I Predict that:

By March/April the world economy will be looking resoundingly shaky!

Here in Australia the Festive Season Bonus spending spree will be well and truly over and Mortgage Defaults will be increasing rapidly!

Retail Traders and Businesses will be looking for a "hand-out" as many go to the wall, and many more shut up shop!

The full extent of the Credit Card indebtedness will now have become apparent and the Credit organisations will be calling-in outstanding debts and cutting off credit to most borrowers!

Gold will be spiralling toward a new world record!

The Motor Vehicle Industry will be feeling the downturn as expected sales plummet to an all time low. Consumers will be expecting a massive reduction in New Car prices that does not eventuate!

Fuel prices will be spiralling upwards again towards a new world record as OPEC tightens their production levels and demand a larger share of the barrel price!

Millions more across the globe will become redundant and unemployed as Governments battle to provide dwindling welfare from rapidly decreasing taxation bases. (New Taxation measures will target everyone whether employed or not)!

The war in Afghanistan ( and military presence in Iraq ) will continue as the war machine continues it`s unethical and immoral expansionism, solving some looming unemployment problems and creating enormous wealth for companies like Halliburton and Global Resources!

The US will continue to "turn a blind eye" as Israel continues it`s State-sanctioned system of genocide against the Palestinians!

The US and Israel will implement a pre-emptive strike against "suspected nuclear munitions plants" in Iran!

Barack Obama turns out to be another "wolf in sheep`s clothing" and fails the millions across the globe who have hoped that he would implement wide-ranging changes to world stability and the proliferation of human rights!

This then is my prediction of events that COULD take place in 2009.
You will note that I have NOT mentioned "Global Warming" as that subject is just too complex an issue!

Happy New Year to ALL! ( Eat, Drink and Be Merry for tomorrow....?)

“By March/April the world economy will be looking resoundingly shaky!”

Um, I thought that happened last October

Mortgage default increase… yes and an opportunity for some

Disagree, no handouts for retailers despite some certain to flatline

Credit card debt will remain as is, some will drop, some increase but CC issuers don’t make money by refusing credit…

Gold is the traditional safe-haven, what will happen is the US dollar will fall and thus make it look like gold is increasing… that will help Australia, as a gold exporter

Motor car industry down turn happened 6 months ago. Likely GM and Chrysler will go into chapter 11, GM will close a number of plants likely Canadian ones first, get rid of some badges, like they did with Oldsmobil and develop better four cylinder cars.

Fuel prices will stabilize around $50/barrel OPEC members know they cannot sustain $100 /barrel and need to let the market settle or watch its own economies wither.

Taxes will be hiked, Australia with Carbon tax disaster. The arrogance of the socialists will ensure they ignore the failure of their past market meddling.

I am unsure how you tax someone without an income… maybe Cuphandle can explain that.

Job opportunities will change… capitalist countries will adapt faster than the moribund socialist states and will thus reap any benefit going from innovation (as usual).

Following the success of the surge in Iraq, a similar strategy will be deployed to bring winning in Afghanistan closer.
Israel will prevail over the indiscriminate and murderous atrocities of Hamas and Hezbalar rockets.

One of these days the Camp David peace accords, signed between USA (Carter), Israel and Palestine will be honoured by the Palestinians just as it was implemented by Israel.

US will not do anything about Iran.

Barack Obama will be seen as a stooge.

Global warming will be disclosed as a complete fraud but Krudd & Co will still push ahead with a carbon tax.

All in all not a bad prognosis, personally I will be pursuing my plans of the past few years, financially secure and looking for bargains

For Australia at least the crisis will not be as bad, superannuation returns for the year will be negative again.
Not as bad as the last and again positive by Christmas.
Obama will be tested by the usual suspects but be even more popular this time next year.
One day, surely we know? North Korea or Iran, some country playing poker with its peoples lives, will see cuphandle scenario take place, maybe this year.
India will not be the only country in south east Asia to suffer terrorist attacks.
So we must face the fact we are not safe even here, I hope this is not the year mindless hate and bigotry harms Australia.

The wars and earthquakes and famines and diseases Written about in Luke chapter 21 and Matthew chapter 24 will continue in 2009.

Society will continue to slide backwards into decay and immorality.

People will worry and become more fearful...BUT some...some will hear the Call of God and be Drawn by The Holy Ghost to lively christian churches and there they will give their lives to Jesus Christ the Saviour and become born again and finally set free from the fear of lifes troubles and of death.

