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The Forum > General Discussion > Fuel Prices and Empty Roads

Fuel Prices and Empty Roads

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Traffic is very sparse on our interstate roads.
Service stations are no longer 24 hours some even closed.
The impacts could be much greater than any of us think.
Has fuel become so expensive we only use it if we have to?
Will tourists flock to the north this year?
falling oil prices are in part being swallowed up by our falling dollar.
In truth the idea that 5 cents a liter of fuel tax can fix the problem is a joke.
If fuel fell 40 cents many would continue to use only the fuel they must.
A good outcome? for some but tourism?
Posted by Belly, Thursday, 14 August 2008 6:26:20 AM
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can't explain it but it's the total opposite here in FNQ [Daintree] where I actually live in a Caravan Park [OK I know, just Trailer Trash!] and I took a photo yesterday outside my door of 5 huge Victorian Rigs ie Tooak Taxi with $500,000 monster caravan all lined up [spewing out choking fumes] bidding for the one spot left in the park

Double the tourists of last year

Must be the effect of Costello taking our money to pay public servants from the Future Fund - they certainly have money to burn and could not care if fuel was $3/l

anyone left in Victoria, or did last bloke turn lights out?
Posted by Divorce Doctor, Thursday, 14 August 2008 9:58:24 AM
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Divorce Doctor,
Say hello to my daughter up there(She's the hippy one). :-)

I think that the fuel cost issue is adversely effecting the overseas tourists (the ones that spend a lot) Pt Douglas hotels are bleeding.

Belly is right 5cents off petrol is not worth the effort except to the poor, disadvantaged, who drive older cars less efficient vehicles because they're cheaper to buy. But their fuel is 10Cent per ltr more expensive. Many if not most of these folks are on a fixed income and because of available housing live some ways from reliable or any public transport.

Then there's the polution etc do we need it? tragically its impact isn't counted as a cost by governments.

The reason for the price being so high is clearly because of those who profit from the sale of oil and products. Excluding of course the poor indepentent Service station. Who relies on in shop trade to make a profit. The petrol discount vouchers by the big super markets are hitting that too.
Examinator's second law of Corporate Capitalism "He who IS the biggest p...k get to the s...w whoever, when ever they want". And all the rest of us can do is learn to run fast :-(
Posted by examinator, Thursday, 14 August 2008 10:30:48 AM
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I live in Brisbane and usually commute daily from the suburbs to my practice in the city. Over the past 6 months I've actually noticed an increase in traffic congestion.

I think petrol prices would need to get a fair bit higher for there to be a truly noticeable and permanent impact on road usage. People will do without other things, before they do without their cars.
Posted by samsung, Thursday, 14 August 2008 1:19:24 PM
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Traffic in Canberra is pretty much the same and the public transport system is so woeful that most that would use buses in a larger city don't use them here.

I have noticed that traffic on country roads is less, even when travelling to the coast (and even if you factor in that it is Winter). Rising costs of fuel, rents and groceries as well as high levels of debt all play a part I would think.
Posted by pelican, Thursday, 14 August 2008 4:10:40 PM
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This is a timely thread for me Belly as I’m just about to embark on a trip across the top of the country. You’ve reminded me that I should regularly inquire as to whether all the roadhouses as marked on the maps are still functional.

Last year I travelled across the country via the Nullarbor. I thought that it could well have been my last opportunity. A couple of months ago it was looking as though it was the last opportunity and that my planned Kimberleys and Pilbara trip this year wouldn’t happen due to rapidly rising fuel prices.

But then fuel suddenly stopped increasing in price and actually went down a little, which was impossible to foresee…and a very pleasant surprise indeed. So I’m off. But I reckon that this will definitely be the last opportunity to do a big road trip.

.
Divorce Doctor, there are plenty of tourists passing through Townsville at present, lots in Port Douglas and Cairns, but very few in Mission Beach and Magnetic Island, and numbers are down in Airlie Beach as well.

So it is a strange sort of mix. But I don’t think fuel prices have had much of an effect…yet. No doubt there are lots of people who foresee the prospects of long-distance road travel to be very limited in the near future and are grabbing what they see as probably being the last opportunity.
Posted by Ludwig, Thursday, 14 August 2008 10:34:08 PM
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In Melbourne you would notice a big difference,
if anything - the traffic conjestion has grown
worse. Cars, every where you look, at any time
of the day or night.

