his Numbers, both houses are in majority.
Not in each house but over all majority.
We are in crisis, truly much worse than most know, by 2010, election time it could be much worse.
Turnbulls throw of the dice will cost him, in my view Rudd will storm in such an election, and major party's, greens included are likely to take independents senate seats.

Over night actions both in Parliament and opposition speech's has not changed my mind, we very may well have such an election this year, will in my view.
And Rudd would win, not by miles , not controlling both houses but win.
America is spending 7% of its gross national income, we propose 2% of ours.
This bill may pass, conservatives are not the ones who hold the balance of power in the upper house.
Strange however in America, those who had power that was so badly misused, leading to this crisis are voting against Obama plans.
Is Turnbull following without a plan?
He still looks the best choice for his party but tends to take breath taking risks, his rope is not endless, he can be replaced.

Belly
I also think Rudd would win if an election was held tomorrow.

Turnbull would be mad to bring on a double dissolution (if that is indeed what he is planning). I don't think the public would thank him during this time of financial instablity. What the public wants now more than anything is stability and good policy strategies.

Rudd may be going a bit overboad on direct handouts which only serve as a blip in stimulating the economy but his increased spending on needed infrastructure will create and maintain jobs, which is essential for the economy.

Turnbull is just posturing but I think even he would realise that he risks committing political suicide if we ended up with another Whitlamesque outcome. A democracy depends on a good opposition that does not accept without question all bills put before it. There is room for negotiation.

I am not too worried Belly. The introduction of the never-ever GST did go so smoothly and I know you will remember the haggling and compromises made before being passed through both houses of Parliament.

You may be right Belly. I think it's all down to the Greens and Independents in the Senate. The question is do they feel "lucky" if they cause a double dissolution? Their "compromise Tanks" are full at the moment and maybe they're not prepared to run the risk of not passing the Bill.

Maybe Turnbull knows they will compromise an pass it, leaving him to do the old "told you so" later.

I think also that Mr. Rudd needs to produce something tangible before he can risk an election. He has made progress on some election promises but I think the public are sensing that those accomplished are at the Populist/Tokenism end of the spectrum. What do you think?

Belly,
Nah it won't happen over that...I think it will pass the minors have too much to lose to let it go that far and too much to win in horse trading.

An early election would be cynically received by the people in that he’s feathering his own nest the message would be “we are in deep hopeless do do” and he’s panicking. His image would suffer too much he’d lose seats in Reps (reduced majority) and finish up with an even less manageable senate.
Hardly what the country or the ALP needsat the moment.
In reality “Same ole same ole blustering”

I was thinking the exact thing last night while watching Turnbull on the 7:30 report. So I rushed off to read up about double dissolution elections - the trouble is that there has to be a 3 month delay between the bill being rejected twice by the Senate. In today's economic climate 3 months is like a lifetime, so I can't see how they can come back with the same bill in 3 months.

There are probably other bills they could bring back, but it would look sus to use them as the trigger when the problem is the stimulus package.

To be fair about the stimulus package - it's a bit like the bank nationalisations in the UK and the US government investment in their banks - nobody really wants it, nobody really likes doing it, but it has to be done. The private sector is reeling, job losses are mounting (we're only seeing the tip of the iceberg here) and the role of the Govt is to step in and take up the slack. Turnbull knows this, which is why I can only surmise that his opposition to the bill is purely political (which reflects pretty badly on his priorities I think).

Just my 2c