Aint it marvellous:)

Will you become one, who called on the Name of the Lord to save them?

Good grief! What are you guys going to drink at midnight? Hemlock?

My predictions for 2009 are:

The sun will continue to rise in the East and set in the West,

Whether genetically modified, raised on human sewerage or fertilized with chemicals, flowers will continue to bloom even in places no human eye ever looks,

Couples will continue to believe that no-one else in the world has ever loved the way they do, and think that love conquers all,

Breezes will continue to blow on moonlit beaches after hot, sticky days,

Little kids will still present their parents with crayoned drawings and pasta necklaces and wilting wildflowers in sticky hands,

Parents will continue to tape crayoned drawings on the fridge, wear pasta necklaces and fill vases with wilting dandylions,

On each of the 365 days of 2009 somewhere a baby will smile at someone and make their life meaningful,

Mango juice will continue to run down peoples chins, dragon-flies will contnie to have iridescent wings and willows will continue to gaze in awed contemplation of themselves in rivers,

and people will still get zits on their noses the size of a second head the day before they go on a date, make their first appearance on tv, or run unexpectedly into their ex.

Best wishes for the year ahead. c

Gibo Gibo, rest assured man is in control ,has always been will always be.
Your moral decay has existed along with us and will continue to.
Your fears are others pleasures.
All the good things Romany tells us about will live shoulder to shoulder with our troubles, we will survive.
I have re read the thread, cuphandle has it by passed you that interest rates fell over the cliff last year?
While credit card debt will continue to haunt us, one day harm us, house loan failures will even out.
Australia will see less unemployment than most of the world but we will be better of by years end.

Cuphandle, you have just recited the last three months of the courier mail's 'scrap book'. If you wish to make predictions, please stick to something that 'has not yet happened'.

Gibo, there are sheapards (leaders) and sheep (followers)

By all means keep following this 2000 year old myth and enjoy your journey as one of his sheep. I will continue to lead the way in my world as I don't look for guidence from some superiour being that suposidly died 2000 odd years ago and exists only in the minds of people like you and your fellow sheep.

I think we need a new OLO for 'god botherers only'.

Belly
I agree with much of what you say however my main concern is that we as a nation, with a very small population, rely heavily on exports to maintain our current way of life.

If OS demand drops to much then I fear we will be hit very hard indead as very little of our live stock or resourses are consumed 'in-house'.

The other problem we face is the reality that the $1400 for seniors and the $1000 for each child that has just been handed out, and spent in most cases, was a 'one off'.

Come Febuary 1 is when reality will hit and we will soon see who are capable of surviving.

If you talk about really hard times long and hard enough,that is what you will get.Expectation does tend to be a self fulfilling prophesy.

Talk down the economy and people stop spending,thus you are putting your own job at risk.Kevin Rudd and many economists and doing a good job of this.I can only assume that the cashed up in our society want to create more hardship,thus more bargains for themselves.

So long as people keep spending,the jobs will be there.This current behaviour just demonstrates how stupid human beings are.We cannot even understand our own economy and race around the planet shouting doom and gloom on both environmental and economic fronts without having all the facts or understanding of how these systems work.

Times will be tough ,but we are just making it far deeper and longer than needs to be.This is not the 1930's and we have access to much more information.So why not have a positive outlook and seek solutions not problems.

Romany, that was a wonderful post! A big gold star for you :)

just maybe rechtub those cash give aways have more than one impact.
First those in need genuine need, for the first time in years had a good Christmas.
Has to be worth it doesn't it?
And bravely giving it in a lump sum has to be good for the economy.
My wish?
Means test all social security.
that means me too!
we can increase those rates so continuing to live without pain is possible.
This ALP welded on trade Unionist, is sick of the waste some of that cash funded.
Arjay, we are not talking the economy down, surely talking about what has happened and will happen is not that?
we humans come in all shapes and sizes all brands all faults built in.
Right now people are looking at dept they gathered over Christmas, more credit they must repay.
as they walk away from lost homes other will buy at reduced prices
end 2009 shares rebound , not back to highs but billions recovered.
we will take the short term loss but be better by Christmas.

Yabby - thanx for that: I am wearing my gold star plastered across my forehead.