Since the Eastlink opened up, traffic on
suburban streets has increased. It's bumper-to-bumper,
even in off-peak periods.

Motorists now tend to buy their petrol on
"Cheaper Days." (usually, Mondays, Tuesdays,
and Wednesdays), and if you've got a voucher -
it's cheaper still.

Tourism in this city doesn't seem affected at all.
So far at least.
I'm seriosuly thinking of investing in either
a bicycle or a skooter.
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 14 August 2008 11:06:57 PM
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OOOOPS, my apologies for the typo.
I meant to say, "seriously." :)
Posted by Foxy, Thursday, 14 August 2008 11:15:56 PM
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My grand daughter and her partner run a motel in Alice Springs. Business I'm told is booming. It's not their best year, but they are still doing very well indeed. They rely on the tourist/motorist trade, especially the Adelaide to Darwin drivers. It seems people are still using their cars for long distance tourism, despite the very high NT petrol prices.
Posted by philips, Friday, 15 August 2008 1:30:52 AM
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I travel about 400 klm a day at work.
On the NSW Pacific highway and New England.
I worked on the Pacific for 22 years.
Winter traffic has never been so slow.
My intention in the thread was to highlight possible long term changes in the way we use fuel.
And the impacts on us all.
Not fuel prices or oil shortages but real impacts as a result of prices.
Less than 40 klm from the coast and 250 from Sydney my area is usually flooded with wintering Victorians, caravan parks and such are suffering.
National discount supermarket chains are charging 7 cents more for all fuels on the coast than they charge 40 klm inland?
A brand new service center closed its doors after 3 months, others have seen large multi national food sellers close and fuel prices well above average as they fight to stay in business.
There are impacts we will see more.
I am sure most will agree fuel would need to be under a dollar be for we stop considering it too expensive.
The silent road is awesome only the sound of speeding trucks trying to get an extra load in this week to pay fuel cost they can not raise rates to cover is heard.
Posted by Belly, Friday, 15 August 2008 6:14:27 AM
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Dear Belly,

Rising prices of oil is a result of the current
instability in Iraq and Iran. Oil companies and
Governments are not about to lose their big
profits or revenue. Until the US wakes up and
negotiates with the Arab oil producing countries
the situation will never stabilize.

In the meantime our Government is proposing fuel
watch which might marginally assist the transport
industry but not the average motorist.

In Melbourne, Mondays, Tuesdays and Wednesdays,
petrol is on average 15 cents cheaper than the rest
of the week. With fuel watch, that benefit would be
lost and the weekly price would be averaged out which
would be the equivalent of the Government proposed
fuel watch.

Sensible planning of trips eliminating duplication,
fuel purchases on the cheaper days, would financially
benefit the average motorist. Unfortunately, the
transport industry does not have the luxury of such
planning.

The Government could introduce a service of employment
trading, where workers of identical work interests could
trade places for jobs closer to their homes thus reducing
travel times, road conjestion, and petrol expense and
pollution. In the US it is quite acceptable for people
to chase employment cross-country and re-locate for that
purpose. We could try that here. That would minimise long
distance travel to work and could possibly allow people
to live closer to places where they previously enjoyed
spending their holidays. For example, people could move to
Brisbane to work because they enjoyed holidays on the Gold
Coast.

Of course the problem lies in persuading people to change
their lifestyles, which as we know can be difficult.
Posted by Foxy, Friday, 15 August 2008 11:00:55 PM
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Its a beautiful sunny day the silence on the road out the front remains.
Traffic should be near heavy but it is near non existent.
What ever the reason we are in interesting times.
I do not see a return to how it was even ten years ago.
Fuel is unlikely to fall below a dollar, at that price it is no longer a throw away product.
Half our country towns need tourists.
Our small highway towns run on it.
In time smaller new fuel cars will bring back the Sunday drive, not yet.
peak oil over taxed or any conflict we are not seeing a return to days now gone.
May I ask what in the world bought oil down to todays prices?
Or for that matter what took them to $147?
Posted by Belly, Saturday, 16 August 2008 7:04:45 AM
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Foxy

I concur with your observations about Melbourne traffic. Even though railway carparks are stuffed full to overflowing by city commuters, even though Eastlink has been opened (for the cashed up) our roads are still congested.

