Foxy

I concur with your observations about Melbourne traffic. Even though railway carparks are stuffed full to overflowing by city commuters, even though Eastlink has been opened (for the cashed up) our roads are still congested.

I used to really enjoy driving and am sorry that my days as a petrol-head are over. But the combination of price and the lack of road sense of many motorists have taken the fun and pleasure away.

Apart from being much cheaper, driving skills would be improved dramatically if EVERYONE road a motorcyle before driving a car - gives you a real perspective on what defensive driving really means as well as making motorists more aware of motorcycles.

*May I ask what in the world bought oil down to todays prices?
Or for that matter what took them to $147?*

Belly, what you are seeing is market economics in action!
What you had last year was something like 124 countries
with over 4% growth. There are simply limits to the amount
of oil that can be pumped, so we have to learn to stop
wasting the stuff. Price will achieve that.

The US, the largest wasters, as fuel is cheapest there,
is finally waking up. So you have had some demand destruction
there, plus in every market where fuel is not propped up by
subsidies. No doubt that includes Australia to some degree,
as people think twice about where they drive and why. All
good stuff!

Fact is that now GM and Ford are both close to broke, as people
stop buying gas guzzlers. So every car company is busy reinventing
itself. Virtually every major car company is flat out designing
a hybrid plug in car. Many models should hit the shelves in 2010.

What you will have is cars that run the first 100km or so on
battery power, charged up from your mains system at home, at
night, when there is excess power anyhow. Most people drive less
then that a day. For longer trips, they will have a small engine
which charges the batteries. So the next step after the Prius
is not far away. Get used to the future!

Why do you think that less traffic is such a bad thing? We can't
keep going as we are, just adding more millions of cars to the
roads every year globally. Those oil wells simply can't keep us,
so we might as well face it and deal with it.

Belly,

Yabby may well have hit the nail right on the head with this statement:

"What you will have is cars that run the first 100km or so on
battery power, charged up from your mains system at home, at
night, when there is excess power anyhow. Most people drive less
then that a day. For longer trips, they will have a small engine
which charges the batteries."

That's what made your thread and position with respect to the proposed NSW power sell-off (read 'sell-out') some time back so important.

The public in Australia, and particularly so in NSW, already own outright both the generating assets and much of the marketing organisation with respect to electricity supply. Necessity being the mother of invention, here in Australia where the car is, and must always remain, king, we are as a community looking at the prospect of making 'peak oil' largely irrelevant in both the near and long term. The sell-outs you have pointed out would hand this wholly owned, about to enormously expand, business opportunity over to international cartels virtually gratis! 15 Billion dollars is virtually peanuts compared to the value of being seen to have successfully given the finger to Big Oil and all of the dependencies that go with it. What is the turnover of the oil industry in Australia per year? Whatever it is, THAT is what is about to be walked away from as a business opportunity, primarily for the NSW-generated electricity business.

Keep watching the doughnut Belly, not the hole. There will be much unjust pain, as you foresee. That, unfortunately, is the price of decades of dereliction of duty and susceptibility to deception on the part of governments of all complexions throughout Australia.

Well done Belly. You've had the guts to call your own mob on this.

BTW, what was/is 'Iguanagate' REALLY about? Negating the influence of John Della Bosca (of whom I am no fan, BTW) within the NSW Labor government because of his reservations with respect to the power sell-out, by any chance?

Gday FG and yabby.
That last question FG?
Well your are right it takes guts to dump on your own.
I am not able to hide who I am here.
But a woman as handy as an ash tray on a Harley.
And a competent bloke who loves his wife too much.
May I say this.
My pride and passion for my ALP is the very reason I dump on this disgusting mob.
The sure and certain understanding without near instant change this state is bound for as much as 20 years of conservative government.
Yabby, I understand but why have those controlling oil prices changed their minds?
No real drop in use has taken place.
In fact as prices drop use rises.
Why the price drop?
We will get better fuel efficient cars as a result of $147 oil.

I'd be interested to hear Yabby's answer to your question about the price drop for crude oil, too, Belly. His answer is probably likely to be more convincing than the one I am about to suggest. I hope I am not cutting him off or stealing his thunder, but in I go.

I think the price rise was a manipulated 'try-on'.

I think Big Oil was watching reactions, particularly in places like Australia, that are currently very dependent upon liquid petroleum fuels, in order to assess the maximum the market would bear without collapse. What I think they saw was a sea change in grass-roots attitude that surprised them: a determination to make whatever changes were necessary to negate as much as possible the effect of the increased prices in the short term, and an irrevocable determination to end the dependency in the intermediate to long term. In short, a confrontation with their customers.

They blinked first. They realized that they had tried to put up the price too much, to the point where they had provoked conscious decisions at all levels amongst their erstwhile customers to axe dependency upon oil from their wells.

Whether we, as an Australian community have yet realized it or not, they have realized we are potentially capable of totally replacing them as suppliers of liquid petroleum fuels, and that what we may do will likely be able to be imitated world wide. And that the ownership of that production capability could remain 100% in Australian hands.

Initially, instead of petrol bowsers; charging points, not on their land.

Subsequently, two, to Big Oil, terrifying words: Fischer-Tropsch. Synthesised liquid fuels.

"Quick, get the crude prices back down before the damn Aussies go one better than the South Africans, and show what can be done. Quickly, man, before they wake up. Make sure it is not worth their while to substitute us."

I'm not waiting for Yabby's new hybrids. I'm planning retro-fitted trailed gas producer-powered electric charging units driving transmission-mounted electric motors on my existing vehicles.

*Yabby, I understand but why have those controlling oil prices changed their minds?
No real drop in use has taken place.*

Belly, in don't believe that just a few control oil prices. There
are many many things that influence the price of oil. Speculators
amplify those things, both up and down.

The latest stuff that I read said that there had indeed been a drop
in consumption in the US, as airlines cut flights, trucking cut back,
etc. Right now you have the recession word mentioned loudly, when
it comes to the US, Europe and Japan. You don't need much cut back
in demand, to affect the price of a commodity. Look at wheat, it
has fluctuated 30% down in the last few months. Nickel has dropped
dramatically, so has zinc.

Weather plays a role, you only need a storm in the gulf and prices
change. Politics plays a role. You only need tension in Nigeria
or another threat of America bombing Iran and prices change.
The present price drop was in fact predicted by the market, the
notion of 100$ or so was quite possible again in the short term,
but not in the long term.

The American Dollar has risen by about 10% recently, another
influence, as most countries buy their oil in $.

IIRC about 60% of oil is controlled by National oil companies,
ie those owned by their Govts, not by Shell, BP etc.

No doubt some of those Govts are taking note of the huge US election
push by both candidates, to hybrid plug ins. Its a big issue all
through America and will no doubt affect the price of oil in the
longer term. Not so much reduce it dramatically, but at least
stop it from heading for 2-300$ a barrel.