Seems to me that so many people seem driven by fear: fear of change, fear of losing what they have, fear of Other.It seems a tragedy that those who have achieved things in their lives still don't let themselves take unalloyed joy from the experience, but spend more time than ever speculating about what would happen if the future sees their apple-cart get tipped over.

The one truly great thing about losing everything is that one is no longer afraid. Once the worst that could possibly happen happens, there is nothing further one could ever be afraid of.

And through it all the tide keeps on ebbing and flowing, butterflies continue to pollinate, and you know for certain that when a tree falls in a forest it makes a really loud noise. The world, with or without one in it, goes on.

Its the kind of miracle everyone, regardless of creed, can appreciate.

It makes me genuinely sad that, for some people, even the birth of yet another new year of this planet's existance is not seen as a wild, exultant triumph completely independant of their own personal frameworks.

From some of the comments above, I suspect 2009 will be just another 12 months of opportunity for many to reinforce their prejudices and hatreds. Not willing to be part of a solution, they will simply remain part of the problem.

I suspect and hope that Romany will have a good year.

Wobbles “I suspect 2009 will be just another 12 months of opportunity for many to reinforce their prejudices and hatreds. Not willing to be part of a solution, they will simply remain part of the problem.”

Maybe wobbles has forgotten, we are still free to choose our prejudices

Some of us sincerely believe the product of too much government meddling is what crisis we now face

Some of us believe the ‘problem’ would not exist if governments stopped trying to direct the will of the electorate, who it is supposed to represent amd the solution is less government and more freedom of choice for the individual.

Things like first-time buyers bonus, grandstanding handouts to selected segments of the nation are examples of government largesse through extortion taxes.

If individuals were left with the money in their pocket to spend as they wished, the result would be more disposable income and more people working in real jobs generated by the electorate, rather than jobs for privileged car union members at the expense of the choices of the motoring public.

But as for opportunity… some see it and benefit, others are just blind.

I guess wobbles has told us he needs a white cane

Dear Cuphandle,

I hope that you're wrong in your rather
gloomy predictions.

This is just the beginning of the New Year,
give it a chance to develop.

I believe in our current Government, and in
their ability to govern for the country's good.
So, I'm more optimistic about our future.

I also have faith in the newly elected
American President. Things can only improve there.

As for the current military conflicts - hopefully,
these too will slowly be resolved by diplomatic
means, under the guidance of the more pragmatic
world leadership, such as Australia and the US.

Romany is to be Congratulated for her marvellous response.
And I fully agree, we need more positive thinking in
this world.

Now more than ever, at the beginning of this New Year 2009.

Romany:

I apologize if my statement of "Prediction" was contrary to your views, but unfortunately for us all I have based my predictions on past history on this planet, and I cannot envisage that we are likely to see even an infinitismal improvement in the current situation!

Yes!.....we should ALL be celebrating the birth of a New Year, but not for the reasons of joy and happiness, but for the simple fact that this planet has somehow miraculously managed to survive another year without totally destroying itself!

I have followed very carefully political history and the financial repercussions resulting from historical political events, and arrived at my predictions due to the fact that invariably any change that may occur, or be implemented across the planet generally, is in the long term and in the light of day a change for the worse!....Have a good look what we are doing to each other, look at what we are doing to the animals and our environment and then consider the fact that all over this planet men, women and children are being murdered, raped and tortured, then tell me that we have to accept this all with a smile on our face and pretend that "all is well!"....SORRY!

Col:

You asked me to explain how they can tax a person who is unemployed?....the answer is simple: Little Johnnie`s GST.

Stand by for another of my predictions,....that they will increase the rate of GST at the next Budget by up to 20%!

Cuphandle… “You asked me to explain how they can tax a person who is unemployed?....the answer is simple: Little Johnnie`s GST.”

Yes I realized after I had asked :- )

and also council rates, property taxes yep we have many taxes not based on income.

I was in favour of VAT when it was introduced into UK and so too GST. GST spreads the burden of tax across the consuming population, those who get only government handouts are taxed less from their limited means than those who earn their income from productive activity, which seems fair to me.

“Stand by for another of my predictions,....that they will increase the rate of GST at the next Budget by up to 20%!”

I doubt that, despite OEDC requests and if it did, income tax would be scrapped.

However, under the rules I believe and correct me if I am wrong, it requires the unanimous support of all the states and whilst West Australia is a non-socialist state, hopefully to be adjoined by other centers of sanity in the near future, the rate will remain 10% - although who knows what model the KRudd & Co will choose for their carbon trading tax,

I always remember Margaret Thatcher’s opinion to taxation and government meddling…

“The larger the slice taken by government, the smaller the cake available for everyone."