I used to really enjoy driving and am sorry that my days as a petrol-head are over. But the combination of price and the lack of road sense of many motorists have taken the fun and pleasure away.

Apart from being much cheaper, driving skills would be improved dramatically if EVERYONE road a motorcyle before driving a car - gives you a real perspective on what defensive driving really means as well as making motorists more aware of motorcycles.
Posted by Fractelle, Saturday, 16 August 2008 7:14:06 AM
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*May I ask what in the world bought oil down to todays prices?
Or for that matter what took them to $147?*

Belly, what you are seeing is market economics in action!
What you had last year was something like 124 countries
with over 4% growth. There are simply limits to the amount
of oil that can be pumped, so we have to learn to stop
wasting the stuff. Price will achieve that.

The US, the largest wasters, as fuel is cheapest there,
is finally waking up. So you have had some demand destruction
there, plus in every market where fuel is not propped up by
subsidies. No doubt that includes Australia to some degree,
as people think twice about where they drive and why. All
good stuff!

Fact is that now GM and Ford are both close to broke, as people
stop buying gas guzzlers. So every car company is busy reinventing
itself. Virtually every major car company is flat out designing
a hybrid plug in car. Many models should hit the shelves in 2010.

What you will have is cars that run the first 100km or so on
battery power, charged up from your mains system at home, at
night, when there is excess power anyhow. Most people drive less
then that a day. For longer trips, they will have a small engine
which charges the batteries. So the next step after the Prius
is not far away. Get used to the future!

Why do you think that less traffic is such a bad thing? We can't
keep going as we are, just adding more millions of cars to the
roads every year globally. Those oil wells simply can't keep us,
so we might as well face it and deal with it.
Posted by Yabby, Saturday, 16 August 2008 2:45:05 PM
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Belly,

Yabby may well have hit the nail right on the head with this statement:

"What you will have is cars that run the first 100km or so on
battery power, charged up from your mains system at home, at
night, when there is excess power anyhow. Most people drive less
then that a day. For longer trips, they will have a small engine
which charges the batteries."

That's what made your thread and position with respect to the proposed NSW power sell-off (read 'sell-out') some time back so important.

The public in Australia, and particularly so in NSW, already own outright both the generating assets and much of the marketing organisation with respect to electricity supply. Necessity being the mother of invention, here in Australia where the car is, and must always remain, king, we are as a community looking at the prospect of making 'peak oil' largely irrelevant in both the near and long term. The sell-outs you have pointed out would hand this wholly owned, about to enormously expand, business opportunity over to international cartels virtually gratis! 15 Billion dollars is virtually peanuts compared to the value of being seen to have successfully given the finger to Big Oil and all of the dependencies that go with it. What is the turnover of the oil industry in Australia per year? Whatever it is, THAT is what is about to be walked away from as a business opportunity, primarily for the NSW-generated electricity business.

Keep watching the doughnut Belly, not the hole. There will be much unjust pain, as you foresee. That, unfortunately, is the price of decades of dereliction of duty and susceptibility to deception on the part of governments of all complexions throughout Australia.

Well done Belly. You've had the guts to call your own mob on this.

BTW, what was/is 'Iguanagate' REALLY about? Negating the influence of John Della Bosca (of whom I am no fan, BTW) within the NSW Labor government because of his reservations with respect to the power sell-out, by any chance?
Posted by Forrest Gumpp, Sunday, 17 August 2008 11:22:27 AM
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Gday FG and yabby.
That last question FG?
Well your are right it takes guts to dump on your own.
I am not able to hide who I am here.
But a woman as handy as an ash tray on a Harley.
And a competent bloke who loves his wife too much.
May I say this.
My pride and passion for my ALP is the very reason I dump on this disgusting mob.
The sure and certain understanding without near instant change this state is bound for as much as 20 years of conservative government.
Yabby, I understand but why have those controlling oil prices changed their minds?
No real drop in use has taken place.
In fact as prices drop use rises.
Why the price drop?
We will get better fuel efficient cars as a result of $147 oil.
Posted by Belly, Monday, 18 August 2008 7:57:56 AM
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I'd be interested to hear Yabby's answer to your question about the price drop for crude oil, too, Belly. His answer is probably likely to be more convincing than the one I am about to suggest. I hope I am not cutting him off or stealing his thunder, but in I go.

I think the price rise was a manipulated 'try-on'.

I think Big Oil was watching reactions, particularly in places like Australia, that are currently very dependent upon liquid petroleum fuels, in order to assess the maximum the market would bear without collapse. What I think they saw was a sea change in grass-roots attitude that surprised them: a determination to make whatever changes were necessary to negate as much as possible the effect of the increased prices in the short term, and an irrevocable determination to end the dependency in the intermediate to long term. In short, a confrontation with their customers.

They blinked first. They realized that they had tried to put up the price too much, to the point where they had provoked conscious decisions at all levels amongst their erstwhile customers to axe dependency upon oil from their wells.

Whether we, as an Australian community have yet realized it or not, they have realized we are potentially capable of totally replacing them as suppliers of liquid petroleum fuels, and that what we may do will likely be able to be imitated world wide. And that the ownership of that production capability could remain 100% in Australian hands.

Initially, instead of petrol bowsers; charging points, not on their land.

Subsequently, two, to Big Oil, terrifying words: Fischer-Tropsch. Synthesised liquid fuels.

"Quick, get the crude prices back down before the damn Aussies go one better than the South Africans, and show what can be done. Quickly, man, before they wake up. Make sure it is not worth their while to substitute us."

I'm not waiting for Yabby's new hybrids. I'm planning retro-fitted trailed gas producer-powered electric charging units driving transmission-mounted electric motors on my existing vehicles.
Posted by Forrest Gumpp, Monday, 18 August 2008 2:52:53 PM
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*Yabby, I understand but why have those controlling oil prices changed their minds?
No real drop in use has taken place.*

Belly, in don't believe that just a few control oil prices. There
are many many things that influence the price of oil. Speculators
amplify those things, both up and down.

The latest stuff that I read said that there had indeed been a drop
in consumption in the US, as airlines cut flights, trucking cut back,
etc. Right now you have the recession word mentioned loudly, when
it comes to the US, Europe and Japan. You don't need much cut back
in demand, to affect the price of a commodity. Look at wheat, it
has fluctuated 30% down in the last few months. Nickel has dropped
dramatically, so has zinc.

Weather plays a role, you only need a storm in the gulf and prices
change. Politics plays a role. You only need tension in Nigeria
or another threat of America bombing Iran and prices change.
The present price drop was in fact predicted by the market, the
notion of 100$ or so was quite possible again in the short term,
but not in the long term.

The American Dollar has risen by about 10% recently, another
influence, as most countries buy their oil in $.

IIRC about 60% of oil is controlled by National oil companies,
ie those owned by their Govts, not by Shell, BP etc.

No doubt some of those Govts are taking note of the huge US election
push by both candidates, to hybrid plug ins. Its a big issue all
through America and will no doubt affect the price of oil in the
longer term. Not so much reduce it dramatically, but at least
stop it from heading for 2-300$ a barrel.
Posted by Yabby, Tuesday, 19 August 2008 4:02:04 AM
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If you believe that petrol prices are going to get to $8 a litre then you are taking your round Australia trip now while you can still afford the petrol.

On a trip up the NSW coast I was surprised at the large amount of road works, and have noticed that there are a lot of road works in Melbourne as well.
It now takes me 15 minutes longer to complete a 45 km commute than it did last year.

I think people are starting to plan for a big hike in fuel prices, I know I bought my current car because it is cheap enough to throw away when fuel prices get too high, if it has resale value when I have finished with it [and I love my car] - that's a bonus.

Why don't I save fuel now you ask - well for years I caught public transport on principal and public transport users really are treated like second class citizens

plus my car gives me an amazing amount of freedom to go where I want unconstrained by having to ask for lifts or fit into inconvenient timetables or just plain hitch hike [so unbecoming in the mature person]
Posted by billie, Tuesday, 19 August 2008 5:53:51 PM
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F.G. and others,
The big swing in oil prices was predicted before the
current run up in prices from $40 a barrel.