She was spot on the money there.
Who really “appreciates” the “largesse” of government, when no one understands the nature of bureaucrats and the powerful manipulations which go on behind closed doors, compared to spending those extorted tax monies on whatever we wished and needed?

I also disagreed with a few more of your predictions Cuphandle, hopefully we can debate those points to

Cuphandle – I see no reason for you to apologise to me. And I take no issue with your predictions.

You are entirely correct in pointing out that this year is going to be tough and I’m sure that your analysis is sound. This was, in fact, the very reason I posted as I did.

Many people are facing this year in trepidation that it will contain a downward spiral – for those balanced on the cusp this could prove disastrous. They are scared.

For some this will provide great opportunities – so for them my posts are meaningless Pollyanna-babble. Of course I realize this.

However, some people are going to have to do more than simply tighten their belts – they’re going to lose them. Some who hit rock bottom dash themselves to pieces on those rocks and never recover. Even a small drop defeats others.

Many people live in a milieu where social standing is of great importance: what they have defines who they are. This is a societal truism whether one agrees with it or not. So for many people facing 2009 the fear is not just that they will face a drop in living standards, but their entire identity and standing in the community will change. That can be terrifying.

Another frightening aspect of impending downward change is that people do not respect those who are poor. Another social truism and one that many hesitate to voice. Lack of societal respect leads to lack of self-respect and it is at this point that you hear of people jumping out of windows or biting bullets.

Anticipation is the worst: stage fright, battle fright, exam nerves. So my post was merely intended as a boost to the human spirit which, amazingly, is so much more resilient than we realize.

I am a pragmatist who clearly sees what we have made of our world. It is precisely for this reason I rejoice that we have made it through thus far and been granted the dawn of another year

Romany
Excellent post.

Yes Romany has lead the debate in this threads posts that are unbeatable.
And I think I see the scars of some hard times in her posts.
Let us not ever forget such times have not been around for many of us for a while, but never gone for others.
Cuphandle 20% rise in GST?
Come freind never!
We are in the hardest of times, for some, they will only find that out themselves this and the next year.
But others will prosper, build great fortunes, by having the cash to buy at basement prices.
We should be in a deep depression, the world not just us.
Like young newly weds who undervalued money in an afford to keep up with standards they can never pay for ever.
The world money markets went mad.
But the difference western security demands we rebuild our economy's.
We will.
In my childhood we ate bread and dripping, if we had it, some may go to those levels again but I think not.
By years end we will know if cuphandle is right or me, a share revival will be here in this month next year maybe 6 months before.
Much of the crisis is being paid for by people who did not bring it about , my 14.9 superannuation loss for one.
those who thought debt was a way to a better life will suffer but we will be ok.

Col,

We are free to see what we want to see and believe what we want to believe but as Johann von Goethe said - "None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free".

Hi.The things which you have said as a predictions of 2009 are
the past of 2008 and the are still continuing in year 2009.Hope it will end very soon an the year 2009 just eradicate these issues.

Nash

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Wobbles "None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free".

And like Lenin said, “where there is freedom there will be no state and where there is the state, there will be no freedom”

Such views are wrong.

Those who are least free are the ones who sold out their individuality to a belief that government would do something for them. They sold their individuality to the state, supposedly for an easy, safe, secure and predictable life.

Personally, I prefer to be free to live my life as I see fit, accept the risks, the ups and downs, to speculate how much I will earn next year and how I will spend it and not in accordance with some government plan for mediocrity.

So wobbles there is one undying truth which you a (suppose its too late for Johann) should understand -

You will get nothing from government which you could not get sooner and with less effort through your own efforts and endeavours. But you are not alone, lots of other fools think similar to you.

- And Johann von Goethe, isn’t he the fella who also said

“I have given up the search for truth and am now just looking for a reasonably adequate fantasy”?

Col, while we're on about Goethe, I believe the opening lines from Faust were "a man sees in the world what he carries in his heart."

Given that many seem to be feeling in their heart that we're in for doom and gloom, that's probably the kind of year they'll have.
From a philosophical level I can only concur with Romany's posts. Ultimately, Australians will survive, even if they see hard times.