A number of books and articles that I have read dating from 2004 say
that the first symptom of peak oil will be high volubility in the oil price.
It appears to be caused by a near shortage occurring and the price
making a large rise.
This has caused poorer countries and individuals in
richer countries to cut back on their consumption.
This causes a fall in the price to a new "stable" price until a
further near shortage occurs and then the cycle repeats, each time
cranking up the price to a new level and dropping out another poor
country and more users in richer countries.

Look at the power problems in Pakistan and a number of African
countries, their power stations run on fuel oil mostly and they are
having problems to pay for the oil. A little while back the Pakistan
government had to pay the power companies fuel bill.

Both City Rail in Sydney and the suburban rail in Melbourne are
reporting increased patronage in the millions a year.
As this has occurred only in the last two years then I believe it
must be laid at the door of petrol prices.

This is a permanent condition and will only get worse.
A stop gap will be plugin electric cars but in the long term, say
15 years, it will be public electric transport or bicycles.

Has anyone else noticed that Virgins share price has dropped through
the floor and Macquarie has sold Copenhagen and Brussels airports ?
They also are not going to bid for Chicago airport.
They are calling it a restructure, well maybe, but I would have
nothing to do with aviation myself.
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 21 August 2008 3:46:01 PM
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A nasty in the PC, why would anyone want to do that?
kept me from the thread.
fair enough yabby but in truth why from 147 to 114 so quickly?
In the long run we will be better with new fuels and better cars but we have been used by those making money from oil.
Posted by Belly, Saturday, 23 August 2008 8:52:16 PM
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*but in truth why from 147 to 114 so quickly?*

Belly, if you follow commodity markets, those sorts of fluctuations
are quite common. Some are in fact much larger. Its a true Darwinian
"survival of the fittest" out there in commodity land.

I don't think that anyone controls it, I think that there are just
an awfull lot of people, all acting out of self interest. All these
decisions have an effect on supply/demand and price.

Thats why we get these major overshoots in these industries.
For instance rock phosphate, used for fertilisers. Fertilser
manufacturers drove the price down to 50$ a tonne in 2005-2006.
Many miners could not make it pay, so closed down, particularly
in the US. Now there is a spike in demand. So the price has
shot up to 500$ a tonne! Of course the lag time to bring a new
mine on stream is many years, so the price of fertiliser has
increased by 300% in a short time. Alot of farmers are now
wondering how they can keep producing meat etc, as fertiliser
is a major input cost.

Oil is much the same. In the late 90s oil was down to 10$
a barrel, so nobody invested in new oil fields or discoveries.
Nobody invested in oil drilling rigs etc. As one expert
recently stated "we can't just stick a straw in the ground
to suck it out". Very true. Alot of those projects have 5-10
year lag times. In a sense, we are now paying a high prices,
as oil was too cheap in the 90s.

For those interested, there is a page in this weekend's
Financial Review, discussing plug in hybrids. Its all coming
down to massive research in battery storage technology, which
is now finally happening and looks promising. Its certainly
the car of the future, with fuel costs of 2c or so a km.
Posted by Yabby, Saturday, 23 August 2008 10:26:47 PM
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No doubts about your post yabby it says much the same as I think.
But if fuel becomes a plug in and 2 cents?
What happens to the trillions invested in oil?
And will the self interest of those who control power in all its forms let us of the hook?
In my lifetime I have seen brand new industry's that never existed come to life.
And ones we thought would be with us forever shrink or even die.
But tens of millions of service stations?
We are seeing the very start of a very big change in the way traffic is no longer what it was even a year ago.
Posted by Belly, Sunday, 24 August 2008 8:22:04 AM
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Belly,

Your words: "What happens to the trillions invested in oil?
And will the self interest of those who control power in all its forms let us of the hook?"

The fault is not in the self interest of those who control power (particularly electrical power),
but in ourselves, if we get to be underlings and kept on the hook!
For presently we ourselves, at least nominally, control power (particularly electrical power) in NSW.
And NSW effectively dictates the price that most other generators of power in Australia can charge.
Our NSW Parliamentary representatives, on both sides, may be about to sell us all out, Belly,
as you well know.

Where is the ghost of Sir Philip Game?

And before that, where is an Her Majesty's loyal Opposition worthy of the name?

Yabby speaks of 2 cents per kilometre for fuel. Look at this OLO article: http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=7662 In it Kevin Cox makes this statement: "Ignoring the capital costs, the ongoing cost of running a geothermal power station is about one cent per kilowatt hour. This is at least less than half the cost of running fossil fuel power stations." We could be a spit away from having electric power at something like its cost in Canada, on a sustainable basis. We'll be keeping our cars, don't you worry about that!

Kevin Cox seems to be saying "pay 4 cents more per KwH for electricity and the "privatised" power generation industry can supply us sustainable supplies, at a price unspecified."

Why not have all consumers (including the aluminium smelters) pay 4 cents more per KwH for electricity and continue to own the industry ourselves?

I'm not trying to push Hot Rock in South Australia, good and all as it may look. I understand there are hot dry rock prospects in the upper Hunter, adjacent to the existing generation capacity and distribution network. As we phase out coal fired capacity, replace it with HDR and/or solar pondage.

Read this: http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=5616#75599
Posted by Forrest Gumpp, Sunday, 24 August 2008 2:06:21 PM
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*What happens to the trillions invested in oil?*

I think that should be the last of your concerns Belly :)

I think that what will change in the future, is that energy will
come from many sources, rather then a limited few, as now.

Its going to take a long long time to change over, it will be slow,
but it will happen, as change is the most permanent thing in life.

You are correct, its amazing how the world has changed, since I was
a kid.

The thing is, it needed a huge spike in oil prices to cause the
pain for people to bring about change, particularly the Americans.
I see that their oil consumption has dropped by 800'000 barrels
a day, according to the BBC. That is not to be sneezed at and
that is only the start. The Yanks realise that oil imports
could bankrupt them even further, so are bringing about that change.
They simply can't afford that 700 billion a year for oil imports.

Oil has many uses, driving cars is just one of them. What diversity
of energy will do is lessen the monopoly that OPEC and the Russians
presently have, to virtually name their price for oil. So I think
that is all positive. Electric plug ins will be great for the
car and our freedom to drive where we please, to recharge that car
by solar, off peak, etc. But I think that things like trucks, tractors
and other high torque equipment will keep using oil.

So the Arabs and Russians are not about to cry poor, any time soon.

The big question remains, how many resources that China will gobble
up, as it grows. An article in the Weekend Australian states
that China will consume as much steel in the next 10 years, as
America used in the entire 20th century. So we live in interesting
times!

.
Posted by Yabby, Sunday, 24 August 2008 2:10:08 PM
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Yabby and Forrest I agree with every word from both of you.
In fact I think even if oil dropped to $90 we have reached the point of no return.
New fuels better economy from our cars ext is coming.
We in fact thought we would not see petrol at $1 and found it too much at that price.
Our wake up call is the first of many.
But the fact is changes will not all be noticed until well after they happen.
Tourist traffic will be less.
Road transport is shattered by bankruptcy's and impending death of owner driver trucks.
More change to come in that area as deaths involving trucks increases.
Ten years from now? it will be interesting.
Yabby the trillions to be one day lost in the oil industry's is more likely to come from our pocket than any other.
Just look at the huge losses in superannuation this year as a result of others unwise lending.
Posted by Belly, Monday, 25 August 2008 8:34:48 AM
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Ooh Belly, I would not panic about superannuation just yet. Most
companies would have their assets spread over many industries and
many companies. In the energy field, Australia has coal, gas etc,
all rising values, as they find more energy equity with oil.

Your super fund would also include shares like BHP, who are making
record profits. The price downturn has been mainly in financials
and property trusts. The market has devalued bank shares by around
30-40%, despite the fact that they are still making the same profits.