There will be some in the world who don't, crisis or no crisis. So before we begin wailing, lets take stock for a moment.
I know it's cliched, but when we look beyond our borders for even a little while, we see that other parts of the world won't be able to feel the crisis, not because they're insulated, but because things have been grim for so long that it could scarcely get worse. Think of what things are like in Zimbabwe and Sudan.

However, in terms of the economic crunch, the people I feel for are those in the recently developing economies of India and China. Recently an atmosphere of hope reigned, but as the crunch hits, the governments of those countries will give employers free reign to treat employees how they wish (and it was already pretty loose) in order to attempt to continue this growth pattern.

For all this, I feel somewhat sanguine.
By the standards of some places, I don't have a huge amount to lose. By the standards of others, I have more than my share of material possessions.
I mightn't be rich in money, but I'm rich in experiences and I've always been able to stand on my own two feet.
I don't fear the unknown as many do, usually I seek it out.
Each day I see others who struggle to achieve what comes easily to me, so I can only look to the future with optimism tempered with a little caution.

Ultimately, things will continue. As Romany points out, the sun will continue to rise. Children will continue to laugh and naysayers will always warn of impending doom.

TLTR “while we're on about Goethe,” –

You should probably address your comments to wobbles, he is the one who brought the fella into conversation

“Given that many seem to be feeling in their heart that we're in for doom and gloom, that's probably the kind of year they'll have.”

Speaking personally, I am looking forward to a very good 2009. The doom and gloom was dispelled for me because of actions I undertook in 2008.

Mind you being told I could not get at my superfund monies, even if I wanted to, was largely beyond my control but I do not let what is beyond my control drive me.

I seek no help or handouts from government (but will not turn them down, the bastards have taxed me enough in the past). I see no point in paying tax only to be the favoured beneficiary of socialism’s acts of rank bungling patronage, I would rather not pay the tax in the first place.

I could see myself echoing your words –

“I mightn't be rich in money, but I'm rich in experiences and I've always been able to stand on my own two feet.
I don't fear the unknown as many do, usually I seek it out.”

My only annoyance is it seems those who lack the wit to think about the consequences of their actions and plan for any future seem to be the major beneficiaries of the “leveler politics” where we, the ones with foresight and acumen are unfairly burdened for our prudence.

Anyway, pleased to hear you have your hand on the tiller of your own destiny :-) better to trust ones own judgment than the shilly-shally of talk-is-cheap politicians.

Col:

I don`t know whether you happened to have read yesterday`s Sunday Mail,... the headline: "LUCKY STATE - Queensland to lead way in economic fightback- A thousand new jobs a week and a flood of interstate migrants will ensure Queensland continues to power ahead despite the economic downturn"....State Treasurer Andrew Fraser said!

The question I ask is,... how is Queensland going to "power ahead" and provide a thousand jobs a week, whilst at the same time flooding the place with interstate migrants, most of whom, hopefully, will need jobs, or are they all going to go on the dole? .....What about the Queenslanders who are currently being made redundant from their jobs as a result of the economic downturn?.....What about the many thousands of school-leavers?

I would suggest that Fraser`s statement is simply pre-election hyperbole and he and his cronies are that far up in the clouds that they should be on oxygen!

We should be hearing how this government is planning to shore-up the rapidly failing infrastructure and a few words of truth, instead of the tired old rhetoric and broken promises!

This state does NOT need any more interstate migrants, especially the low socio-economic migrants that we have been burdened with in recent times!

This statement might upset a lot of people, but I don`t care, simply because I DO CARE and I do not want to see this state disappear down the gurgler, thanks to a bunch of glory-hunting would-be politicians!

Cuphandle I think you and I are possibly reading from the same page.

There are lies, damn lies, statistics and the

Politicians

There is an old saying

Anyone over the age of 20 who is not a socialist has no heart.
Anyone over the age of 25 who is not conservative has no head.

To add to that generality I would suggest

Anyone who has grown their second set of teeth should have wisdom enough to understand that government does the bidding of politicians and

Politicians lie.

So what else should anyone expect from government?

Successful government is smaller government, where the hubris of politicians is curtailed, their taxing capacity reduced and their authority limited to that area encompassed within the brim of their hat.

I would agree with you Queensland might be the sunshine state but that will not stop the cold of an economic winter.

“This state does NOT need any more interstate migrants, especially the low socio-economic migrants that we have been burdened with in recent times!”

What can I say, when I live in Victoria apart from

We don’t need ‘em back either.