Its just a few of the foolish companies, who borrowed far more then
was wise, who now have a problem. As Warren Buffet says "its only
when the tide goes out, that we see who is swimming naked" :)

Yup, truckies have a problem, for they are like small farmers.
There are thousands of them, each having little power. A few
large companies decide most of the pricing and they have to wear it.
They play the little guys against each other.

Meantime I am also pleased at present developments. What it means
is that you can forget the concrete jungle as the only way to live.
Urban sprawl is the way to go! People will be able to chuff
around in an electric vehicle, repowered by solar energy, to their
hearts content, all without the oil well owners earning a cent.
That sounds pretty good to me!
Posted by Yabby, Monday, 25 August 2008 10:31:24 PM
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Yes and I travel to work today in the firms car powered only by LPG.
370.000 on the speedo never had work on the motor.
We could do worse than use what we have plenty of instead of petrol LPG.
Posted by Belly, Tuesday, 26 August 2008 6:39:20 AM
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Yabby;
Don't be so complacent about the super funds and other
investment funds.
I wrote to several where I have savings invested and asked them
what steps they were taking to mitigate the effects of peak oil and
the subsequent depletion.
All the answers were from their standard answer sheet no 12567

"We have people who study market trends and keep the fund advised of trends".

Not one of them suggested that they have any specific plan regarding
peak oil and energy plans in particular. One of them seemed to think
I was talking about global warming.

My son is a senior financial planner and he has been to many industry
conferences. In only one case by only one speaker was peak oil mentioned and that was in passing.

These are the people who are managing your money !
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 26 August 2008 11:20:47 AM
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Actually they don't manage my money Bazz, as I run my own super
fund. I feel that their charges are too high and its not rocket
science after all, as long as you have an interest in basic
economics.

Frankly I don't think it would be wise if super funds started trying
to predit the future, for as we have seen in the past, people are
invariably wrong and that is how many of them lose every penny.

The idea is that super funds spread their risk over many asset classes
and many industries. So most super funds have a stake in most
industry sectors, from retailing, to mining, to banking.

What we have had recently, was a change in the value of money.
It was far too cheap for far too long, so assets became overvalued
and the fundamentals were ignored. The result was that when the
cost and availability of money increased, (due to the American finance
scandal) inflated asset values came crashing down, to more realistic
levels.

Long term, the value of super funds is linked to the value of
our economy and the global economy. That is because today workers
basically own most of industry, through their super funds.

If industry and the economy crash, so does the value of those
super funds.
Posted by Yabby, Tuesday, 26 August 2008 2:23:53 PM
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Yabby,
Well I don't have a super fund so I split it between some
investment trusts and direct shares.
I have been moving slowly from general industrial to more concentration
on energy in one form or another.

I find that I don't want to spend a lot of time investigating companies
trying to untangle their reports to get to the truth so I have up to
now relied more on funds.
However with the work my does has I can get useful information as
he has access to research.
Yes, I agree with your comments re the current situation.
However my worry about the funds is that they are not looking for the
signs of peak oil. Like most people they seem to be blissfully unaware.
I went to an AGM and had the opportunity to speak with one
of the top people in that fund manager and I had to explain the
meaning of my question about peak oil. That was when I wrote the
letters.
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 26 August 2008 2:47:54 PM
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Bazz, an article that might interest you.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/INTERVIEW-David-Mills-HVUVT?OpenDocument&src=sph

Clearly David Mills and Ausra are moving ahead in leaps and bounds,
with solar thermal becoming very competitive with gas and coal
etc. The development of that kind of technology can change the
future of the whole energy market!

That is actually Australian technology, taken up and developed
by Californian venture capital.

I pondered for a long time, about why this sort of ting did not
get developed further in Australia. My conclusion is that we
lack enough seriously rich people!

Super funds, by their very nature, playing with other peoples money,
cannot afford to throw all risk to the wind and follow their instincts
and passions. Seriously rich eccentrics, accountable to nobody but
themselves, have no problem with that. That was really the case
with Mills and his backers. California is loaded with those kinds
of technology savvy billionaires.

Anyhow, its great news for energy, great news for electric cars
and great news for people who love the freedom to travel where they
want, in their own set of wheels. Its also great news for people
who enjoy airconditioning :)
Posted by Yabby, Wednesday, 27 August 2008 4:39:11 PM
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